Chinese Economics Thread

plawolf said:

To those lamenting the closing door of the cheap labour based economic development model, fear not, there is already a next generation economic development and uplift model and vehicle operational, and that is China's One Belt One Road.

Pakistan will be the first to benefit, with massive capital and technological investment from China for mutual sustained economic integration and development.

With Chinese capital and technology, Pakistan should be able to achieve the critical mass needed for automated manufacturing. Indeed, it would make a lot of sense for China to develop Pakistan into a high tech manufacturing and logistics hub to help drive future phases on OBOR development.

However, China would do well not to repeat the grave strategic mistakes of the west and offshore its manufacturing economy. Developing Pakistan and others should always act as supplements to China's own manufacturing, never replacements. That will also help to lock those countries and economies into the broader Chinese economic system to prevent them from turning into direct competitors or getting pulled into the orbit of Chinese rivals, as Ukrain and other former Soviet block nations have been turned against Russia for example.

The move to a services based economy should be based on the strong foundations of primary agriculture and secondary manufacturing, not at the expense of the former two.

As China grows richer and greyer, the automation and robotics development trends should ensure Chinese manufacturing output does not suffer from a natural decline in workers. It is in agriculture where it will have to make an important choice on how best to proceed.

China's complex and piecemeal farmland geography makes American style mechanised farming unsuitable, so either China will need to invest significantly to develop and mass produce far more complex and capable agricultural robots; or it can take the easy path of importing low skilled agricultural and other workers from abroad, as the west has done.

Both approaches carry significant risks and challenges, and China may well take a hybrid approach of using short term foreign labour to sustain agriculture while developing replacement farming robots and/or developing suitable areas coming into OBOR into bread baskets with American style mass scale mechanised farming with existing technology.

Pakistan actually has the potential to meet all of those needs in the short to medium run.

China can simultaneously develop part of Pakistan into highly automated manufacturing centres specialising in the tools and machinery OBOR will need; while at the same time investing to mechanise farming.

Massive investments in education will help create the engineers, scientists and technicians needed to take over from the first generation of Chinese who will build, set-up and run all these new infrastructure and plants initially.

For those Pakistanis not wishing to study to university level and beyond to take up these new high tech jobs, primary and secondary Chinese languages education classes could give them the language skills to go to China and help full the projected medium term labour shortages before robotics fully takes root.

The remittances they send home would help lift millions out of poverty, and provide much of the private capital for future development to replace Chinese state capital, as similar things had done for Chinese migrant workers and western regions. And like Chinese migrant workers, these foreign migrant workers are not expected to stay and put down roots, but rather to make their modest fortunes and then return home to help develop those impoverished regions.

That will not only drive sustainable economic growth and fairer distribution of the fruits of economic developed (as opposed to the counter London model, where one city or region becomes over-developed and sucks in a disproportionate share of the capital and talent from the nation and economy to the detriment of everywhere else and becomes too crowded and inefficient itself in turn); it should also help China avoid most of the racial and social divisions and simmering tensions experienced in the US and large parts of Europe from large ethnic minority 'ghettos'.

If China can make Pakistan a stand out success, it will not only create a powerful ally that can counter India on its own, but also serve as a western-media-propaganda-war-proof case study to have the countries in the region and beyond come knocking down China's door to be part of OBOR and become part of the new robotics driven world economy without needing the vast captical and technology needed to achieve such a status itself.

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Hendrik_2000 said:

But vegetable greenhouse is now the rage in China and they don't use soil instead they use hydroponic to grow vegetable and fruits Japan countryside has successfully converted to greenhouse farming. chinese farming is much more efficient these days due to conversion of family plot into industrial scale farming with modern management,capital and technology. It is revolution that few people know or care

The advantages is obvious they grow faster , consistently good quality. and can be automated
You can provide ideal growing condition by controlling , the temperature, humidity, light and air circulation. Free from polluted air and water some even grow it organically
They even grow in arid Xinjiang. Or in isolated island in SCS. The only problem is it require large amount of energy
Xinjiang Kuche:
Vegetable greenhouses in China leading farmers to riches
In the small town of Yaha, in Kuche County of Xinjiang Province, villagers grow cucumbers in greenhouses, under the guidance Mayinuer, the town agricultural technology station technician.

With help from the town government, the village started greenhouse vegetable cultivation back in early 2004. Each year the government provided free technical guidance. And through the success of this pilot, the project has now grown and planted nearly 250 acres of vegetables, totalling to 70 greenhouses, with varieties such as cowpeas, tomatoes, cucumbers, strawberries, watermelons, green vegetables and fruits. Each shed earns an income of around 30,000 yuan and has made the lives of village farmers better

Amidu Kebier, one of the farmers, said that with the help of the government, his 4 greenhouses last year earn him 120,000 yuan. He cultivates watermelons, cucumber, beans and tomatoes. Each of his greenhouses are around 80 meters long and 10 meters wide.

Oritech greenhouse supplier

Chinese green house booming

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Some images from Chinese greenhouse

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They even grow peach and nectarine in greenhouse

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Industrial scale Greenhouse

Chinese Israel greenhouse

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Hendrik_2000 said:

But vegetable greenhouse is now the rage in China and they don't use soil instead they use hydroponic to grow vegetable and fruits Japan countryside has successfully converted to greenhouse farming. chinese farming is much more efficient these days due to conversion of family plot into industrial scale farming with modern management,capital and technology. It is revolution that few people know or care

The advantages is obvious they grow faster , consistently good quality. and can be automated
You can provide ideal growing condition by controlling , the temperature, humidity, light and air circulation. Free from polluted air and water some even grow it organically
They even grow in arid Xinjiang. Or in isolated island in SCS. The only problem is it require large amount of energy
Xinjiang Kuche:
Vegetable greenhouses in China leading farmers to riches
In the small town of Yaha, in Kuche County of Xinjiang Province, villagers grow cucumbers in greenhouses, under the guidance Mayinuer, the town agricultural technology station technician.

With help from the town government, the village started greenhouse vegetable cultivation back in early 2004. Each year the government provided free technical guidance. And through the success of this pilot, the project has now grown and planted nearly 250 acres of vegetables, totalling to 70 greenhouses, with varieties such as cowpeas, tomatoes, cucumbers, strawberries, watermelons, green vegetables and fruits. Each shed earns an income of around 30,000 yuan and has made the lives of village farmers better

Amidu Kebier, one of the farmers, said that with the help of the government, his 4 greenhouses last year earn him 120,000 yuan. He cultivates watermelons, cucumber, beans and tomatoes. Each of his greenhouses are around 80 meters long and 10 meters wide.

Oritech greenhouse supplier

Chinese green house booming

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Some images from Chinese greenhouse

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They even grow peach and nectarine in greenhouse

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Industrial scale Greenhouse

Chinese Israel greenhouse

Click to expand...

B.I.B. said:

Hydroponics has been around for decades. Nevertheless, it's still impressive what China is trying to do.

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A Chinese research ship has tested a possible sea lane through northwestern Arctic, which can cut the trip from Shanghai to New York by 20 percent, or 2,000 nautical miles.

The trip, carried out by crew members on the

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, was the first time for a Chinese ship to drift through the northwestern Arctic route.

"The normal route for a ship to travel between Shanghai and New York goes through the Panama Canal, which is about 10,500 nautical miles in length," Xu Ren, leading scientist of the Xuelong ship mission, told CCTV reporter.

"But the new route is only 8,500 nautical miles, cutting the travel time by a week," he added.

For cargo ships, going through the new route will save not only time, but also cost.

Xuelong was on a science expedition mission in the Arctic, which has been going on for about 50 days.

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Details about their finding may only be available after the Xuelong returns to China, which is expected to happen in October.

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Route of Xuelong's Arctic expedition /CGTN Photo‍

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Why China Is Building A New City Out In The Desert Of Oman

Chinese investors pose for a picture in the land where an industrial city, including an oil refinery, is due to be built following an economic agreement, in the port town of Duqm. (MOHAMMED MAHJOUB/AFP/Getty Images)

Nobody is going to confuse the dusty fishing village of Duqm for Dubai.

But Oman intends to change this by building an entirely new, $10.7 billion transit-oriented industrial city on the desertified coast of the Arabian Sea, 550 kilometers south of Muscat.

More accurately,China intends to change this by building an entirely new $10.7 billion transit-oriented industrial city …

A year ago, Oman signed a deal and opened the doors for a Chinese consortium to move in and do what they seemingly like to do best:

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. After constructing

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and completely re-developing dozens more in their own country, Chinese firms are now moving out along the tendrils of the Belt and Road to construct new cities across Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Duqm is among the most ambitious of such projects.

China's new city in the Oman desert has been pragmatically dubbed the Sino-Oman Industrial City, and the ambition is to turn a remote and underutilized Middle East seaport into a vital nerve center of global trade and manufacturing. The 11-square-kilometer endeavor, which sits within the giant Duqm Special Economic Zone (SEZAD), is expected to have not only a vibrant port but an array of other “mega-ventures,” which include an oil refinery, a multi-billion dollar methanol plant, a giant solar energy equipment manufacturing operation, an automobile assembly factory, an oil and gas equipment production site, and a $100+ million building material distribution enterprise.


In addition to being a cluster of industrial operations, the Sino-Oman Industrial City will also have a more human element as well, providing homes for 25,000 people, complete with schools, medical facilities, office complexes, and entertainment centers — which includes a $200 million 5-star tourism zone.

The Chinese consortium has promised to develop 30% of the project area in just five years, with financing and construction firms

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.

Google Maps

Location of Dumq, Oman.


It is also probably no coincidence that 77.1% (2015) of Oman’s crude oil and condensates exports

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.

Chinese investors listening to an explanation as they check the model of the dry dock which is to be built following an economic agreement in the Omani port city of Duqm. (MOHAMMED MAHJOUB/AFP/Getty Images)

The Sino-Oman Industrial City is just one of a network of new cities that Chinese firms are currently busy at work constructing along the land and sea routes of the Belt and Road — another entry into a portfolio that now includes

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and

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in Sri Lanka, Forest City and Robotic Future City in Malaysia, a

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, the $10 billion

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in Myanmar, along with large-scale new developments in western Chinese cities like

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, Urumqi,

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, and Xi’an.

Via its Belt and Road Initiative, China has become a prime partner of countries that are going through three kinds of economic transitions:

Oman joins countries like Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan right in the midst of the third type of transition.

Currently, Oman’s economy is firmly entrenched in a cycle of hydro-carbon dependency. In Oman, oil and gas accounts for nearly

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,

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, and

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.

This reliance on oil and gas has been posited as

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, and the country has been on an all out mission to develop other sectors of its economy, aiming to cut its share of hydro-carbon derived GDP

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. To these ends, the country has earmarked roughly $106 billion to invest in industries like transportation, tourism, and real estate, with projects to create a new railway network, new airports, enhanced seaports, new cities — a la Duqm —

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. The research firm BMI forecasted that the Sino-Oman Industrial City will be a major factor in the rise of Oman’s construction sector, which is predicted to

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.

For the record, Oman didn’t go running straight to China with their economic woes, begging the emerging superpower to the east to step in and fund their diversification program. No, as was the case with Sri Lanka, Oman initially tried to secure additional funding for its big development projects from other countries, like Iran, but it was to no avail. China was the only taker, and probably the only country in the world with the capital, political will, and motive for carrying out such long-term, costly developmental endeavors.

Omani Yahya bin Said bin Abdullah Al-Jabri, Minister of the Special Economic Zone Authority at A'Duqum (C-R) and Chinese Ali Shah, Chairperson of Oman Wanfang L.L.C shake hands after signing an economical agreement on May 23, 2016 in Muscat. (MOHAMMED MAHJOUB/AFP/Getty Images)

Under the framework of the Belt and Road, China is going around salving the world’s economic deficiencies with bags of money and bulldozers in

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:

These new port holdings also further enmeshes China into the political and economic fabric of the world. While seemingly irrational, inflated amounts of money are being passed over the table today, what China is receiving are strong footholds in the international arena that they will be able to stand upon for decades, creating a new geo-economic paradigm in the process. While national leaders put on smily faces and talk about “win-win” partnerships, international infrastructure projects like China's maritime developments are drawing up the new front lines of the 21st century, where economic leverage is the weapon of choice.

Nobody is going to confuse the dusty fishing village of Duqm for Dubai. Yet.

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Bltizo said:

I've considered the CPEC and the overall BRI before as a part of the package that could remedy or at least mitigate the future effects of automation and technological advancement, however at this point I think it is still very early days regarding whether those initiatives will be successful in their direct aims and provide a sustainable way of improving those nation's economies.


I also question, whether even if the direct aims of CPEC and BRI are achieved, if that will be enough to offset the advancements of technology and automation, because we do not yet know just how large the scale of that future change may be.

And more fundamentally, I think is the issue that there is not enough money to go around. China's CPEC and BRI may be able to assist some nations along the pathway, but I'm not sure if the scale of investment by China and its new banks, or even the inclusion of some developed nation intiatives, would be able to stem the tide of automation and the consequences for those developing nations.


This isn't to say that the CPEC and BRI are not ambitious -- they definitely are, and they may prove to provide a significant positive effect for the nations along the way.
... but the problem is whether the consequences of automation and technological advancement may be much much bigger than what positives the CPEC and BRI can bring to developing countries.

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