In 2019, Turkey is scheduled to receive two major new pieces of military equipment: the U.S.-made
stealthy fifth-generation fighter and the Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air missile system.
Deployment of both systems in the same country has already made U.S. and NATO officials so concerned about security that the Pentagon and the
are trying to halt S-400 deliveries to Ankara. However, U.S. lawmakers are divided over exactly how they should respond.
One bipartisan group of senators is moving to block the transfer of
F-35s to Turkey, even as Lockheed prepares to deliver the first Turkish aircraft to Luke AFB, Arizona. And a contingent of House lawmakers is considering a provision in a fiscal 2019 defense policy bill that would stop short of restricting F-35 deliveries but could impede shipments of other U.S. exports there.
The back-and-forth on Capitol Hill adds another layer of complexity to the controversial geopolitical situation that the Pentagon and State Department have been grappling with. But it remains to be seen whether the U.S. will ultimately take any concrete steps to prevent the sale.
The U.S. has $9.7 billion in active Foreign Military Sales (FMS) with Turkey, the last of which was a $70 million deal for laser-guided Joint Direct Attack Munitions (
), which Congress was informed of in 2015. Between 2013 and 2017, the U.S. made another $1.7 billion in direct commercial sales there. Turkey is also an original production partner making key components for the F-35, “a testament to the strength of our defense trade partnership and continued potential for future growth,” a State Department official notes.
The U.S. has long tried to sell Turkey air and missile defense systems such as
’s Patriot. But Ankara ultimately opted for the Almaz Central Design Bureau’s S-400 in a $2.5 billion deal. The systems were originally scheduled for delivery in 2020, but that date has since been accelerated.
“In pursuing a U.S. air and missile defense solution, Turkey would benefit from top-of-the-line technology, as well as NATO interoperability,” the official says. “In contrast, an S-400 acquisition could potentially trigger actions under the Countering Americas Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (Caatsa) and have serious ramifications for U.S.’ ability to do business with Turkey across the defense trade spectrum.”
But as the date for deliveries nears, lawmakers may take additional action.
Standalone legislation proposed by Sens. James Lankford (R-Okla.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) would prohibit the use of U.S. government funds to transfer F-35 aircraft, intellectual property or technical data related to maintenance support to Turkey, according to the text of the bill.
Because the sale is not by the U.S. government but by the international F-35 consortium, Congress does not have the legal authority to block it. Ankara is a development partner on the program and plans to purchase 100 F-35As in total, the first of which will soon be delivered to Luke AFB.
Given the limitations, lawmakers appear to have realized the best approach to preventing Ankara from receiving the Joint Strike Fighter is to eliminate funds for the planned transfer of the jets from Luke to Turkey in 2019.
Blocking the transfer of intellectual property and technical data would also mean Ankara could not perform maintenance on U.S. engines or service their own aircraft. Turkey has been chosen to be the hub of
engine depot overhaul for all the European operators. Engine production and maintenance would take place at the First Air Supply and Maintenance Military Center in Eskisehir, which already services
engines, among others.
Turkish industry stands to make $12 billion through F-35 work, Lockheed estimates.
Under the senators’ bill, President Donald Trump could waive the limitation, but the terms are stringent. Trump must certify to Congress that Turkey is not taking steps to degrade NATO interoperability; exposing NATO assets to hostile actors; degrading the general security of NATO member countries; seeking to import or purchase defense articles from a foreign country under U.S. sanctions; or unlawfully detaining U.S. citizens.
Officials are likely concerned that if Turkey operates both the S-400 and the F-35, the fighter’s security could be compromised. And NATO allies, including the U.S., see the S-400 as a security issue for NATO’s wider missile defense network.
Czech Army Gen. Petr Pavel, chairman of the NATO Military Committee, says the S-400 is not just a sophisticated target-acquisition radar. Even more important is that it is a database, he says, and Russian experts who come to install the system in Turkey could populate the database with NATO data. “There is a big challenge,” Pavel cautions.
The House provision stops far short of prohibiting the sale of F-35s, because such a restriction would hurt the U.S. and its allies more than it would affect Turkey, according to a House Republican aide.
Rather, the legislation seeks a report on the impact that “increasing strains” between the U.S. and Turkey, “caused by provocative actions taken by the Turkish government over the past year, will have on all U.S. military and diplomatic activities currently conducted in Turkey, including joint operation of the F-35 and other military platforms.” Other FMS sales, such as JDAM deliveries, could also be delayed.
Despite recent congressional moves, experts say it is unlikely the U.S. will take punitive action against Turkey over the S-400 purchase.
Kate Kizer, policy director of The Center for International Policy’s Win Without War program, says the U.S. government’s “paranoia” about losing market share to China and Russia is “a little bit overblown.
“The paradox of the U.S. being the largest arms exporter, I think, is that there is a paranoia, particularly in Congress, about losing the market share in some way. If we don’t sell these weapons to [Turkey] then China and Russia are going to move in and do it and then we will lose our ally,” she says. “The whole baby gets thrown out with the bathwater.”
Pieter Wezeman, senior researcher with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, says Russia has not been successful in marketing its technology to the rest of the world. There is a big difference, he says, between the one or two S-400s Turkey will receive from Russia and the more-than-100 F-35 buy.
“They haven’t really shown that they are very good in transferring technology and helping other states to build up their arms industry,” says Wezeman. “I really doubt if we are going to see a very big change in the arms transfer relationship between the U.S. and Turkey.”
