I have no doubt that China is producing Pu and enriched Uranium, the question is how much? Do you know how much?
Interesting question, and hard to tell.
The thermal capacity vs yield of PU-239 can be calculated easy, 3 GW thermal capacity can makes 1000-1500 kg of pu-239 in a dedicated weapon material making reactor.
It should be enought for 250-500 warhead/year.
The Guangyuan site has no visible cooling tower, and only a small river.
so, realisticly I think it can evacuate only hundred or less mw thermal energy,unless it using air cooling, but the earlier Jiuquan using water cooling ,so I don't think that they moved to less safe directin on the later design.
so, based on thatI think it can make no more than 10-30 warhead/year. On it own it can means 100-300 more warhead in the past decade
Problems to make precise evaluation:
-no visible water supply points of the complex from the nearest river.
-unknown ammount of available cooling water from the reiver.
-no available thermal image to see the capacity of the complex , and the past of heat evacuation
Of course China made a lot of power plants in the past decade, so they can build new reactor facilities as well in same of those coplexes, and (theroeticaly) hide / cover them with the thermal signature of a conventional plant.
The open litarature show only this much data about the chinese weapon porgram, and there is no available unclassified document from the last decade.
If anyone have access to satelite thermal images for the two facility then it should be easy to calculate the capacity of them.
