Chinese Economics Thread

Since this is an economic plan, I'll put this here:
(Despite the stupid title)


World dominance in three steps: China sets out road map to lead in artificial intelligence by 2030

The Chinese government’s July 8 plan aims to keep pace with AI technology by 2020, make major breakthroughs by 2025, and lead the world in AI by 2030.

PUBLISHED : Friday, 21 July, 2017, 1:28pm
UPDATED : Friday, 21 July, 2017, 11:30pm




China, already the world’s second-largest investor in artificial intelligence (AI), has set out an ambitious plan to leap frog ahead of the United States to be the global leader in the field by 2030.

The proposal, laid out on July 8 by the State Council and distributed on July 20, takes a three-step approach: firstly keep pace with leading AI technology and applications in general by 2020, make major breakthroughs by 2025, and be the world leader in the field five years thereafter.





The ambitious plan will be an economic bonanza for the country’s technology firms, as the area defined as core AI is expected to be valued at 150 billion yuan by 2020, while AI-related fields are valued at 1 trillion yuan, according to the government’s forecast. By 2025, those values will exceed 400 billion yuan and 5 trillion yuan (US$739 billion) respectively.




Government finance will lead the way in AI research, including the development of supercomputers, and high performance semiconductor chips, software and the hiring of key talent to lead the field, China’s science and technology minister Wan Gang said in March during the country’s parliamentary meeting.

The focus on AI sets a new director for China’s economic model, which is trying to wean industries and state-owned enterprises off years of exports manufacturing to reinvent themselves to stay relevant for the future. Up to 26 per cent of China’s gross domestic products (GDP) could be generated by AI-related industries by 2030, making the country the world’s biggest winner from investing in the field, according to a report last month by PricewaterhouseCoopers.



AI technologies are expected to bolster global GDP by 14 per cent by 2030, the equivalent of US$15.7 trillion, by improving labour productivity and spurring consumption, said the report.

JD.com, one of China’s biggest e-commerce service providers with 120,622 employees on staff, is using AI and robotics to improve efficiency in logistics and warehousing, said its founder and chairman Richard Liu Qiangdong.





“In the next 12 years, we aim to have multiple-fold growth in our business,” Liu said during a technology conference on Thursday in Shanghai. “I believe that 10 years from now, the total number of employees may be even smaller than what we have today. Our aim is to have 80,000 employees.”


JD.com is not alone. Chinese internet companies led by Alibaba Group Holding, Baidu and Tencent Holdings have been investing heavily in AI applications. Alibaba, which owns the South China Morning Post, already has an AI bot that can recognise counterfeits on its Taobao Marketplace and Tmall.com online shopping platforms, while Baidu is developing AI-assisted autonomous driving system with Microsoft and other major companies.


Lenovo Group, the world's second-largest personal computer supplier as of the second quarter, said this week it has set aside at least US$1.2 billion to beef up research and development in AI, as the company expects drastic changes to personal computing and consumer electronic devices over the next three to four years.




This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as:
Beijing maps out BOLD new plan to lead world in A.i.

it's kinda cool view:

Jack Ma, founder of the world's largest e-commerce trading platform Alibaba, gives a public lecture at the University of Nairobi, Kenya, July 20, 2017. Ma is visiting Kenya in a tour arranged by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), to promote global entrepreneurship and to mentor young and upcoming entrepreneurs. (Xinhua/Lyu Shuai)

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Trump and his admin mad that China treating US like Vietnam, only concessions LNG, rice and beef to reduce surplus, treating US like a third world country.

No concession for US at hightech and industrial areas.

Fair exchange as US keeps China investment out of US hightech and barring Chinese tech companies at US market.

tidalwave said:

Trump and his admin mad that China treating US like Vietnam, only concessions LNG, rice and beef to reduce surplus, treating US like a third world country.

No concession for US at hightech and industrial areas.

Fair exchange as US keeps China investment out of US hightech and barring Chinese tech companies at US market.

Click to expand...

I thought the US has banned most of high tech products to China, like high-end Xeon or high-end CNC machine, and China simply develop by themselves or buy from Germany for high-end CNC ... so raw material are the only things China can buy from the US ... why mad?

""

Chinese shipbuilders tap rising cruise demand, rattle European rivals

By Brenda Goh
July 24, 2017



View photos
Labourers work at Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. in Shanghai, China June 15, 2017. Picture taken June 15, 2017. REUTERS/Aly Song
By Brenda Goh

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - European shipbuilders' dominance in the $117 billion passenger ship industry may come under threat as Chinese rivals move into the sector to tap booming local demand for cruise holidays.

China's government has earmarked cruise shipbuilding as a major objective in its "Made in China 2025" program to upgrade its domestic manufacturing and support jobs at its shipyards, as domestic demand for cruise trips increases 30 percent a year.

This push into the higher-value cruise vessel sector is rattling European yards, leaders in an industry that requires sophisticated supply chains to make and fit out complex luxury liners. Some European shipbuilders fear China could come to dominate the cruise ship market, much as it has done in cargo ships over recent decades.

"This is a state objective that threatens to cause tremendous distortion in competition," said Reinhard Luken, chief executive of the German Shipbuilding and Ocean Industries Association (VSM), which represents German maritime firms such as shipbuilders Meyer Werft and Meyer Turku.

"There are almost endless resources available if China has set a goal."

Still, learning how to build cruise ships will not be easy for the Chinese, given the complex web of suppliers needed to furnish items from luxury carpets to soundproofing, industry experts say.

Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries <7011.T> quit building European cruise liners in October after its losses on two vessels for cruise operator Carnival Corp topped $2 billion.

"It's a hotel on the sea, (and) requires at least a few hundred suppliers," said Lin Li, general manager at Lloyds' Register's Greater China marine and offshore business development department.

China's shift into the cruise sector also comes as global demand for cargo ships has collapsed, shuttering scores of Chinese yards.

EUROPEAN EXPERTISE

At the Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding yard <600150.SS> at the mouth of the Yangtze River, China State Shipbuilding Corp (CSSC) has brought in European advisers, including Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri , to help it learn how to compete in building cruise ships.

It has also attracted foreign suppliers such as Finland's Wartsila to set up local joint ventures.

"Fincantieri has brought a few hundred workers here, and CSSC has sent technical staff to England for training," said Alan Mong, a CSSC employee, during a recent media tour of the yard.

CSSC's order for two cruise ships, which will be able to carry up to 5,000 passengers, is part of a $1.5 billion deal signed in February with Carnival and Fincantieri. That deal, three years in the making, also includes an option for four more ships.

Fincantieri was encouraged to help China by Carnival, its biggest customer, which is itself pushing to develop China cruise lines, said two industry executives familiar with the local market. They asked not to be named as they didn't want to jeopardize business relationships.

They said Carnival was told by the Chinese government it could only grow in China's cruise market - projected to be the world's second largest after the United States by 2030 - by helping the domestic industry develop.

CSSC did not respond to Reuters' request for comment. China's Ministry of Commerce declined to comment, saying it was a company matter.

Carnival said it encouraged Fincantieri to participate in the shipbuilding project, but noted its own plans to launch China's first domestic cruise line with CSSC and China Investment Corp were negotiated independently. Fincantieri said it got into the Chinese market "based nothing more than on an analysis regarding the business opportunities from the great potential of the market."

DISCOUNTS

Other Chinese yards are following suit, offering discounts of up to 30 percent, and earlier delivery, to win orders from Western cruise lines.

In March, China Merchants Industry Holdings agreed a deal to build up to 10 vessels for Miami-based SunStone Ships, and Xiamen Shipbuilding Industry Co won a 194 million euro ($222 million) order from Finland's Viking Line in April for a 2,800-passenger cruise ferry.

"We were surprised at the number of interested yards," said Viking Line's CEO Jan Hanses, saying he received interest from six Chinese yards, including Guangzhou International Shipyard, Yantai CIMC Raffles and AVIC Weihai Shipyard.


"Competition is always good... If the European yards are left without competition they will stagnate."

European yards currently have 68 cruise ships on order up to 2025, according to data from industry publication Seatrade Cruise, comfortably ahead of other regions.

But Nathalie Durand-Prinborgne, a representative for labor union Force Ouvrière's section at shipbuilder STX France, said there are fears that French shipyards could eventually abandon the cruise market to the Chinese, as they did with LNG tankers.

Because of technology transfer concerns, she said the union opposes Fincantieri's proposed takeover of STX France, which employs 2,600 people at the western port of Saint-Nazaire.

"In allying itself with the Chinese, Fincantieri not only shot itself in the foot, but also fired into ours," she added.

And Raoul Jack, principal consultant at PFJ Maritime, an adviser to Chinese yards entering the cruise market, says it may be futile to try and stop the shift.

"Every yard is looking at the markets that are the most buoyant," he said.

(Reporting by Brenda Goh, with additional reporting by Guillaume Frouin in NANTES and SHANGHAI Newsroom; Editing by Ian Geoghegan)

now I read
China's annual growth forecast to be 6.8 percent: reports
Xinhua| 2017-07-25 15:36:54

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Two institutions on Tuesday forecast China's annual GDP growth to be about 6.8 percent this year, lower than the 6.9 percent for the first half, but higher than the annual target of around 6.5 percent.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said in a report that growth in Q3 and Q4 will be 6.8 percent and 6.7 percent, as investment, consumption and exports may grow at slightly lower rates.

"China's economy will continue its steady performance, and we are confident about the country meeting its annual growth target," the report said.

A report released by the State Information Center (SIC) made the same projection about the annual growth, and said that growth in the latter half will be around 6.7 percent.

"The economy will maintain the trend of stabilization with sound momentum," the SIC said.

However, economic growth in the second half will feel the pressure from difficult cost reduction and deleveraging tasks, weak private investment and tight liquidity, it added.

The country's efforts to contain financial risks and lower the leverage ratio have been accompanied by tighter liquidity and higher borrowing costs, affecting production and investment, the SIC said.

China's economic growth has been in the range of 6.7 percent to 7 percent for 10 consecutive quarters.

The quarterly pace has risen from 6.7 percent for the first three quarters of 2016 and 6.8 percent in Q4 of 2016 to 6.9 percent in the first two quarters of this year.

On Monday, the International Monetary Fund revised China's growth forecast for 2017 up to 6.7 percent from the previous 6.6 percent, according to its updated World Economic Outlook report.

It also raised the 2018 forecast for China from 6.2 percent to 6.4 percent.

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antiterror13 said:

I thought the US has banned most of high tech products to China, like high-end Xeon or high-end CNC machine, and China simply develop by themselves or buy from Germany for high-end CNC ... so raw material are the only things China can buy from the US ... why mad?

Click to expand...

Trump wants China to lower the tariff on finished US cars into China market.
Recent economic dialogue ended with US cancelling any post meeting & announcement as China only gave concession on US rice.

Here is a article of why it broke down from China's prospective, US is not willing to selling high tech product to China which is what China really wants, I think its because they are afraid China will just copy it, which is actually a valid concern for US, instead US wants to sell China GMO foods and crappy cars which China produces plenty on their own and can get it from dozens of other sources. But at same time, China is actually selling consumer goods to US that Americans really wants to buy.

But in the end, China did give some concession, like allow US to sell rice and beef to China, but I don't know if US agree to sell any high tech stuff to China.







American media bigoted on Sino-US trade ties



The first China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue (CED) concluded in Washington on Wednesday with a canceled news conference. According to a brief statement issued by the US side, "China acknowledged our shared objective to reduce the trade deficit which both sides will work cooperatively to achieve." A Chinese statement said the two sides had a frank, friendly and constructive dialogue.

Western mainstream media chanted a pessimistic tune. It noted that the dialogue ended without reaching agreement on major issues, and predicted that the Sino-US honeymoon is over, and the Trump administration will adopt a more hard-line policy toward China.

The news conference was canceled and there was a reason behind it. But neither side emphasized disagreements after the dialogue, which is an important gesture.

The US media has a strong motivation to believe the Sino-US dialogue is falling apart. They may not really want a China-US economic confrontation to break out, but would like to see the Trump administration become a laughing stock.

Also, the US media does not understand the essence of the Sino-US trade issue. Blaming China alone for a bilateral trade imbalance is the error of a layman. The problem lies in the distorted US trade policy toward China. The US is reluctant to sell high tech products that China actually needs. Instead the US tries to promote the sale of genetically modified agricultural products and mediocre automobiles. However, China sells the US products that the US wants. How could the problem be fixed?

Through communication, US trade officials will realize that the problem stems from America's economic structure. Made-in-USA products meet low demand not just in China, but in many places in the world.

American universities are appealing to Chinese students. Washington should create more favorable conditions for Chinese to study in the US, rather than push Chinese customers to buy unattractive American automobiles.

China is a moderate country, and has no will to confront the US. But Beijing must stick to the bottom line of its national security. China is willing to help the US reduce its trade deficit, but China cannot solve the America's own problems.

Beijing is willing to make adjustments that bring no harm to Chinese national security and are meanwhile acceptable to the Chinese market, but will never make concessions beyond that scope, no matter how much pressure Washington imposes on China.

If Washington imposes punitive tariffs on Chinese goods, then a trade war will be triggered and China will certainly take retaliatory measures. A trade war will only result in lose-lose results, which does no good for the Trump administration.

The Trump administration should remain clear-minded amid pessimistic voices in the US media against Sino-US relations.

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