China's strategy in Korean peninsula

bluewater2012

Junior Member
not fully accurate and not super slick, but I couldn't resist

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Rumors are saying the reason for the delayed arrival of the carrier group was because it was instructed to take the longer path around Indonesia rather than take the shorter route inside South China Sea to avoid intimidating China with forces when Xi had agreed to help Trump in pressuring N. Korea.

Also might be related, the timing for Trump to ask S. Korea to pay for the Thaad deployment could give S. Korea an excuse to withdraw Thaad in exchange China helped the U.S. de-nuclearize N. Korea. Take it what you will with these rumors.
 

dingyibvs

Junior Member
The North Korean government collapsing is the best case scenario for the US. They don't have to worry about the fallout from a military conflict. That's why they want China to cut-off the North because a self-imploding collapse is more likely. Whether China cuts-off North Korea or the US exploiting North Korean paranoia to have them cut-off relations by saying China is working with the US, lie or not, works to that end.

A collapsed NK government can very easily give China an opportunity to set up a government more amicable to China, as it's in the best position to do so, and it would not necessarily alter the nuclear trajectory of NK. There really isn't a great scenario for the U.S., which is why successive American governments have done nothing different for many years.

There IS a best case scenario for China though, which is for the U.S. to start the war, get blamed for all the carnage and destruction that would surely ensue, and for China to finish the war and use the gains of the war as well as its ability to rebuild the peninsula to draw SK into its orbit and expel the Americans from the peninsula. It's a risky and costly move, of course. The safest good scenario for China would be for NK to denuclearize and resign itself to be under China's protection, basically becoming a more China-friendly version of its current self.
 

delft

Brigadier
I guess the US will finally start talking to North Korea DIRECTLY after all, but we have to wait and see. Trump have a tendency to tweet something different instead.;)



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Would US be prepared to allow South Korea full indepence and remove their forces from the South so making reunification possible? That would really solve the problems and without the huge damage any war would cause.
 

dingyibvs

Junior Member
Would US be prepared to allow South Korea full indepence and remove their forces from the South so making reunification possible? That would really solve the problems and without the huge damage any war would cause.

While that certainly would be a step toward reunification, I think this offer by Tillerson just the carrot part of the carrot/stick game to obtain an outcome similar to the 2nd scenario I laid out in my last post. The safest outcome for all parties involved would be that scenario--the US would remain in SK while NK would be a more controllable proxy of China's.
 

delft

Brigadier
While that certainly would be a step toward reunification, I think this offer by Tillerson just the carrot part of the carrot/stick game to obtain an outcome similar to the 2nd scenario I laid out in my last post. The safest outcome for all parties involved would be that scenario--the US would remain in SK while NK would be a more controllable proxy of China's.
That's just delay. US should recognize there are three possible futures: Korea remains divided and the North tries to deter US with ICBM's, Korea and environment - perhaps very wide environment - are destroyed by war, and Korean reunification with Korea signing on to NPT. Why should China and NK want NK to become a satellite of China?
 

dingyibvs

Junior Member
Why wouldn't China want a more dependable ally? Korea can remain divided and with the North deterring the US with China.
 

delft

Brigadier
In order to keep Northern Koreans away from 'rotten Capitalism' as the USSR had kept the Central Europe away from 'rotten Capitalism' until the end of 1980s?
China will prefer a friendly reunited Korea because that would provide more military security and more trade.
 
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