India incursion and Chinese standoff at Dolam, Bhutan

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james smith esq

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India stationing troop on the border is not sign of strength as the Indian believe it
It is more of necessity because of the poor infrastructure on their side. so the necessity to stock up on troop and supply
Being so close to the border it will be the first target either by air or by long range missile. With the advance of cheap air burst and precision munition those troop are very vulnerable
It will be slaughter.

An excellent opportunity to battle-test the newly operational M-20/DF-12, en-masse, maybe?
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vesicles

Colonel
now noticed a credible Russian blogger (if you think there's no such thing, quit reading now LOL) had summarized (
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) the French article
Moscou demandé comme arbitre dans l'Himalaya
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which I can't access without paying 5,20 EUR (LOL) so just briefly according to that Russian: some highly ranked Indian officials visited Moscow this week, asked the Russians
  • to mediate between China and India the Doklam conflict, and
  • to influence the Chinese to soften their stance on
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In my opinion, this is a bad move on the part of the Indians. Asking for mediation is a sign of being weak. I guess the Indians just blinked in a staring contest... assuming this is true of course...
 
That'd be overkill wouldn't it. Might as well save their 10 day's worth of ammo for PLA mobile air defence radars.
by mistake, I didn't say a MAJOR radar site Today at 7:40 PM
primary weapon against a radar site is an air-launched anti-radiation missile, as in
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; that post should've read

"primary weapon against a MAJOR radar site is an air-launched anti-radiation missile, as in
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"

since its context obviously was a MAJOR radar site inside #404 Hendrik_2000, Today at 4:56 PM
 

vesicles

Colonel
I wouldn't bet on the Chinese radar sites having much survivability in a conflict. They are probably one of the few targets that India's Brahmos will be able to be used against effectively. Looking at the map, just imagine an Indian advance into Tibet, where China would be able to deploy its forces in an effective 'broadside' along the main highway, whereas the Indian troops would be lined up in series without ability to reinforce each or to cover the flanks. And the other map very clearly illustrates the terrain of Ladakh as being much more conducive to mechanized warfare.

primary weapon against a radar site is an air-launched anti-radiation missile, as in
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I would assume that these radar sites are also protected by anti-air missiles and other assets. The PLA would not leave their radar sites naked. This is of course assuming the PLA cannot secure air superiority effectively soon enough.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
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Though commentary from China's government has resurfaced this week, thankfully, it appears China is showing continued restraint that may last an additional week or two. China is also clever in utilizing all of the tools in its drawer including making a huge bribe of $10 Billion to Bhutan (population 800,000, remember China's pledge of $20B to India) in developmental assistance. This makes economic sense given a war would be far costlier, and I wouldn't be surprised if China increased its offer substantially.

Even if Bhutan were to relent and declare its diplomatic independence from India by establishing relations with China, I still don't see a conclusion to the stand off on the ground. The question remains as to what India will actually do if Bhutan were to establish diplomatic relations with China by signing a border treaty presumably favorably placing Doklam plateau within Chinese territory. Will India adhere to Bhutan's wishes, or will it do the opposite by trying to annex Bhutan.

Per the situation in Doklam, the commentary from China's news outlets now suggest that a definite resolution may only occur after the BRICS summit (although I don't see the supposed relevance of the BRICS meeeting). However, I do not believe China is going to perpetually kick the can down the road until winter arrives. The commentary from China has explicitly stated that the longer this standoff drags on, the greater India benefits. The large scale military deployment on the border by the PLA incurs a significant cost as well.

From the military angle, I think it is quite reasonable to reason what China's strategy is. A sizable mobile force is stationed in central southern Tibet south of Lhasa near China's transportation infrastructure that can respond to and meet any Indian advance into Tibet. Meanwhile, Ladakh would be the staging ground for a ground assault, if the situation presents itself. This make sense because such a location would be further from India's own supply lines, on terrain more suitable for mechanized warfare, and be closer to PLA airbases in Xinjiang, and supply line to central China more safely protected / repairable on flatter ground. Of course, we all know where the real prize is if war comes to it.

I don't see India annexing Bhutan because of the costs imposed by China.

As for India benefiting the longer the standoff exists, this applies in the short-run. But in the long-run, it reinforces the point that Bhutan has to find a way to become independent of India.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
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I don't know if anyone else specifically pointed this out on this thread before, your first two paragraphs illustrate why the whole "China having a road through Doklam is a threat to India's 'chicken neck'" is a flimsy theory that doesn't make military sense.

I agree. India just has too many troops in the Chicken's neck area for a few km of road in Doklam to matter.

India is involved in Doklam because they think that this will force Bhutan to turn away from China and stay with India.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
@Hendrik_2000

Poor infrastructure in India doesn't change the fact that large numbers of Indian troops are stationed close to their operating areas, which is an advantage.

Yes, there is poor infrastructure on the Indian side, but that just means any Chinese advance will face those transportation bottlenecks.

And as I've said before, the key thing is air superiority in the area, but that will take some time because Doklam is in range of most of India's airbases whereas China has far fewer airbases in range.

Remember that in the event of a conflict, India will need a large number of troops in Doklam. So they might as well station those troops there.

Also, peacetime troop resupply actually is very cheap if you think about it. It is just trucks spending some more time on the road.

India stationing troop on the border is not sign of strength as the Indian believe it
It is more of necessity because of the poor infrastructure on their side. so the necessity to stock up on troop and supply
Being so close to the border it will be the first target either by air or by long range missile. With the advance of cheap air burst and precision munition those troop are very vulnerable
It will be slaughter.
Not to mention it is very expensive to supply those troop.

China built all kind of road parallel to border but set back 200 km and built feeder road to the border to allow for rapid movement of troop and supply. Of course they must be station close to start of the road. They are out of reach of Indian artillery which mostly are tow type and again vulnerable to counter strike. Indian airforce operational readiness are dismal combine with limited supply of part and munition they will be running out of munition in the first week of fighting
In 62 China has long supply road since the only road is form Xinjiang and all supply must come from Xinjiang The road you see here hasn't been built. Now with railroad and highway from Lhasa to China inner province of Gansu. The road is much better layout and built
China also has extensive radar station monitoring the Indian airforce and ground troop. Plenty of forward bases with barrack and support system


View attachment 41675

This is indian guy who produce this video so disregard his comment

observes every
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movement in Siachen.
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plot suggests More
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DIETd1DV0AEbySD.jpg


DIETf0aUIAIDyRr.jpg
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
@Hendrik_2000

Poor infrastructure in India doesn't change the fact that large numbers of Indian troops are stationed close to their operating areas, which is an advantage.

Yes, there is poor infrastructure on the Indian side, but that just means any Chinese advance will face those transportation bottlenecks.

And as I've said before, the key thing is air superiority in the area, but that will take some time because Doklam is in range of most of India's airbases whereas China has far fewer airbases in range.

Remember that in the event of a conflict, India will need a large number of troops in Doklam. So they might as well station those troops there.

Also, peacetime troop resupply actually is very cheap if you think about it. It is just trucks spending some more time on the road.

Yes but resupplying trucks would still need lots of fuel to go through rough terrain and supplying enough for all those Indian troops stationing there. Question is does India has enough fuel for not only supplying the troops but the all those air support as well? Even in a peace time situation it would still be quite costly as far as fuel is concern.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Yes but resupplying trucks would still need lots of fuel to go through rough terrain and supplying enough for all those Indian troops stationing there. Question is does India has enough fuel for not only supplying the troops but the all those air support as well? Even in a peace time situation it would still be quite costly as far as fuel is concern.

I don't understand what point you're trying to make.

In peacetime, the cost of extra truck travel time is low compared to the overall cost of sustaining an army units. So it does make sense for Indian army units to stockpile supplies in the area.

Again, the key thing is air superiority. If China has air superiority in the area, no Indian supply trucks will be able to travel on any road.

In terms of resupplying Indian airbases, most of the airbases are deep enough in Indian terriroty that fuel supply isn't an issue.
 
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