Chinese Economics Thread

Anlsvrthng said:

Can you please point out where I said that the economics laws are like natural laws?

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"All 'natural law' actually result of repeated observation, and if an observation has the same expected result (by the theory) again and again, then after six sigma confidence it become 'natural law'."
This is literally the first sentence of your last post. Are you brain-dead?

Anlsvrthng said:

Further, can you point out when I said that there are real natural laws, and not just simply theories supported by six sigma observational evidence, and generating falsifiable experiments?[

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Yeah, your last sentence, in English, indicates that you think that theories observed again and again become natural laws.

Anlsvrthng said:

Further, I think it is easy to recognise that it is not possible to collect six sigma evidence for anything that happens in economy on macro level, simply because you can not make experiment that falsify it, and the supporting ones has too small number to give even low sigma values.

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OK, this is you attacking your own use of these "analyses." Works for me.

Anlsvrthng said:

I thought that it is easy to make this connections, but looks like it is not : P

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When everybody else doesn't see the connection and you do, it's time to evaluate your sanity.

Anlsvrthng said:

So, practically you saying that China is an unicorn , born from the dirt of Europe and the hermetic magic of ancients, and because she is an Unicorn the rules that govern other countries are not bonding her : P

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You need to leave the images that you see after heavy drug use out of this discussion LOL. "Unicorn" "dirt of Europe" "Magic of ancients" are not terms that I use. I said that China is very unique and can succeed in ways that the West cannot understand or predict, which is really just a historical statement given how China has developed so far. If unique systems that have capabilities beyond your understanding qualify as a unicorn with magic, then yes, that's what China is. But once again, there are no rules of economics that govern anything. Until you understand this, you cannot discuss economics intelligently.

Anlsvrthng said:

Maybe it an be interesting how the magicians of the CPC made it : P

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It's very interesting. The West watches awestruck at this "magic" everyday of how someone can do things not the Western way but still succeed. It's likely not only magic, but probably also infused with the Force from Star Wars

Anlsvrthng said:

Anyway, it is a cargo cult like mentality, making a " magical elder leader" who can solve everything : P

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The biggest cult mentality is in the West, where people think that they have found the only way to success and when others find another way, call it "magic."

Anlsvrthng said:

Alan Greenspan was exactly like this, Gandalf with the Wisdom of Elders, until he supervised the second biggest meltdown of the USA economy in the past hundred years, after spending his life as "economical scientist" in his amber tower, surrounded by his apprentices in the hermetic science : D
Since no one talk about him like "maestro" or the artist of interest rate : D

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Alan Greenspan is not Chinese so you can discuss him on the US economic thread. I stopped reading when I saw "Gandolf" and then "Wisdom of the Elders." This joke born out of your ignorance has dragged on too long. I don't play Dungeons and Dragons or other weird crap like that so I can't follow anymore. I'm sure you're enjoying this fantasy world you're making but I'm not on board.

Anlsvrthng said:

anyway, there are few things that works in the economy like magic :
1. basic accounting . No one can escape it : D. If A+B=C then C-A=B. the consumption vs gdp works exactly like this. Falsify it require fight against few thousand years of basic math.
2. Politics. The macro economy steered by politics, not made up rules by the Greenspan kinds of paper makers. Reason why we see the explosion of debt of the Chinese households. Falsify it require proving the saint like mentality of politicians/business owners : )

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1. Accounting is accounting and economics is economics. It seems that you know so little of economics that not only can you not distinguish it from a hard science, you don't even understand the difference between accounting and economics! You can get by in accounting with basic math, but accurately predicting economic future is something that no math equation can do.
2. Macro economics is steered by politics, ok. The slight growth (LOL an "explosion" of 1% a year? Imaginative diction you've got there...) of Chinese debt with massive growth in GDP in the backdrop of the massive growth of debt and slight growth of GDP seen in developed Western economies is a result of the superiority of China's unique policies, or by your definition, "magic." LOL

Anlsvrthng said:

The leftover of your post has no real analysable text,beyond the rainbow of Unicorn.

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The entirety of your post has no analyzable or sense-making text, which is why even the pro-US posters on this forum cannot give you a thumbs up. I see this is LSD Friday for you since you can't stop talking about Unicorns or magic. Whatever keeps you alive, I guess...

Anlsvrthng said:

Generally about "natural laws", by the current standing of QE there are only simplified rules / patterns that we can use to predict the outcome of certain experiments/ processes, thank for the very low temperature and gravitational curve of our universe.
So, if we steering away a bit from this "island of stability" that is our small and narrow universe, the nature become absolutely unpredictable, and the "laws" that govern her become fractal like, practically random functions, with small changes making completely different, unpredictable outcomes.
Sadly.
C'mon, there is no "natural law" that describe the motion of 3 object in the gravitational field of each other .
Or the QM can make good equations for 2d events, the marginal problem is our universe is not flat : P

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LSD Friday overdose... You write this brain vomit and accuse others of presenting no analyzable text?? Go to the hospital.

now I read
Economic Watch: China's foreign trade maintains steady growth in first 9 months
Xinhua| 2018-10-12 18:52:49

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China's foreign trade remained stable in the first nine months with improved trade structure, customs data showed on Friday.

Foreign trade rose 9.9 percent year on year to 22.28 trillion yuan (about 3.23 trillion U.S. dollars) during January-September, according to the General Administration of Customs (GAC).

Exports increased 6.5 percent in the period to 11.86 trillion yuan while imports grew 14.1 percent to 10.42 trillion yuan, resulting in a trade surplus of 1.44 trillion yuan, which narrowed by 28.3 percent.

By and large, China's foreign trade growth in 2018 remained steady with progress witnessed, and the country has been advancing the high-quality development of its foreign trade, Li Kuiwen, spokesperson for the GAC,told a press conference.

In the first nine months, exports and imports of products under the general trade category, which are differentiated from processing trade, gained 13.5 percent from a year ago to 13.02 trillion yuan, accounting for 58.4 percent of the total foreign trade, 1.9 percentage points higher than the same period in 2017.

The country's trade with major trading partners saw an increase during the January-September period. Trade with the European Union, its largest trading partner, climbed 7.3 percent, and trade volume with the U.S. and ASEAN countries increased by 6.5 percent and 12.6 percent, respectively.

Export of electric-mechanical products increased by 7.8 percent to 6.91 trillion yuan, taking up 58.3 percent of China's total export value.

China has taken measures to readjust its export structure, with exports of automobiles and machine tools expanding 16.3 percent and 18.7 percent, respectively.

In the January-September period, China imported 336 million tonnes of crude oil, 64.78 million tonnes of natural gas and 24.59 million tonnes of refined oil.

Imports of iron ore and soybean dropped by 1.6 percent and 2 percent to 803 million tonnes and 70.01 million tonnes, respectively, during the same period.

Meanwhile, China's overall import price has grown by 4.2 percent. Major bulk commodities, including crude oil, natural gas and copper, have seen an increase both in volume and price.

Li Kuiwen attributed the increase in imports to the government's favorable measures, including tax cuts, policies to optimize the business environment and tariff reductions.

He projected China's foreign trade to maintain stable growth with improved quality and efficiency, as the country is deepening supply-side structural reform, strengthening its inner dynamism, facilitating trade and diversifying its market.

Foreign trade in the fourth quarter is expected to slow down due to a higher comparison basis, plus instabilities and uncertainties in global environment, he said.

China posted a GDP growth rate of 6.8 percent in the first half of this year, which has remained between 6.7 percent and 6.9 percent for 12 consecutive quarters.

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Jan to Aug production figures of industrial robots with over 101k compared to 130k produced for all of 2017,
Software industry revenues in Jan to Aug at 574 USD up 14.8%, profits up 12.1%,
Aug production of up .9%, naturgal gas production up 9.6%, refined crude up .4% and consumption up 5.9%,

Cutting Prices

Passenger-car purchases by dealerships declined 12 percent to 2.06 million units in September, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said. That leaves the market up just 0.6 percent for the first nine months of the year, and the association said fourth-quarter comparisons from 2017 are challenging. Still, CAAM stuck to its prediction that the market will show growth for the full year.

12% and 1.5% decline in car production means big stock at the manufacturers.


However, this is contrary to a report from a different analyst on Oct. 11. In that report, Ming-Chi Kuo said that Apple was mostly immune from a 10 percent to 15 percent decline in the Chinese market for smartphones, due to not just the new models, but the improvement in the technology year-over year.

If Apple sees any decline in its last quarter of its fiscal year, it may be short-lived. In the Oct. 11 report, Kuo claimed that factors contributing to the decline in China brands beyond innovation issues are consumer faith shaken by a potential trade war, customers sticking with "more affordable legacy iPhone models," and the imminent release of the iPhone XR.

Hall is expecting Apple's holiday quarter sales to hit 80 million units, with 16 percent of that from China —down from 19 percent in the holiday quarter of 2017. This is a bit lower than the current consensus of between 81 million and 85 million.

now I read
China moves to boost private investment
Xinhua| 2018-10-14 22:05:45

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Chinese authority has intensified efforts to encourage private sectors to participate in infrastructure investment in seek of healthy economic growth.

By the end of September, at local level, some 1,222 infrastructure projects worth at least 2.5 trillion yuan (362 billion U.S. dollars) have been promoted among private companies, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China's economic planning agency.

Private companies have shown cooperation intention in 150 projects worth at least 250 billion yuan, the NDRC said in a statement on its website.

At the end of September, private companies inked eight airports construction agreements with investment totaling nearly 50 billion yuan.

Infrastructure projects comprise of energy, transportation, highway, garbage disposal facilities and reservoirs.

The country's private investment, which accounts for more than 60 percent of the total fixed-asset investment, rose 8.8 percent year on year in the first seven months of the year, and 8.4 percent in the first half of the year.

At the end of 2017, private businesses accounted for more than 60 percent of China's GDP and provided more than 80 percent of urban jobs.

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Anlsvrthng said:

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Cutting Prices

Passenger-car purchases by dealerships declined 12 percent to 2.06 million units in September, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said. That leaves the market up just 0.6 percent for the first nine months of the year, and the association said fourth-quarter comparisons from 2017 are challenging. Still, CAAM stuck to its prediction that the market will show growth for the full year.

12% and 1.5% decline in car production means big stock at the manufacturers.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

However, this is contrary to a report from a different analyst on Oct. 11. In that report, Ming-Chi Kuo said that Apple was mostly immune from a 10 percent to 15 percent decline in the Chinese market for smartphones, due to not just the new models, but the improvement in the technology year-over year.

If Apple sees any decline in its last quarter of its fiscal year, it may be short-lived. In the Oct. 11 report, Kuo claimed that factors contributing to the decline in China brands beyond innovation issues are consumer faith shaken by a potential trade war, customers sticking with "more affordable legacy iPhone models," and the imminent release of the iPhone XR.

Hall is expecting Apple's holiday quarter sales to hit 80 million units, with 16 percent of that from China —down from 19 percent in the holiday quarter of 2017. This is a bit lower than the current consensus of between 81 million and 85 million.

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I suggest any "news" from Blomberg be considered crap like anything from peter navarro or gordan Chang. They basically just proved themselves as CIA mouthpieces.

And anyone quoting from it have to put a giant propaganda disclaimer. Global times, xinhua, BBC, fox, FT, etc can pretty much h all get that disclaimer.

PiSigma said:

I suggest any "news" from Blomberg be considered crap like anything from peter navarro or gordan Chang. They basically just proved themselves as CIA mouthpieces.

And anyone quoting from it have to put a giant propaganda disclaimer. Global times, xinhua, BBC, fox, FT, etc can pretty much h all get that disclaimer.

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The number is interesting from it.
September is the start of the big car sale in China.

now noticed the tweet





Yang Huiyan, vice-chairwoman of Country Garden, ranked first on the list of richest Chinese women for the sixth consecutive year with $21.7 billion in wealth, according to Hurun Richest Woman in China 2018 released on Tuesday.

Aug 3, 2018

vincent said:

And the government regulator caught it

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now





Changchun Changsheng Life Sciences Ltd was fined 9.1 billion yuan ($1.32 billion) on Tuesday for the recent vaccine scandal by the China Food and Drug Administration (CFDA) and Jilin Food and Drug Administration

Vehicles sales in China declined 11.6 percent year-on-year to 2.39 million units in September of 2018, following a 3.8 percent drop in the previous month. It is the third consecutive annual fall in vehicle sales and the biggest decline since a 26.4 percent slump in January of 2012. The drop comes amid Chinese economic slowdown and trade war with the US. Considering the first nine months of the year, vehicle sales rose 1.5 percent year-on-year to 20.49 million. Total Vehicle Sales in China averaged 1034475 from 1997 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 3060271 in December of 2017 and a record low of 88416 in January of 1998.