India incursion and Chinese standoff at Dolam, Bhutan

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AndrewS

Brigadier
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I think the Chinese position is very clear. Indian military personnel have crossed into Chinese territory. Indian forces must unilaterally withdraw unconditionally. This leaves absolutely no room for negotation. India has had more than 70 days of opportunity to withdraw. There is exactly 1 possible course of action that India can take, and none other. This has been been made publicly known ad nausem, and China clearly will not back down. The best explanation for why China would continue to hold BRICS summit with India in attendance, assuming Modi were to attend, would be further to show to the rest of world that China desires peace and does not seek to start a war. Xi may even meet personally publicly with Modi for precisely that reason, though I am very skeptical of that occurring. It would be all about protecting China's image.

This leads us to the another part of the issue, which is what India and China want from this standoff. From the actions of India over the past several weeks, one can make the argument that they may have realized that they bit off a little bit more than they can chew, but they are not ready to spit it back out yet. India is looking for any possible way to wrestle its way out of this bind without losing face, for which Modi will suffer politically. First they proposed bilateral withdrawal, which China immediately rejected. Now they may be looking for mediation from a third party, which in my opinion, is a non starter since China will not have a third party dictate the sovereignty over its own territory. Finally, faced with an ultimatum, India may actually back down and unilaterally withdraw, but leave enough of ambiguity in the media to provide cover with any number of excuses.

Which begs the question of what are China's intentions at this point. The trajectory of China's stance started off with 'hardline' and has actually progressed into being even more aggressive. Not only is China simply asking India to unilaterally withdraw, but China is also publicly stating that India must pay a price for its 'strategic miscalculation.' The most immediately visible action would be instantaneous and very much publicized resumption of road construction. Later on, it will manifest with increased Chinese influence in the region, with diplomatic relations with Bhutan being the most likely outcome. Thus, China not only intends to return the present situation back to what China perceives to be the status quo (building a road on Chinese territory), but may seek to extract further political gains. China may even up the ante further along the LAC by increasing its patrols and placing further pressure on India. This is less likely because such action would inevitably lead to a skirmish at some point, and lead to to war.

Given the singular option being presented to it, India may find it hard to stomach such humiliation, which is all the more reason why this situation is so precarious.

Well, previously Bhutan was amenable to a border settlement where Doklam was exchanged for land in the East.

Part of the Indian calculation is that their intervention into Doklam makes such a border settlement more difficult for Bhutan to agree to.

The key thing to remember is that it is in Bhutan's long-term interest to have good diplomatic and economic relations with both India and China, so it can extract maximum benefit from them both. However, this is being blocked by India.

Bhutan currently remains dependent on India for military/security/economic affairs, which means both China and India are squeezing Bhutan's room to maneuver.
 
Well, previously Bhutan was amenable to a border settlement where Doklam was exchanged for land in the East.

Part of the Indian calculation is that their intervention into Doklam makes such a border settlement more difficult for Bhutan to agree to.

The key thing to remember is that it is in Bhutan's long-term interest to have good diplomatic and economic relations with both India and China, so it can extract maximum benefit from them both. However, this is being blocked by India.

Bhutan currently remains dependent on India for military/security/economic affairs, which means both China and India are squeezing Bhutan's room to maneuver.
so is Bhutan waiting for Chinese ten bil from
#19 AndrewS, Thursday at 9:39 AM
China woos Bhutan with $10 billion in standoff with India

Beijing seen driving wedge in New Delhi-Thimphu alliance
YUJI KURONUMA, Nikkei staff writer

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NEW DELHI -- Locked in a two-month border standoff with India and tiny Bhutan in the Himalayas, China is offering its little neighbor $10 billion in economic assistance to soften its stance.

Sources say that since the offer, Bhutan has toned down its allegations that China is violating its territorial claims.

The development complicates Bhutan's relations with India, which blocked Chinese troops after Bhutan, -- a long-time security ally of India's -- notified New Delhi that the troops were attempting to construct a road in a part of the Doklam Plateau claimed by both China and Bhutan.

India and China have accused each other of violating the border, with troops from both countries in a face-off since June. Winning over Bhutan would lend more credence to their claims, and it appears Beijing's overture is having the desired effect. Speaking to Indian reporters earlier this month, a Chinese diplomat said that Bhutan clearly acknowledged to Beijing that the area where Indian troops entered is not part of Bhutan.

If the claim is correct, it would signal a weakening of ties between India and Bhutan.

Although a Bhutanese government official immediately issued a denial to Indian media, New Delhi remains unconvinced. A government source told the Nikkei early this month that China's $10 billion package -- which includes a grant, low-interest loans and direct investment -- is tempting Bhutan.

When External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj met with her Bhutanese counterpart, Damcho Dorji, on Aug. 11 on the sidelines of a regional meeting, she told Dorji not to be betrayed by China, asking further that Bhutan retain its alliance with India. Dorji, however, only said that he hoped the standoff would be resolved peacefully and amicably, refraining from any comment that would provoke China.

In June, Bhutan's foreign ministry blasted China, saying that the construction work violates an agreement between the two countries.

The Chinese government-backed tabloid Global Times later ran an editorial referencing Dorji's comment and stating that Bhutan clearly wants to maintain neutral in its criticism of India.

China is wooing Bhutan in order to validate its presence in Doklam. India sent troops only after Bhutan claimed that China had started construction work in Bhutanese territory. Beijing hopes Bhutan will relinquish its claim to the disputed area, thereby obviating the need for Indian troops, which would then be violating Chinese territory.

According to Indian government sources, China and India informally agreed to simultaneously reduce troop deployments in phases, aiming for a complete withdrawal between September and October, or at least by year-end.

Both Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping need to save face, hence the simultaneous draw down. But tensions remain, with Chinese and Indian soldiers throwing stones at each other in Kashmir.

According to an Indian government source, there are about 320 Indian and 500 Chinese troops in the area, with the numbers declining. But behind them stand 12,000 Indian soldiers and a 16,000-strong Chinese contingent, raising concerns that if shooting starts, it could quickly grow into a major conflict.
?
LOL!
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
China’s PLA readying missiles to stun Indian air power
As tensions mount over Doklam, the Chinese high command understands India’s assumption of air supremacy and is significantly strengthening its air defense arrangements
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Y7tV-fyitapv8788986.jpg



Every summer the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducts a major air defense exercise at its western theater command’s air force experimental training base. The anti-aircraft brigade of the 79th group army was the main participant in this year’s drill, on August 22.

The exercise evaluated the unit’s radar system, command and control network, intercept capabilities, electronic and cyber warfare abilities, mobility and logistics. The batteries engaged a variety of aircraft, including the J-10, J-11, Mil Mi-171, Harbin Z-9 and an assortment of UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles).

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Reporting, Chinese state media gave particular attention to the Hongqi-16 (HQ-16), one of the PLA’s most prized surface-to-air missiles.

Earlier this month,
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surfaced online that shows China moving trainloads of
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continues.

The HQ-16 is a third-generation medium-range air defense missile system. Inspired by the Russian Buk, the HQ-16 has a 40 km maximum range of fire. Cold-launched vertically, it takes 13 minutes for a moving HQ-16 to load and fire missiles armed with 70kg warheads.

The transporting of HQ missiles to Tibet shows the PLA is reinforcing its layered air defense arrangement in anticipation of Indian air power

The HQ-16 can lock-on eight targets and engage four simultaneously. Its missile has a claimed maximum flight speed of Mach 2.8, with a single-hit probability rate of between 70% and 98%. In 2016, an upgraded version known as the HQ-16B was unveiled with a greater range of fire at 70 km.

A battery of HQ-16 consists of four launch vehicles, a target searching radar vehicle, a tracking and guidance radar vehicle, a command and control vehicle, missile transport and reloading vehicles and power supply trucks. The HQ-16 is generally used to defend stationary assets.

The HQ-17, however, is highly mobile. Sitting on an all-terrain tracked chassis, the HQ-17 usually accompanies fast-moving armored units. An improved version of the Russian Tor-M1, the HQ-17 has a 12 km range of fire.

Like the HQ-16, the HQ-17 uses vertical cold launchers against enemy jets, helicopters, smart bombs, cruise missiles and UAVs. But unlike the former, one HQ-17 vehicle combines all functions of an HQ-16 battery, empowering it with greater mobility. It takes ten seconds for a moving HQ-17 to engage an enemy. Carrying eight 9M331 missiles with a maximum flight speed of Mach 2.3, an HQ-17 can engage two targets simultaneously.

The HQ-17’s claimed hit probability against cruise missiles is between 56% and 99%; against fighter jets it’s between 45% and 93%; and against helicopters 82% and 98%.

The transporting of HQ missiles to Tibet shows the PLA is reinforcing its layered air defense arrangement in anticipation of Indian air power. The systems’ suitability for operating on the high plateau was confirmed at an exercise, in May, in Tibet’s Tanggula Mountains.

When reflecting on the 1962 war with China, Indian generals often blame their country’s defeat on its misuse of air power. Many believe the war’s outcome would have been quite different had India’s air force participated in an offensive role.

A recent Vayu Aerospace study concluded that the PLA air force would be at a disadvantage in a future war due to Tibet’s extreme climate, which would will limit the payload and combat radius of Chinese aircraft.

Last year, India deployed supersonic BrahMos missiles to Arunachal Pradesh near Tibet. In June, the Indian army announced its plans to send a squadron of HAL Dhruv helicopters to the Chinese border. More recently, the Indian defense ministry approved a deal to purchase six US-made AH-64 Apache attack helicopters for the army aviation corps and announced that it is looking to procure 234 naval helicopters, at a cost of US$5 billion. On August 24, the Indian air force added six C-130J Super Hercules strategic aircraft to its Arjan Singh base in Panagarh, 470 km from Doklam.

The Chinese high command understands India’s assumption of achieving air supremacy in the next war. However the PLA is quietly putting together a neat little surprise for India’s flyboys.

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discspinner

Junior Member
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hush! hush! the Indians might be reading it :)

That's just the thing ain't it? India can't do anything about it even if they knew. It's going to be a slow motion train wreck for them. Anyways, all quiet on the Western front today. There may just be peace in our time after all.
 
That's just the thing ain't it? ...
I think the thing is if I had gone to an Indian forum (*) I would've seen the same type of statements as the one I quoted Today at 4:54 PM
or your score from Thursday at 11:50 AM
... There will be thousands of KIA/wounded, 10x that on the Indian side. ...
EDIT I mean the sides would be swapped, of course LOL

(*) personally I'm in no other forum; I joined
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group in Facebook: I thought I was good in this topic, but I quickly realized I actually wasn't :)
for example the best guys there can identify (off top of their head) "almost identical" battleships of the same class if the picture date is known, based on the modifications a given ship had received until that date
 
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discspinner

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think the thing is if I had gone to an Indian forum (*) I would've seen the same type of statements as the one I quoted Today at 4:54 PM
or your score from Thursday at 11:50 AM

EDIT I mean the sides would be swapped, of course LOL

(*) personally I'm in no other forum; I joined
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group in Facebook: I thought I was good in this topic, but I quickly realized I actually wasn't :)
for example the best guys there can identify (off top of their head) "almost identical" battleships of the same class if the picture date is known, based on the modifications a given ship had received until that date

Care to add any of your insights to the discussion, sir?
 
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India, China agree to "expeditious disengagement" of border personnel at Doklam:
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DIS_mVtUIAQGGIM.jpg

this looks like a hoax (LOL! why would the statement begin from item #2), but found it inside
the source described here
#319 AndrewS, Wednesday at 10:32 AM
Looks at the biographies of the founders of "The Wire" newspaper.

It was founded by the former Chief editor of "The Hindu", one of India's leading English language newspapers. Previously he was at "The Times of India", and those are the 2 most respected English-language newspapers in India.
:
Doklam Stand-off Ends; Troop ‘Disengagement’ Begins
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