China's strategy in Korean peninsula

Phead128

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Guys, the Western media only has superficial reporting on the dynamics of East Asian geopolitics.

Here is the Machinations that I've noticed recently.

MOON JAE-IN seeks to isolate China's influence by
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with 3 leaders only.

XI JINPING seeks to assert China's influence (and isolate Japan) by
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with 4 leaders only but is also open to Six-Party talks format.

SHINZO ABE seeks to assert Japan's influence by:
VLADIMIR PUTIN says
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, but will highly likely occur given Moscow's previous invite to Kim to attend WW2 victory parade (cancelled last moment), and Russia may try to upstage Trump by meeting Kim before Trump-Kim summit in May (but after Moon-Kim summit in April), so Trump will be 4th in line to meet Dear Leader (instead of 2nd behind Moon).

KIM JONG UN told Xi Jinping he wanted to
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. which illustrates the power of diffusion and diversity. Perhaps Kim thinks Xi will keep Trump from negotiating in bad faith.

​
Phead128's opinion of all this: My gut instinct tells me Trump-Kim summit will be a purely photo-ops summit, or it will likely not happen at all. If it does happen, Kim will likely recruit Xi to ensure Trump negotiates in good faith, and Moon will want to partake so SK interests isn't ignored (like it's always is). Trump may concede to expand to Six-party format because his affinity for Putin and to placate his Japanese dog Shinzo Abe, which is frantic that Japan being totally ignored and isolated. Also for Trump, the "blame-man", if he diversifies to Six-party format, he has everyone to blame except himself if the talks truly go nowhere.

What yall's opinion?

Yours truly,
Hong Kong comrade Phead128
 
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taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Regarding #1511 @Phead128

My thought is that, influence is always based on strength, every boxer in the ring is of the same weight class, nobody can play by wit (not on strategic level).

So, regardless the outwardly maneuver to exclude or isolate, the foundation is "who was the determining power of the Korean war that created the current stalemate?". It is (are) that who to be sitting in the center of any meaningful negotiation, regardless the media exposure or lack of it.

We all know who those were, the US and China. Japan was never part of the Korean matter after 1945. Russia was half of it (being half because not contributing sizable forcing, China and US did, nor financed the effort, China paid the weapons). South Korean army was always under the US command. North Korean troops were almost totally annihilated at the boarder of Yalu river. On the surface it is Kim taking the center stage together with Trump, but not in the back stage.

4 party talks is a natural choice because it involves the real concerned parties (the Koreans' soil, the two powers who set the 38 line) and it was the initial setup (later extended to 6). The 6 party talk was always a 4+2.

Similar in the way in Syria, Russia is the lead, China just lend the support. Or more apparently, just look at who is the P5 in UNSC, the guys who won with blood.

Now to your thoughts:
  1. Trump-Kim summit will be a purely photo-ops summit. Could be so. But it is the start of everything afterwards. So it is no less significant.
  2. If it does happen, Kim will likely recruit Xi to ensure Trump negotiates in good faith. Xi will surely be at the table of a 4/6 party talk. But not at the first step, not a trilateral talk in the beginning, what he need to say to Kim, he has said during Kim's visit in Beijing.
  3. SK interests isn't ignored. That's almost certain, even though SK was under US command during the war, the matter now is about SK's life, ignoring that (same as NK's interest) will not make any deal.
  4. As for Japan. Abe is thinking too much. I don't think it is related. It is Korean's soil and people, American and Chinese soldiers' blood on that soil.
 
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taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
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April 8th, Joint declaration 2018-36 by Ministry of Commerce, Industrial & Information, State Nuclear Agency, Custom Agency, National Defense Industrial Bureau.
List of prohibited exports to DPRK in accordance with UNSC resolution 2375

It is serious business. NK's safety must be guaranteed, so is the nuclear non-proliferation regime.
 
Phead128

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
China could propose to drop it's no-first use (NFU) doctrine and extend a Chinese nuclear umbrella over North Korea to assure the regime of it's territorial integrity and political independence.

But China really probably doesn't care, because China can now effectively nuke US by proxy, bypassing the NFU, by outsourcing nuke use to a third-party ally, while retaining plausible deniability. The Americans are outclassed in this game of geopolitics.

Given NK's overwhelming dependence on computer hardware from Chinese blackmarket, I am confident that Chinese military already has secret backdoors to the entirety of NK's nuclear infrastructure, so China can disable the PALS system on NK nukes easily given it's dependence on Chinese internet infrastructure for external hacking. Chinese MSS already has infiltrated the entirety of NK nuclear infrastructure with Chaoxian-zuk spies, China already knows where every single centrifuge is located with it's advanced spying network of ethnic Chinese-Koreans loyal spies.
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
now I read
DPRK pledges to consolidate friendship with China
Xinhua| 2018-04-15 18:48:26
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The top leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), Kim Jong Un, pledged on Saturday to jointly write a new chapter of the country's friendship with China during a meeting with a senior Chinese official in Pyongyang.

Kim, chairman of the Workers's Party of Korea (WPK) and chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the DPRK, met with Song Tao, head of the International Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee at the headquarters of the WPK Central Committee on Saturday.

During the meeting, Kim extended his greetings to General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee Xi Jinping and welcomed the Chinese art troupe headed by Song that will attend the "Spring of April" International Friendship Art Festival held in Pyongyang.

Kim said that not long ago, he made a historic visit to China, during which he had long-time and meaningful talks and exchanges with Xi.

The two leaders reached important consensus and the meeting achieved fruitful results, he said.

At the moment when the DPRK-China friendly relations are moving towards a new and higher stage, General Secretary Xi sent a high-level and large-scale troupe to the DPRK, showing that Xi highly values the implementation of the consensus and revealing his friendly feelings of the DPRK people, he said.

Kim said he hopes that the two countries will take this opportunity to consolidate the basis of friendship between the two peoples and jointly write a new chapter of the DPRK-China friendship.

For his part, Song conveyed Xi's greetings and wishes to Kim.

Song said that the two leaders held a historic meeting in Beijing and reached important consensus, which opened a new chapter of the China-DPRK relations.

He said that the visit of the Chinese art troupe to the DPRK aims to implement the consensus, enrich the China-DPRK friendship, promote exchanges and cooperation between the two parties and enhance cultural and artistic exchanges between the two countries.

He said that the Chinese art troupe felt that Chairman Kim, the WPK and the DPRK people attach great importance to China-DPRK relations, and also felt their friendly feelings towards General Secretary Xi, the CPC and the Chinese people from the moment the delegation arrived in Pyongyang.

The two sides also exchanged views on strengthening exchanges and cooperation between the two parties and two countries, as well as international and regional issues of common concerns.

Kim said that during his visit to China, he witnessed the remarkable achievement made by China and he was happy for the brotherly Chinese people.

Kim said he hopes that he can learn from the experiences of the CPC and strengthen exchanges and cooperation in various fields in an all-round way between the two parties and two countries.

Song said it is an unswerving policy of the CPC and the Chinese government to preserve, consolidate and develop relations with the DPRK.

China is willing to work with the DPRK to implement the important consensus reached between the top leaders of the two parties and jointly contribute to promoting the development of bilateral relations in the new era, improving the welfare of the two peoples and safeguarding peace on the Korean Peninsula, Song said.

Kim and his wife Ri Sol Ju held a grand reception for the Chinese art troupe on Saturday night with participation of senior DPRK officials.
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Phead128

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
CLASSIC DECEPTION by Mainstream Media.

North Korea Removes Major Obstacle to U.S. Negotiations, South Says

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Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, has removed a key obstacle to negotiations with Washington by no longer demanding that American troops be removed from South Korea as a condition for denuclearizing his country, the South’s president, Moon Jae-in, said Thursday.......

On Thursday, Mr. Moon said North Korea no longer included that demand in the list of things it wanted in return for giving up its nuclear weapons. That has encouraged the United States to proceed with plans to hold its first-ever summit meeting with North Korea, he said.
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NO, that's not what SK President said. Look exactly what he said, exact quotation:

“The North Koreans did not present any conditions that the United States could not accept, such as the withdrawal of American troops in South Korea,” Mr. Moon told newspaper publishers in Seoul on Thursday ahead of his planned April 27 summit meeting with Mr. Kim.

“They only talk about an end to hostilities against their country and about getting security guarantees,” he said. “It’s safe to say that the plans for dialogue between the North and the United States could proceed because that has been made clear.”
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CLEARLY, this is a logical fallacy: "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence". NK did not affirmatively or explicitly bring up withdrawal of troops, but absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

NK only talks about "end to hostilities against their country" which is as VAGUE and GENERAL and OPEN-ENDED as it can be. NK is gaining strategic space by being "open-ended" interpretation, which "hostilities" can include US forward basing of troops on NK border.

Just becauase NK did not EXPLICITLY bring up withdrawal of troops doesn't mean that troop removal is not included inside "End to hostilities against their country".

South Korea has a vested interest to see Trump summit go through, but short of an explicit affirmation by NK that they are dropping this condition (instead as merely not mentioning it, which is not the same as dropping this condition), we can take SK's words as grain of salt, since SK is biased to see this summit go thru.

This is excellent proof you can't rely on Heads of State (with biases, ulterior motives) and Mainstream Media (editorializing for ulterior motives) to provide you news. You have to go straight to the source and be skeptical of the exact quotation.

Just a quick common sense check: Would NK just give up nukes for paper promise to not attack it and some economic relief? NO, it would want to see a fundamental structural shift in US-SK alliance in exchange for giving up nukes. How can NK leader convince their Generals and populace that NK gained some massive concession from US? Just for some aid relief and paper promise? No! Only removal of troops can satisfy NK demand, and NK has never explicitly dropped it.
 
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B.I.B.

Captain
I reckon, should the problems of the two Koreas be successfully sorted out, then ,Kim, Moon and Trump should like Arafat Peres and Rabin, be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize with Trump also being made Times 'Man of the Year'
 
AssassinsMace

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
B.I.B. said:
why?
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Because like before North Korea said they would stop when negotiating with the Clinton Administration and then the Bush Administration charged they were breaking the deal. Trump doesn't want to look like a fool especially when he likes to point to previous administrations' failures. The fact is the ultimate goal of the US is regime change in North Korea. Nothing short of that will satisfy the US even after Trump leaves office.

Just look at Obama at the UN meeting at Copenhagen during his first year in office. Obama knew no agreement at this summit was ever going to get passed Congress thus Obama would get blamed internationally for its failure because that's what happened to Bush at Kyoto. So what did Obama do to avoid that? He proposed that all the sacrifices for the environment are the developing world's responsibility while the developed world didn't have to do anything. That guaranteed a country like China would protest and reject and Obama could then blame China for failing the environment and the world so it would take the onus off of him and the US who would've been eventually caused the failure at Copenhagen. All that bull just so Obama doesn't look bad.

Saying that North Korea is not linking US troop withdrawal to North Korea giving up its nukes when that's not the case is setting up an out for Trump to save face if talks fail.
 
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