Trade War with China

Status
Not open for further replies.

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Here is a good illustration of that illogical demand from from professor Matt gold
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Matt Gold, law professor at Fordham University and former deputy assistant US Trade Representative
The Chinese are not likely to negotiate with President Trump because he imposed retaliatory tariffs and national security tariffs on Chinese goods in violation of WTO rules to which the United States, China, and 162 other WTO member countries are bound. In trade diplomacy governments will not negotiate to stop a country from taking WTO-illegal actions, for two reasons.

The first reason is illustrated by the two guys who walk into a car dealership. First guy tells the salesman if you don’t lower the price of that car by $2,000, I’ll take my money down the street. Second guys says to the salesman, if you don’t lower the price of that car by $2,000, I’ll break your legs. The first is negotiation. The second is extortion. Why? Because the first guy is threatening to do something he’s legally entitled to do. The second is threatening to do something that he’s not legally entitled to do.

The United States’ retaliatory tariffs are WTO-illegal because President Trump failed to follow the WTO’s retaliation process, to which the U.S. is legally bound. Following that process would have guaranteed that China would not have retaliated against our retaliation. Instead, China would have negotiated for a solution during the process, or we would ultimately have been granted the legal right to retaliate. President Trump’s unprecedented refusal to follow this process precluded the Chinese from negotiating, guaranteed that they’d retaliate to our retaliation, and undermines all of the global trade agreements on which the global economy relies.

The second reason is illustrated by the guy and his 12-year-old son who walk into the television store. The guy pays the owner $800 cash for a TV. But when he and his son try to carry it out of the store, the owner and a security guard stop them. “I own this TV now,” says the guy. “That is correct,” says the owner. “You paid $800. So you now own it. But, you have to pay me another $800 cash if you want to take it out of the store.”

What are the chances that the guy, in front of his son, is going to just pay another $800? Pretty much zero. He’ll call the police if he thinks they’ll be effective. He’ll try to handle it on his own, if he thinks the police won’t be effective. But, there’s virtually no chance that he’s going to just reach into his pocket and pay a second time. China previously “paid” the United States by making concessions to the US in exchange for which the United States took on the obligations in the WTO’s Dispute Settlement Understanding — which require us to follow the WTO’s retaliation process. China also previously “paid” the United States by making concessions to us in exchange for which we took on the obligations of the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, Articles II and XX – which preclude the US from imposing the recent national security tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum.

Thus, President Trump is telling China that, even though the Chinese already paid the US to take on certain obligations, they now have to pay us again to get us to fulfill those obligations. What are the chances that China is going to just sit down and negotiate the amount they’re going to pay to secure US fulfillment of obligations China’s already paid for? As a former US trade negotiator, and leading expert in this part of international law, I can tell you that it’s pretty much zero.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
It's a bunch of bull where the West charges transfer of technology as stolen technology. The US has a ban on selling China advanced technology. If US companies are handing over technology to China, it certainly isn't advanced and definitely not stolen. They don't have to transfer technology but they do it because wanting access to the Chinese market is worth it. It's not advanced technology or the US would've filed charges against the US company because they broke the law but they're portrayed as the victim. Hollywood likes to tease China saying they'll go to India if China doesn't treat them fairly. Fairly? Do Chinese movies have 40% of the US box office every year like Hollywood movies have in China? No. All non-English language foreign movies together made less than 5% of the US box office. What's fair to them is unrestricted access and more than 50% of the box office going to them. They don't take their ball and go home or some place else because they're greedy and want money. That can't happen if they're not in China. That in a nutshell is why China will eventually be the winner in a trade war. Americans are greedy for money and will always want in on China. China not being allowed in on doing business in the US is already happening whether from US law or outright prejudice by consumers. There's hardly nothing to charge a tariff on China since real Chinese companies are hardly a presence in the US.

Oh yes like an article that just came out said, China should be cautious about any alliance with the EU because they'll eventually stab China in the back. They were speaking of how the US and the EU will likely pass a deal before the US has one with China and don't expect the EU defending China to Trump. The EU was harsher towards China in other areas like human rights because the West had to evacuate Iraq. Their words. China wasn't involved nor forced them to send troops but they had to save face by punishing China for not making those same bad decisions. Oh yes it increases the likelihood of military conflict because when that doesn't work, the US will have to work to directly undermine China in some fashion in order to stop China's march forward and that most likely would be considered an act of war if someone were doing that to the US.
 

SteelBird

Colonel
It's a bunch of bull where the West charges transfer of technology as stolen technology. The US has a ban on selling China advanced technology. If US companies are handing over technology to China, it certainly isn't advanced and definitely not stolen. They don't have to transfer technology but they do it because wanting access to the Chinese market is worth it. It's not advanced technology or the US would've filed charges against the US company because they broke the law but they're portrayed as the victim. Hollywood likes to tease China saying they'll go to India if China doesn't treat them fairly. Fairly? Do Chinese movies have 40% of the US box office every year like Hollywood movies have in China? No. All non-English language foreign movies together made less than 5% of the US box office. What's fair to them is unrestricted access and more than 50% of the box office going to them. They don't take their ball and go home or some place else because they're greedy and want money. That can't happen if they're not in China. That in a nutshell is why China will eventually be the winner in a trade war. Americans are greedy for money and will always want in on China. China not being allowed in on doing business in the US is already happening whether from US law or outright prejudice by consumers. There's hardly nothing to charge a tariff on China since real Chinese companies are hardly a presence in the US.

Oh yes like an article that just came out said, China should be cautious about any alliance with the EU because they'll eventually stab China in the back. They were speaking of how the US and the EU will likely pass a deal before the US has one with China and don't expect the EU defending China to Trump. The EU was harsher towards China in other areas like human rights because the West had to evacuate Iraq. Their words. China wasn't involved nor forced them to send troops but they had to save face by punishing China for not making those same bad decisions. Oh yes it increases the likelihood of military conflict because when that doesn't work, the US will have to work to directly undermine China in some fashion in order to stop China's march forward and that most likely would be considered an act of war if someone were doing that to the US.
This remind me some warning on Facebook some time ago; the warning said if you buy things in Thai airport's duty free shop, and they offer you some free gift, you should ask them to include the free gift in the receipt, or when you walk away from the shop, the security guard would catch and accuse you for shoplifting (true or fake, not important). Now the US have transferred their technology (I don't care if these technology is advanced or not) or their companies for money; how come Mr. Trump (not the whole US) could accuse China for stealing? What is Mr. Trump's definition for stealing? Paying money for something in return? If Mr. Trump doesn't know English, teach him! That's called "buying"!
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Trade is being used as leverage. This is not about unfair trade. Stealing is a push button trigger word for the public to go along to cover-up the fact that Trump's trade war is really about getting China to agree not to advance in technology so the West will be the only ones in control of new technology. Just like Trump is evoking patriotism to keep farmers in line and accept the pain from tariffs. Why don't they follow their beliefs China can't innovate. If China can't innovate, there's no worries that China will advance in technology. That's where the spin on stealing comes in to get people on board because everyone knows stealing is bad. Tariffs on Chinese technology won't work because they don't buy Chinese technology in the first place. Look at that entire market around the world to sell to exclusive to China that the US doesn't want to have that technology. ZTE is an example that they don't bother to cover-up of how they'll hold China hostage by denying technology in order to make extortion demands on China. The West wants to control technology and who gets it. China isn't going to abide by their rules because they're designed to serve Western interests only. It would be hypocritical for China to go along with withholding technology that they wouldn't sell to China themselves. And you can see how they expect China to undermine itself by giving them that much power over China. In trade for what? Western acceptance? Worthless to anyone who doesn't value Western acceptance. Hence why they want everyone in the world to embrace Western values because then it will be like turning lead into gold and be the most valuable thing anyone could ever want. Let China's neighbors chase after fool's gold hence why they're so vulnerable to US power.

No trade with the US is better than giving in to what the US demands. You think if the US demanded its allies not to do business with China, they'll go along? That only gives power to the US to abuse allies more like what Trump is doing with them right now. They'll have no cards to play.
 

Franklin

Captain
The reason why I think that the US will loose this trade war is because the Americans are simply overlooking serious economic problems at home.

First of all the trade deficits are the result of a economic structure where more than 70% of GDP is generated by consumption and just over 20% is generated by production.

Secondly the US is overlooking a MASSIVE asset bubble at home. Since the so called recovery in 2010 productivity in the US economy has only been growing at about 0,6% a year on average while asset prices like real estates, stocks and bonds have been breaking new records. This shows you that capital in the US is being taken away from its productive parts and handed over to the speculative parts of the economy. The bubbles and debts in the US economy are larger today than they were back in 2008.

The US has more than 500 non tarrif barriers in place according to the WTO more than any other country in the world but it still failed to protect their industries and the US had spiraling trade deficits for decades. This is because the US has a policy in place both at the government and the central bank that favours speculation and consumption over production and savings. And as long as that continues things in the US will only go from bad to worse. The only way for the Americans to get rid of the deficits is to make structural changes to the US economy. This is something that the Americans at the moment is either unable or unwilling to do. The tarrifs will only make things worse for US industries. The trade deficits are the symptom of the problems in the US economy not the cause.
 
Last edited:
now I read
U.S.-China trade dispute reveals three conflicts of views: Chinese ambassador
Xinhua| 2018-07-09 16:21:56
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Chinese Ambassador to Britain Liu Xiaoming said that the U.S.-China trade dispute poses a severe challenge to the world economic order and reflects three conflicts of views between the two countries.

Liu said in a signed article published on The Sunday Telegraph that the United States recently went back on its words after reaching a principled consensus with China.

"The dark clouds of 'trade war' are once again looming over the Americas, Europe, Asia and Africa, and posing a severe challenge to the world economic order and the multilateral trade regime," he said.

Liu said that deep down, the trade dispute is much more than just a problem of trade, and it reveals three conflicts of views between China and the United States in terms of the world, cooperation and development.

"With increased tariffs on steel and aluminium from the European Union, Canada and Japan, the U.S. wields its 'tariff baton' against its traditional allies," he said.

"That view on the world is known as 'America first,' and it means that anyone seen as having 'moved America's cheese,' be it an ally or not, is punished," he said.

By contrast, China sees its relations with the world as based on mutual respect, fairness, justice and win-win cooperation, and aims to safeguard world peace and promote common development, Liu said.

In terms of cooperation, he said that the United States has laid bare its belief in unilateralism, protectionism, "zero-sum games" and "beggar-thy-neighbor" approach, which have been widely questioned and opposed by the international community.

China, by contrast, follows its time-honored philosophy of "strength through unity and weakness in isolation," champions open, inter-connected, mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation, and strives to uphold World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, support the multilateral trade regime and build an open world economy, he said.

"To maintain its competitive edge in a globalized world where the future and interests of all countries are intertwined, the U.S. should build on its own strengths and cooperate with other countries," he said.

"Slowing others down or depriving others of the right to a better life is an unjust cause that will gain little support and may in the end backfire," he added.

Liu urged the United States to recognize the overarching trend, say goodbye to its old mindset and work with other countries to blaze a new trail of win-win cooperation so as to achieve development and prosperity.

"Under the current situation, it is all the more important that China, the UK and the rest of the world unite against unilateralism and protectionism, uphold the world economic order and the multilateral trade regime, safeguard the common interests of all mankind, and work for prosperity and stability of the world economy," he said.
for non-native speakers:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

Franklin

Captain
Another interesting article on the US China trade war

America’s tech giants vie with China’s in third countries

The most titanic commercial battle in the world

IT IS the world’s most titanic commercial fight. Facing off are the towering giants of American and Chinese tech, led by the FAANGs (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google’s parent, Alphabet) on one side and the BATs (Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent) on the other. These are some of the planet’s biggest firms, with a combined stockmarket capitalisation of more than $4trn. At play are some of its most promising markets. Why, then, has the battle largely escaped attention?

One reason is where it is taking place. The titans have avoided each other in their home markets, and rising trade tensions make it ever less likely that a clash will happen there (see article). Except for Amazon and Apple, the FAANGs are already all but banned in China. America, meanwhile, is putting up barriers to Chinese firms. This week the Trump administration declared China Mobile, the world’s largest carrier, a potential threat to national security. Ant Financial, an affiliate of Alibaba, was stopped from buying an American payments firm earlier this year. Tighter investment restrictions are on the way. So the cream of America and China are taking each other on directly only in third countries, such as Brazil, India and Indonesia (see article).

Another reason for the battle’s low profile is that it is not being fought in the open. The American firms have, broadly, transplanted their services to other markets; Amazon has pledged over $5bn to replicate its offerings in India, for example. But the Chinese giants are taking a different tack, buying stakes in local firms and weaving them together into complex tapestries of services. The ecosystem of Tencent and Alibaba, with over 1,000 stakes in foreign firms, includes dozens in emerging markets. Along with Ant, they have backed 43% of all Asian unicorns, startups worth more than $1bn. Chinese tech firms pumped $5bn into Indian startups in 2017, a fivefold increase on the year before. America’s tech giants are wearing uniform abroad; China’s melt into the background.

The battle for emerging markets warrants closer attention — and not just because it has been below the radar. It has implications for the world’s tech giants. Over half of Google’s revenues come from outside America; eight of Facebook’s ten biggest territories by user numbers are emerging markets. Alibaba wants to raise the value of sales on its platform that are made abroad to 50% by 2025, implying stratospheric growth in places like India. Around half of the world’s population is online; that leaves an awful lot of new eyeballs to monetise.

In addition, a proper east-west tech rivalry promises to bring big economic benefits. At home, the tech giants prompt worries about their dominance. Abroad, they are scrapping for consumers and companies. Ant and Tencent, for instance, are introducing Germans to the blessings of Alipay and WeChat Pay, their mobile-payment systems. Amazon has helped bring big warehouses and other e-commerce infrastructure to India. Over time, many digital markets tend to become more concentrated, as size begets size and winners take most of the spoils. For now, in third countries, competition rages.

The last reason to watch this unfolding battle is geopolitical. America and China are vying for digital supremacy. The fight between their tech champions in other markets will inevitably have political overtones. Chinese technology is sold by firms that will work with the authorities. That may tip the scales in their favour in countries with less democratic regimes. Online data provide the fuel for artificial intelligence; deciding if they flow into Chinese computing clouds or American ones could have consequences for how dependent countries become on one superpower. The battle between the FAANGs and the BATs is a commercial one. But its outcome could put third countries in one camp or the other, increasing the risk that the world eventually splits into two techno-blocs.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

Ultra

Junior Member
On the one hand, you are ultra nationalistic (as your name suggests) thinking China should be the King of the world. On the other hand you massively under estimate China's true strength.

You sounds like a red guard (radical) from the 1960s. Why don't you just build a wall around yourself and isolate yourself from whoever outside, be it American or other human beings? China is fighting for interest, but you seems prefer committing suicide when fighting others.

On the one hand, you are ultra nationalistic (as your name suggests) thinking China should be the King of the world. On the other hand you massively under estimate China's true strength.


First of all, his predictions counter each other within a 24 hour period. First he said that the world's hatred for Trump will lead to a Sino-centric global trade order, and then he said that it'll lead to military threats, causing China to fold. So h';s not even agreeing with himself.

Secondly, the moment Trump was elected, he predicted a shooting war over North Korea. Whether or not you think that's outlandish is a different issue; I thought it was and in fact, it hasn't happened.

Thirdly, the belief that the current situation of a rising power challenging the established order always leading to a hot war is based on the Thucydides Trap theory, in which the hegemon must go to war with the rising power to destroy it before the hegemon himself becomes displaced and at the mercy of the challenger nation. But Thucydides made this theory in ancient Greece, a time when nuclear weapons and the concept of MAD did not exist. With nuclear weapons and MAD, the only way for a hegemon to remain in power is to develop itself faster than its challenger can, and if that is not the case, it can only watch as it is outgrown because military action to stop this will bring its own destruction as well.


BAHAHAHAHAHA LOL!!

You guys are HOPELESS!

All you guys do are just personal attack me which has absolutely no effect on me. It only makes me laugh at how idiotic you guys are.

You guys are just a bunch of ostrichs with heads in the sand not willing to come up and see the real picture.


There is no conflict in my argument. Only your poor understanding of logic.
First, if Trump continues his attacks on his own western allies and leaders (he even making it personal), it is only logical these leaders will start fall into China's orbit to counter an aggressive "America First" policy on trade, which eventually lead to a Sino-centric global trade order.
Now, this is an optimistic scenerio - if Trump doesn't start a shooting war with China and allows it to eventuate to that.


But Trump is a narcissistic egomaniac. And he is willing to go at ANY LENGTH to win. And Americans LOVE THAT. It is already demonstrated Americans willing to go blindly into any silly shooting war without thinking because you cannot question your leader when they question YOUR PATRIOTISM.

And with America having at least a sizable lead in TECH and PURE MILITARY POWER, it isn't too far fetch that Trump will wage a war with China to either distract from his scandals at home, or his economic failing (when it starts failing). This is the WORST CASE SCENERIO.
There is no conflict of the 2 arguments. One is best case scenerio, one is worst case scenerio. This only shows your poor understanding of english or logic.

Now, I did say Trump will push that Taiwan button didn't I?
So now they are sailing destroyers over TAIWAN STRAIT. Destroyers that has cruise missiles that can strike Beijing at a moment's notice for a decapitation strike. This is basically Trump's overt warning to Beijing.

They are also stationing US MARINES in Taiwan now too. And there are talks of CVBG doing port calls to Taiwan, and probably making regular visits in the future.
And what's China gonna do when US start BASING in Taiwan AGAIN? (There were US airbases in Taiwan well into 70s)
With US military bases in place, Taiwanese president just might have the backing to declare Taiwanese independence. What's China gonna do then?


Like I said, the destroyers over Taiwan strait is only the beginning move, and Chinese leadership get the message. There are more and more severe "trump cards" Trump can play and Xi and his leadership team KNOWS they cannot allow it eventuate to that degree.
So there is a high chance he will fold. Because he cannot allow Taiwan to be independent, even if he has to suffer short term economic blackmail by Trump.

But the sad thing is you see, TRUMP WANTS EVERYTHING. Just like in the NK deal - he wants NK to completely denuclearized while not even giving any concession.
Once Xi submitted to Trump's economic blackmail, Trump will still do what he sets out to do, he will STILL antagonize China, probably put a few bases in Taiwan, and support Taiwan declaration of independence. That's Trump.
 
Last edited:

nugroho

Junior Member
Another interesting article on the US China trade war



Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
I have been wondering why the world call Alibaba and Tencent Chinese company.
Alibaba biggest shareholder are Softbank (29,2 % ), Yahoo=altaba ( 15 % ), Ma yun only 6,68%,
In turn Alibaba own weibo (67% held by alibaba ).
Softbank is Japan company ( biggest share holder is Japanese ), So Alibaba really is Japan and US company.

Tencent really is South African company ( naspers held 31,2 %, the biggest shareholder), Ma hua teng only 8,62 %.

Yes they operate in mainland but they aren't company own biggest by chinese ( Chinese company ).
Can anyone tell me why ?
 
I have been wondering why the world call Alibaba ... Chinese company.
...
Can anyone tell me why ?
because of the location of
Alibaba Group Corporate Campus
?
which is
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Alibaba (China) Co., Ltd:
969 West Wen Yi Road
Yu Hang District
Hangzhou 311121
China
Tel: (+86) 571-8502-2088
Fax: (+86) 571-8526-9066
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top