China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

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lucretius

Junior Member
Registered Member
How many nukes is enough?

Honestly there isn't a country on earth which would not be utterly ruined by less than 50 nukes.

2 small (by modern standards) nuclear strikes brought Japan to it's knees in WW2.

Let's take the Royal Navy's Vanguard class for example.

The UK has one boat deployed continuously which can carry 16 missiles, each with 8 warheads.

The UK only ever loads 8 missiles to meet treaty obligations, but considers this enough.
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
You can get a rough estimate on how many possible nukes a country has by the international nuclear agencies. I'm not sure exactly how it works or which agencies are involved but the international trade in nuclear materials and technology is regulated. So if a country wants to have nuclear power for electricity or trade in it like with uranium, you have to be a member or else countries like the US will make it difficult for the country by leading other members to follow suit according to the rules. It's rule by gangbang much like the missile technology control regime (MTCR). It's not international law but all members are suppose to join together to take action against members violating or force a non-member through gangbanging pressure. One of the requirements being a member is allowing these international agencies into whatever country's nuclear facilities for inspections. There they will cross check with their records all materials the country has which tells inspectors how much plutonium could've been produce and if any materials are missing from inventory. You can estimate how many nuclear weapons could be made from it. Of course there are holes in the system because for example a country that has it's own uranium deposits could hide it but they most likely will still need to buy the technology to process it hence why the selling of those technologies too are regulated and reported.

That process is primarily to ensure countries cannot develop a nuclear weapons programme from civilian nuclear tech and materials bought for civilian nuclear plants.

It keeps tight track of nuclear materials purchase from the global civilian nuclear markets, and inspectors need full access to all facilities where such nuclear materials goes.

But inspectors will have zero rights to access a recognised nuclear power's military nuclear facilities, because the whole point is that none of that material should ever end up at a military nuclear facility.

Being part of the NSG allows a country to devote its entire domestic nuclear materials deposites to weapons while relying on foreign imports for its civilian power needs.

That is why there was so much objections and distaste when Bush forces an Indian sized hole in the NSG rules to allow India membership even though they refuse to sign the nuclear test ban treaty.

But back to the point, being part of the NSG does not mean China could expand its nuclear weapons sticks by importing nuclear materials, but it does nothing to stop China from expanding its nuclear inventory with domestically sourced materials.

I tend to believe China has a modest nuclear warhead stock, but probably has vast weapons grade nuclear materials stocks that could be turned into new warheads very quickly.

That is a kind of best of both worlds solution that is typical of the Chinese.

They get to play the responsible party card by pointing to their modest warhead inventory; do not have to spend vast sums on warhead maintenance and security; do not have to worry about warhead aging and obsolescence; can apply the newest technologies and breakthoughts to its warheads (Chinese supercomputer tech has vastly improved in recent decades, allowing for far better warhead designs through modelling that was simply not possible before); but can rapidly expand its warhead numbers if a nuclear arms race happens.
 

FORBIN

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Honestly there isn't a country on earth which would not be utterly ruined by less than 50 nukes.

2 small (by modern standards) nuclear strikes brought Japan to it's knees in WW2.

Let's take the Royal Navy's Vanguard class for example.

The UK has one boat deployed continuously which can carry 16 missiles, each with 8 warheads.

The UK only ever loads 8 missiles to meet treaty obligations, but considers this enough.

8 is the number limited by treaty the maximum is to 14 by Trident II and each UK SLBM have since severals years an average of 3 warheads : 180 for 58 missiles.

All SSBNs without exception going in patrol always full in missiles and never UK have treaty obligations ofc only USA and Russia have with START.
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
what make you think The Chinese haven't? ;)

I believe the Chinese have had at least 500 warheads on ICBM/SLBM already .. Chinese top leaders are not stupid and obviously way smarter than you'd think

If you'd read my statement correctly (maybe with a lil' patient humility), you'd have understood that I referred specifically to inter-continental delivery systems. If you can find one member, here, that will support an assertion that China has 400 - 500 intercontinental missiles, I'll retract my post.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
That process is primarily to ensure countries cannot develop a nuclear weapons programme from civilian nuclear tech and materials bought for civilian nuclear plants.

It keeps tight track of nuclear materials purchase from the global civilian nuclear markets, and inspectors need full access to all facilities where such nuclear materials goes.

But inspectors will have zero rights to access a recognised nuclear power's military nuclear facilities, because the whole point is that none of that material should ever end up at a military nuclear facility.

Being part of the NSG allows a country to devote its entire domestic nuclear materials deposites to weapons while relying on foreign imports for its civilian power needs.

That is why there was so much objections and distaste when Bush forces an Indian sized hole in the NSG rules to allow India membership even though they refuse to sign the nuclear test ban treaty.

But back to the point, being part of the NSG does not mean China could expand its nuclear weapons sticks by importing nuclear materials, but it does nothing to stop China from expanding its nuclear inventory with domestically sourced materials.

I tend to believe China has a modest nuclear warhead stock, but probably has vast weapons grade nuclear materials stocks that could be turned into new warheads very quickly.

That is a kind of best of both worlds solution that is typical of the Chinese.

They get to play the responsible party card by pointing to their modest warhead inventory; do not have to spend vast sums on warhead maintenance and security; do not have to worry about warhead aging and obsolescence; can apply the newest technologies and breakthoughts to its warheads (Chinese supercomputer tech has vastly improved in recent decades, allowing for far better warhead designs through modelling that was simply not possible before); but can rapidly expand its warhead numbers if a nuclear arms race happens.


Well I wasn't talking about it stopping a country from making nuclear weapons. It's a means to get a window on how many nukes a country could make whether they disclose it or hide it. How many nuclear power plants a country has one can estimate how much plutonium is produced as a byproduct hence you can estimate how many nuclear weapons could be made from it. If a country discloses how much uranium or plutonium they have, the numbers estimated are more exact. That's how these estimates of how many nukes a country has is on part made. Then you have the technology side. Very few countries can do the whole process by themselves. So another way to track is what countries buy. More advance countries where these technologies are produced are more likely to be a part of these technology control regimes and therefore report sales. I don't know how much China participates because it's one of those countries that can do everything themselves but if they want to sell a nuclear power plant, a country most likely to afford it is going to be a part of this international nuclear technology regime and they would follow the rules. If China wants an easier time selling their nuclear power plants, they would have to follow the rules. Like I said it's not international law but the web it cast over the entire industry in a way gives an idea how many nukes a country can make. Yes there are still wholes but it gives an idea. It's doesn't mean the country has that many because yes maintaining nuclear weapons is expensive. You hear estimates of China nuclear arsenal ranges from a few hundred to a few thousand is probably because that's how large China's window is estimated to be.
 
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delft

Brigadier
If you try to burn up as much U235 you can in a power reactor as is the practice nowadays your Pu239 will be poisoned isotopes which are alpha emitters so this Pu is awkward to use in a bomb. Early reactor types like Magnox and Candu were designed to produce Pu for weapons with the electricity produced being a by product. Such matters make estimating the Pu produced for weapons more complex.
 

advill

Junior Member
Serious thinking needs to be looked into by leaders of countries regarding the use of nuclear weapons. In such situations, retaliations can be expected - NO winners in any nuclear war. There will be total destruction on all sides. No country wants to be a loser, BUT the actual fact is everyone loses. The question is: Are we fair to our future generations.......... looks like with all the recent rhetoric, we are heading down the path of destruction on all sides.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
This thing is operational
DF-31AG

DG_vuzEVwAAwDJN.jpg
 
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