ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

Hi Delft

The story is that deconfliction co-operation has now been halted and that any Coalition aircraft flying West of the Euphrates will be tracked as targets.

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Meanwhile, The Syrian Army and its allies have done as they did on the Southern border; continue with the mission and refuse to be drawn.

In this instance, the mission was to secure the town and crossroads at Rusafa, which gives an open road for the SAA to Deir Ezzor and which locks the SDF in place at Tabbqa.

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All this direct brinksmanship by the main foreign backers of the competing factions can get real ugly real quick even if it doesn't spiral out of control.
 
I understand your feeling to the suffering of the population, but there is no other alternatives than SAA's victory. If it ever existed, the true secular rebel faction has long gone, dead or deserted to the terrorists (Nusra and ISIS, the real capable fighting forces). What is left alive on the ground are Syrian state, terrorists (green or black) and SDF. SDF is a total different story as they are not necessarily fighting for Syria (as a state) especially considering their backer. So what are left for the rest of Syria are SAA vs. Terrorists.

There is an alternative which is what is actually happening, Syria's de facto partition. At least for now unless or until it spirals into a wider war.
 

Yvrch

Junior Member
Registered Member
These Frankenstein states stitched out of thick grease pencil lines had a good run well past a century mark.
Sykes-Picot, Durand, Mc Mahon. What else?
Now these folks preach freedom, democracy and human rights, with a straight face no less. Incredible!
 

flyzies

Junior Member
The situation is evolving quickly; it wasn't long ago that the SAA and their Russian advisors had to go into SDF areas to prevent Turkish backed militias from attacking them. Now the tension between the government and the SDF has considerably risen, as they both prepare for a post-ISIS future.

My POV is that the Euphrates will provide a natural de-facto border between these 2 groups. Any serious attempts by the Kurdish forces to establish themselves west of this river will result in clashes, esp around the area of De-Ezzor and south of Raqqa.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
There is an alternative which is what is actually happening, Syria's de facto partition. At least for now unless or until it spirals into a wider war.
Partition (de facto or de jure) is about Kurds, not about the green and black factions. Kurds was not the root cause of the current fighting. They did not rise against the state, nor did they want to risk their lives for the state to fight the insurgents. Kurds was not the problem, neither is the problem now, it may become a new problem if they choose to secede. Then it would become a real sectarian war involving not only Syrian state but also Turkey (on Syrian side) and Iraqi state (on Syrian side) and Iraqi Kurds on opposing side.

When I replied to Equation's post #5358, I believes that he meant the current fights between SAA or SDF on one side and the green and blacks on the other side.

So partition along the line between Syrian Arab (both Alaweit and Sunni) and Kurds (SDF) is not an alternative that we were talking about. It may however become a valid issue if (after the defeat of green and black) SDF decides to go for secession instead of remaining within Syria with greater autonomy, then we can revisit this subject. But IMO I would wish the Kurds think twice, the formal Yugoslavia was a bloody bad example, the current Ukrainian crisis is another although less bloody but surely crippling Ukraine to a failed state, it simply does not worth the lives of ordinary Kurds and Arabs who only want to have a life.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
a
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/ CCTV (China Central TV) program "International matters" June 20th.
Among many things there is one thing related to Syria at 5:15

All remember this Syrian boy? Omran Daqneesh

At the time western media has portrayed him being the victim of Syrian government air raid and the "white helmet" being the "brave saviors" of people in Aleppo.

In this CCTV program, Chinese journalist interviewed his father (Mohamed Kheir Daqneesh) and him in Aleppo recently. Here is a Huanqiu article referring the interview with Chinese transcription.
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  1. They were inside the house when an explosion happened. They did not hear airplane. They did not know who caused that explosion, nor what was it.
  2. Omran was slightly cut but nothing serious. The blood on his forehead was his father's who carried him out of the house.
  3. The "white helmets" GRABBED Omran from his father and put him in the ambulance, NOT rescuing him from the house.
  4. Omran did not cry NOT because of shock of the explosion, BUT because of being taken away from his father and confused.
  5. The family was offered by many groups and governments including US for settlement in other countries and CASH (10,000 USD by an unnamed gulf state) in return to condemn Syrian government for that "bombing". But the family REFUSED and remained in Aleppo.
  6. The family was then harassed by the rebels for non-compliance. Harassments include announcing the (faked) deaths of a daughter and Omran for 5 times.
  7. Today the father works in a factory in Aleppo.
A telegraph article about interviews conducted by other "pro-regime" news outlets from Russian and Lebanese:
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The tone of "telegraph" is predictable, but it does not change the facts:
  1. The family refused to "evacuate" with the rebels from Aleppo.
  2. The family refused the bribe and remained loyal to Syria, unlike the "twitter" girl who moved to Turkey. BTW the girl had never had a scratch nor her family, "amazing".
  3. The family moved to the Government controlled Aleppo once they had a chance.
  4. All these choices were made when they were "protected" and "represented" by the "rebels" in Aleppo.
Another perfect example of western media's perfection in lying. Reminds me of the same media's performance in 2008 by calling the Han victims' corpses as Uyghurs killed by Chinese security force.

An equally important thing is that a "documentary" about white helmet was awarded by Oscar 2017. That tells what Oscar award and its financiers are, and all the other similar sorts of awards in the name of "peace".

The more these lairs lie, the less people there is to believe them. It is the beginning of the downfall of the "soft-power".
 
Impressive!

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Sniper hits ISIS target from over 2 miles away
By Zachary Cohen, CNN
Updated 8:54 PM ET, Thu June 22, 2017

Washington (CNN)A Canadian special operations sniper successfully hit an ISIS fighter from a record-breaking distance of more than two miles away while assisting Iraqi forces in the push to retake Mosul, according to Canadian Special Operations Command.

The unnamed marksman was part of Canada's elite Joint Task Force 2 special operations unit that is currently deployed in an "advise and assist" capacity to help Iraqi security forces battle ISIS from behind the front line in Mosul.

"The Canadian Special Operations Command can confirm that a member of the Joint Task Force 2 successfully hit a target from 3,540 meters. For operational security reasons and to preserve the safety of our personnel and our Coalition partners, we will not discuss precise details on when and how this incident took place," the unit said in a written statement.

Due to the distance of the shot, some voices in the military community expressed skepticism at the Canadian government's report. The reported shot from 3,540 meters, or about 2.2 miles, would eclipse the previous sniper world record of 2,474 meters or 1.54 miles set by the United Kingdom's Craig Harrison when he killed two Taliban insurgents in November 2009.

The Globe and Mail first reported the shot's success and said it disrupted an ISIS attack on Iraqi forces, citing unnamed sources.

"The elite sniper was using a McMillan TAC-50 sniper rifle while firing from a high-rise during an operation that took place within the last month in Iraq. It took under 10 seconds to hit the target," the paper said.

The Canadian military unit confirmed the distance of shot shortly after the Globe and Mail story was published, but the shot has yet to be formally confirmed a third party agency.

In 2016, the Canadian government announced it would triple its training efforts in northern Iraq despite pulling out of the US-led ISIS bombing campaign the year before.

In May, Iraqi forces began what they hope is the final push to crush ISIS in Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city.
 

delft

Brigadier
From the other side of the theatre, from AMN:
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Syrian Army turns the tables on Al-Qaeda rebels despite Israeli airstrikes
By
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- 25/06/2017

DAMASCUS, SYRIA (2:00 A.M.) – Israel is likely in direct military talks with jihadist commanders in Quneitra province whom have now established a joint operations room for the ongoing border offensive against the Syrian Arab Army (SAA).

Preempted by
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earlier in the day, Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) and Free Syrian Army (FSA) factions attacked SAA positions around Baath city and overran multiple points, leading to the capture of the Mashtal Al-Zohor area on Saturday afternoon.

In the evening however, the SAA regrouped in Baath city and mobilized all its military capabilities for a swift counter-offensive which saw government troops retake all lost points within a couple hours, thus driving the jihadist militants back to their initial positions.

Amid the skirmishes, at least 20 jihadist militants were left dead on the battlefield while 1 tank and 1 technical were destroyed, a military source told Al-Masdar News.

Throughout the waves of insurgent attacks and following SAA counter-offensive, rearguard Syrian artillery units pounded the hostile jihadist belligerents.

With the tables suddenly turned in favor of the Syrian Government, the SAA is currently encroaching upon long-standing rebel heartland on the border with Israel. In turn, this could prompt Tel Aviv to launch fresh airstrikes against the SAA.

On Saturday afternoon, the
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at the Municipal building area on the outskirts of Baath city, rendering it an easy target for rebel forces whom seemed well-prepared for offensive operations ahead of the Israeli sorties, suggesting at least tacit cooperation between the two parties in the face of a common foe.
 

N00813

Junior Member
Registered Member
Regarding the alleged chemical attack on Khan Sheikhoun;
Looks like a quickly transcribed conversation between a SF guy and his handler.
Up to you readers to believe it or not, but Hersh has a long track record of doing good work:

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Intelligence officials doubted the alleged Sarin gas attack at Khan Sheikhoun. WELT AM SONNTAG presents a chat protocol of a security advisor and an active American soldier on duty at a key base in the region.


This conversation was provided to Seymour Hersh. It is betweeen a security adviser and an active US American soldier on duty on a key operational base about the events in Khan Sheikhoun. We have made abbreviations: American soldier (AS) and Security Advisor (SA). WELT AM SONNTAG is aware of the location of the deployment. For security reasons, certain details of military operations have been omitted.

April 6, 2017
American Soldier: We got a fuckin‘ problem

Security-Adviser: What happened? Is it the Trump ignoring the Intel and going to try to hit the Syrians? And that we’re pissing on the Russians?


AS: This is bad...Things are spooling up.

SA: You may not have seen trumps press conference yesterday. He's bought into the media story without asking to see the Intel. We are likely to get our asses kicked by the Russians. Fucking dangerous. Where are the godamn adults? The failure of the chain of command to tell the President the truth, whether he wants to hear it or not, will go down in history as one of our worst moments.


AS: I don't know. None of this makes any sense. We KNOW that there was no chemical attack. The Syrians struck a weapons cache (a legitimate military target) and there was collateral damage. That's it. They did not conduct any sort of a chemical attack. [emphasis mine]

AS: And now we’re shoving a shit load of TLAMs (tomahawks) up their ass.

SA: There has been a hidden agenda all along. This is about trying to ultimately go after Iran. What the people around Trump do not understand is that the Russians are not a paper tiger and that they have more robust military capability than we do.

AS: I don't know what the Russians are going to do. They might hang back and let the Syrians defend their own borders, or they might provide some sort of tepid support, or they might blow us the fuck out of the airspace and back into Iraq. I honestly don't know what to expect right now. I feel like anything is possible. The russian air defense system is capable of taking out our TLAMs. this is a big fucking deal...we are still all systems go...

SA: You are so right. Russia is not going to take this lying down

SA: Who is pushing this? Is it coming from Votel (General Joseph L. Votel, Commander of United States Central Command, editor‘s note) ?

AS: I don't know. It's from someone big though. . . . This is a big fucking deal.

AS: It has to be POTUS.

AS: They [the russians] are weighing their options. Indications are they are going to be passive supporters of syria and not engage their systems unless their own assets are threatened..in other words, the sky is fucking blue.'

April 7, 2017
SA: What are the Russians doing or saying Am I correct that we did little real damage to Russia or Syria?

AS: We didn't hit a damn thing, thankfully. They retrograded all their aircraft and personnel. We basically gave them a very expensive fireworks display.

AS: They knew where ships were and watched the entire strike from launch to end game.

AS: The Russians are furious. Claiming we have the real Intel and know the truth about the weapons depot strike.

AS: They are correct.

AS: I guess it really didn't matter whether we elected Clinton or Trump. Fuck.

AS: No one is talking about the entire reason we're in Iraq and Syria in the first place. That mission is fucked now.

SA: Are any of your colleagues pissed or is everyone going along with it and saying this is OK

AS: It's a mad house. . . .Hell we even told the Russians an hour before impact

SA: But they clearly knew it was coming

AS: Oh of course

AS: Now Fox is saying we chose to hit the Syrian airfield because it is where the chemical attacks were launched from. Wow. Can't make this shit up.

SA: They are. I mean, making it up

AS: It's so fuckin evil

SA: Amen!!!

April 8, 2017
AS: Russians are being extremely reasonable. Despite what the news is reporting they are still trying to deconflict and coordinate the air campaign.

SA: I don't think the russia yet understands how crazy Trump is over this. And i don't think we appreciate how much damage the Russians can do to us.

AS: They're showing amazing restraint and been unbelievably calm. They seem mostly interested in de-escalating everything. They don't want to lose our support in the help with destroying Isis.

SA: But I get the get the feeling are simply trying this approach for as long as they feel it might work. If we keep pushing this current aggressive stance they're going to hit back.'
 
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