Chinese Economics Thread

America second? Yes, and China’s lead is only growing

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America second? Yes, and China’s lead is only growing

This was a pretty good article until it repeated the common false and unhelpful blame China for US problems line towards the end.

American elites are lining their own pockets and padding their profits at the expense of average Americans, and ultimately their country, via empowering China and average Chinese. That many in the US continue going to absurd lengths to cover up this fact at this late hour just shows how corrupted the US has become.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Learn what others have to teach. Combine it with what you already know. Just because you are better does not mean that you cannot learn from those with less mastery than yourself. When Chinese engineers trained in Tsinghua work with Chinese engineers who graduated MIT, you get world-beating technology by no debatable margin as we see in the supercomputer race and most likely in many other areas too sensitive to reveal.

Besides, Tsinghua is hard. It's brutal. They make you push on like a slave building the Pyramids. Lots of kids can't (or don't want to) take it and need the more humanitarian approach offered in Western Universities even if they're not quite up to par with Tsinghua. Also, of the world's top 10 engineering universities, China has 4 and the US has 4. Do you know how many Chinese kids there are? They can't all fit in the 4 at home.
Well said, and I agree with most of it.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
America second? Yes, and China’s lead is only growing

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America second? Yes, and China’s lead is only growing


Among the top 10 schools of engineering, China and the United States now each have four. In STEM subjects (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics), which provide the core competencies driving advances in the fastest-growing sectors of modern economies, China annually graduates four times as many students as the United States (1.3 million vs. 300,000). And in every year of the Obama administration, Chinese universities awarded more PhDs in STEM fields than American universities.


Trap?”

I am not surprise at all This is going to happened sooner or latter But what surprise me is the speed with which China eclipse US in STEM

Due to short nearsightedness of socalled bottom line management there is no job security in STEM. The first thing that got chop of when thing goes bad is engineering.

The news travel fast which discourage the best and brightest into STEM for more lucrative and stable job in Health care or Finance.As well those rich endowment and research grant is getting less and less channel to STEM

This problem was paper over for a while by influx of foreign graduate student But now those talented Chinese or Indian.are going back and with difficulty in getting H1B visa the door is closed

So it will be downhill from now on
 
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Blackstone

Brigadier
Looks like betting against China's 2016 and 2017 economic performance was a very bad idea.

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A hedge fund at
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that has bet against the Chinese economy sunk about 62 percent this year through April.

The Nexus fund dropped 8.2 percent last month, according to an email to investors seen by Bloomberg News. The April results mark at least the third consecutive month of negative returns for the fund.

China bears have suffered as economic growth accelerated in the first quarter and officials have been guiding the yuan higher against the dollar in a move that’s caught market watchers by surprise. The Nexus fund gained 35 percent in 2015, profiting from moves by China’s central bank to devalue the yuan by the most since 1994. But the fund has underpeformed since 2016 when it dropped 15.5 percent, Bloomberg has
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.

ESG is run by co-founders Kevin Kenny, Mete Tuncel and Jason Kirschner, who bought out Carlyle Group LP’s 55 percent stake and took full control of the firm in October. Most of the assets at ESG, which managed $3.5 billion as of December, are in two of its other funds.

A spokesman for New York-based ESG, which started in 2002 with seed capital from Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management, declined to comment.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Bad news for china. Moodys has downgraded china´s credit rating, for the first time since 1989. Could this be really a signal for what´s ahead?

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If China's economy could be accurately assessed and predicted by Western traditional indicators, China should have collapsed long ago. The credibility of Western institutions in assessing China's economy is so poor historically, I literally don't even pay attention to this.
 
now I read
China's debt risk "controllable": NDRC
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Xinhua| 2017-05-24 23:07:10

China's economic planning agency said on Wednesday that the country's debt risk is "controllable" and companies will be in a better position to repay debt with increased profit margins.

China's leverage ratio stood at 255.6 percent at the end of the third quarter of 2016, lower than the average of major developed countries, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement, citing data released by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

As of the end of the third quarter of 2016, the increase of leverage ratio moderated by 2.5 percentage points in comparison with the same period in 2015, declining for the second quarter.

The agency also underlined corporate debt. With structural reform underway and companies increasing their profit margins, they will be in a stronger position to repay debt.

With the backing of a high saving rate, China is unlikely to be hit by systemic financial risks, said the statement.

NDRC released the statement after international rating agency Moody's downgraded China's long-term local currency and foreign currency issuer ratings to A1 from Aa3 and changed the outlook to stable from negative.

The rating agency attributed the decision to expectations that China's economy-wide leverage would increase further over the coming years, planned reform would likely slow and not prevent a rise in leverage. Sustained policy stimulus would cause rising debt across the economy.

NDRC reiterated that China is deleveraging its economy in a proactive and stable manner. It is a strategic decision, as well as a key task of supply-side economic reform. A host of measures have been put into place, yielding positive results.
 

Yvrch

Junior Member
Registered Member
Bad news for china. Moodys has downgraded china´s credit rating, for the first time since 1989. Could this be really a signal for what´s ahead?

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That makes as much sense as a healthy McDonald breakfast.

Fixed income is based on expected inflation, not on Moody's rating, which in itself has a big lemon rating if we can still remember 2008 when these guys laughed all the way to the banks when the US crumbled.

And it is a rating on sovereign bonds, or Chinese government borrowings overseas, while their concerns are on domestic debts level, which is like Chinese government owes money to itself. So how weird is the reasoning that downgrading Chinese government overseas bonds one notch down, which are puny even compared to short term corporate trade payables and receivables, let alone overall size of China's growing outgoing loans, not borrowing - going the opposite way Moody's is rating on - through OBOR and AIIB, would have any effect on Chinese domestic debt level ?

China is a net credit exporter, not net borrower.
Given the size of China's GDP, government borrowing overseas is quite negligible.

Some highfalutin sound and fury show is going on here.
 
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