American Economics Thread
- Thread starter Bernard
- Start date
Investing in the real US economy is less attractive because politics has fallen into the hands of special interest groups. See: Bas van Bavel - The Invisible Hand? for comparable developments in Iraq in the eight and ninth centuries, North and Middle Italy in the Late Middle Ages, the Netherlands in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries.
Therefore there is less need for research and development except for military technology and only as long as US can pay for it.
Therefore there is less need for research and development except for military technology and only as long as US can pay for it.
Blackstone
Brigadier
Some really good numbers for the economy, and Trump deserves credit. Going forward, however, there must be focus on the roughly 94 million people currently out of the workforce. Candidate Trump made a big deal out of that, but President Trump has been relatively muted. Time isn't on America's side in the issue, because Baby Boomers are retiring in droves, and the ratio of workers putting into the social care and security systems vs. people taking out of them is dropping. Things can't continue as it indefinitely.
Blackstone
Brigadier
I have some time so let's think about this for a moment.
In this supposedly Barron to Cohn transition period, all kinds of tension will inevitably surface, behind the door or in public, in both national and international agendas.
Ross and Mnuchin together called Wang Yang last week. So apparently some give and take are already in play.
Despite Trump's inexperience in policy matters and finer details of governing, there nevertheless is the truth about trade deficits. You can run up fiscal deficits at a steady pace indefinitely, within a reasonable bound of a given gdp growth and inflation. But you can't forever run up trade deficits, as more foreign claims on your gdp pile up and you will end up with ever shrinking portion of gdp for your own. On the other hand, domestic debt are taxable, mostly, and interest payment goes to the grandchildren, so it is more or less in a closed loop, transferring investment money to later generations.
This administration has tons of trade tensions with many trading partners as of now, not just China. Korea, Germany, UK, Japan, Mexico, Canada. You name a country and it is probably in the list.
Will these countries budge to Commerce Dept. pressure? It will be a mixed bag at best. They will make some concessions but definitely not all. They will in turn demand US what makes sense for them.
Of course this administration will claim victory over smallest concessions for the optics and sound bite but it will still be some time for this administration to have a coherent clear strategy with a full team in place.
Trump has shown himself to be a paper tiger. He made threats that he never delivers: NAFTA, border wall, the list goes on. Chinese interlocutors told Trump team not to call Xi on weekly basis regarding North Korea as Xi was unhappy about being treated like a junior official. Don't call me for weekly updates, piss off. LoL.
Obviously, phone went silent.
So can they change China's coherent strategy? Bits and pieces yes. A few percentage points here and there, but not likely any substance.
Bits and pieces, but no substance.
Don the paper tiger, the empty suit.
U.S. Strikes China Trade Deals but Leaves Major Issues Untouched
By MAY 11, 2017
Share This Page
Photo
A poultry farm in Shandong Province, China, in February. The United States is set to allow Chinese to export cooked poultry products. Credit Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
BEIJING — The United States has reached a set of narrow trade deals with China covering areas like electronic payment services, beef and poultry, Trump administration officials said, leaving untouched bigger issues that could still complicate relations between the two major trading partners.
The disclosure of the deals on Thursday evening — which included an announcement that the United States would be represented at a forum in Beijing devoted to President ’s ambitious One Belt, One Road international investment initiative — suggests that the Trump administration is trying to smooth relations with Beijing despite President Trump’s harsh anti-China language on the campaign trail.
Under the newly announced deals, China set a deadline for fulfilling its promises to allow American beef, and said it would speed up considerations of pending American applications to offer bioengineered seeds in China. It will also allow foreign-owned firms to provide credit-rating services in China, issue guidelines to let American firms offer electronic payment services there, and issue licenses to two American financial institutions to underwrite bonds.
The United States, in turn, will allow Chinese to export cooked poultry products. American officials also said that Matthew Pottinger, , would travel to Beijing with one or more Commerce Department officials for this weekend’s event.
Sending a delegation recognizes the importance of President Xi’s signature foreign policy to build China’s economic, financial and political ties across Asia, the Mideast, Eastern Europe and eastern Africa.
The trade agreements did not address areas such as steel, aluminum or auto parts — areas where Chinese exports have a deep, industrywide impact. Mr. Trump criticized China’s trade practices both before and after the election, saying China was benefiting at the expense of American workers.
The Trump administration has since moderated its language, with Mr. Trump suggesting that China could strike better trade terms the United States contain North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.
Chinese officials here had no immediate comment.
Many of these deals were expected. Trade officials in both countries had said they expected a deal on American beef exports, which China has limited for more than a decade over worries about .
Still, while narrow, a number of the agreements announced on Thursday represent a further reversal of American foreign policy from the Obama administration.
The Obama administration long refused to allow Chinese poultry imports, as the Agriculture Department had broad safety concerns about it, including the chemicals the animals are fed and the hygiene at farms and slaughterhouses. and bird flu are also widespread problems in China, although the germs that cause them should be killed if poultry is properly cooked.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross praised the deals for providing specific dates for China to act on trade pledges that it has made repeatedly but not fulfilled.
He predicted that Trump administration policies would start to narrow the United States trade deficit with China, which is equal to more than half of the nation’s overall trade deficit.
“By the latter part of the year,” he said, “you should see something.”
Mr. Ross and his negotiators were not able to obtain a deadline for when China would issue approvals for eight kinds of American seeds that have been bioengineered to produce hardier and more productive crops.
On electronic payment services, which have become a popular alternative to cash in China, both sides appeared to make compromises. The Chinese side finally set a date, July 16, for allowing foreign providers of these services b
ut \ would issue further guidelines \ for how they could be offered in China. The Obama administration had said China should allow foreign electronic payment services without issuing further guidelines. The United States had already fought and won a World Trade Organization case against China over payment processing.
In another American concession, the Trump administration agreed that it would not restrict United States exports of liquefied to China, though they would still be subject to an overall daily cap. Some American manufacturers, particularly in the energy-hungry chemicals industry, fear China might buy so much American natural gas that the purchases would push up American natural gas prices. The first shipment of American liquefied natural gas to China arrived in southern China’s Guangdong province last August.
On credit-rating services, Joerg Wuttke, the president of the European Chamber of Commerce in China, said on Tuesday in Shanghai that foreign companies were increasingly concerned about such services that are being developed within China. These services appear likely to measure the extent to which companies as well as individuals meet the social and political goals of the Chinese state, he said, and not just whether companies and individuals pay their bills on time.
Jeremie Waterman, the executive director for greater China at the United States Chamber of Commerce, cautiously welcomed the trade deals, while noting that he did not yet have the details. “The administration deserves credit for hopefully ensuring full and timely implementation of commitments China has already made in the areas of beef, biotech, and electronic payments,” he said.
Don the paper tiger, the empty suit.
U.S. Strikes China Trade Deals but Leaves Major Issues Untouched
By MAY 11, 2017
Share This Page
Photo
A poultry farm in Shandong Province, China, in February. The United States is set to allow Chinese to export cooked poultry products. Credit Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
BEIJING — The United States has reached a set of narrow trade deals with China covering areas like electronic payment services, beef and poultry, Trump administration officials said, leaving untouched bigger issues that could still complicate relations between the two major trading partners.
The disclosure of the deals on Thursday evening — which included an announcement that the United States would be represented at a forum in Beijing devoted to President ’s ambitious One Belt, One Road international investment initiative — suggests that the Trump administration is trying to smooth relations with Beijing despite President Trump’s harsh anti-China language on the campaign trail.
Under the newly announced deals, China set a deadline for fulfilling its promises to allow American beef, and said it would speed up considerations of pending American applications to offer bioengineered seeds in China. It will also allow foreign-owned firms to provide credit-rating services in China, issue guidelines to let American firms offer electronic payment services there, and issue licenses to two American financial institutions to underwrite bonds.
The United States, in turn, will allow Chinese to export cooked poultry products. American officials also said that Matthew Pottinger, , would travel to Beijing with one or more Commerce Department officials for this weekend’s event.
Sending a delegation recognizes the importance of President Xi’s signature foreign policy to build China’s economic, financial and political ties across Asia, the Mideast, Eastern Europe and eastern Africa.
The trade agreements did not address areas such as steel, aluminum or auto parts — areas where Chinese exports have a deep, industrywide impact. Mr. Trump criticized China’s trade practices both before and after the election, saying China was benefiting at the expense of American workers.
The Trump administration has since moderated its language, with Mr. Trump suggesting that China could strike better trade terms the United States contain North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.
Chinese officials here had no immediate comment.
Many of these deals were expected. Trade officials in both countries had said they expected a deal on American beef exports, which China has limited for more than a decade over worries about .
Still, while narrow, a number of the agreements announced on Thursday represent a further reversal of American foreign policy from the Obama administration.
The Obama administration long refused to allow Chinese poultry imports, as the Agriculture Department had broad safety concerns about it, including the chemicals the animals are fed and the hygiene at farms and slaughterhouses. and bird flu are also widespread problems in China, although the germs that cause them should be killed if poultry is properly cooked.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross praised the deals for providing specific dates for China to act on trade pledges that it has made repeatedly but not fulfilled.
He predicted that Trump administration policies would start to narrow the United States trade deficit with China, which is equal to more than half of the nation’s overall trade deficit.
“By the latter part of the year,” he said, “you should see something.”
Mr. Ross and his negotiators were not able to obtain a deadline for when China would issue approvals for eight kinds of American seeds that have been bioengineered to produce hardier and more productive crops.
On electronic payment services, which have become a popular alternative to cash in China, both sides appeared to make compromises. The Chinese side finally set a date, July 16, for allowing foreign providers of these services b
ut \ would issue further guidelines \ for how they could be offered in China. The Obama administration had said China should allow foreign electronic payment services without issuing further guidelines. The United States had already fought and won a World Trade Organization case against China over payment processing.
In another American concession, the Trump administration agreed that it would not restrict United States exports of liquefied to China, though they would still be subject to an overall daily cap. Some American manufacturers, particularly in the energy-hungry chemicals industry, fear China might buy so much American natural gas that the purchases would push up American natural gas prices. The first shipment of American liquefied natural gas to China arrived in southern China’s Guangdong province last August.
On credit-rating services, Joerg Wuttke, the president of the European Chamber of Commerce in China, said on Tuesday in Shanghai that foreign companies were increasingly concerned about such services that are being developed within China. These services appear likely to measure the extent to which companies as well as individuals meet the social and political goals of the Chinese state, he said, and not just whether companies and individuals pay their bills on time.
Jeremie Waterman, the executive director for greater China at the United States Chamber of Commerce, cautiously welcomed the trade deals, while noting that he did not yet have the details. “The administration deserves credit for hopefully ensuring full and timely implementation of commitments China has already made in the areas of beef, biotech, and electronic payments,” he said.
In general it's a good thing that the US and China are willing to further engage and work out their differences. However on a personal level I am very worried that the net effect for US consumers will be both worse quality and higher prices with increased food imports from China to the US and food exports from the US to China.
Could be.
Why my Fuji apples taste funny?
Why am I paying the same for a smaller pack size bacon? LoL.
Hopefully, with stronger dollar and cheaper oil, food inflation shouldn't be that much of a worry.