China's SCS Strategy Thread

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
I remember when APEC first started, the American negotiator, C. Fred Bergsten, would talk about how Asian countries avoided anything that would provoke China. Which meant if the US wanted to contain China, they would get no support from China's neighbors. But the key word is "provoke." If China was the one provoking, that would get China's neighbors to support the US. Hence why in order to get support for the Pivot to Asia from China's neighbors, Obama gave Exxon, operated then by Rex Tillerson, the present Secretary of State, permission to co-explore disputed waters in the South China Sea defacto declaring those waters belonged to Vietnam. Obama knew China would have to react and thus spin it to be Chinese aggression and that's what plunged the Far East into the worst tensions since the darkest days of the Cold War. You think Obama, who encouraged Syrian rebels to fight promising them with his redline threat to Assad and then to die by backing out when the redline was crossed, would care about starting a war in Asia? Just as long as American lives, aka American voters, weren't at risk, there was nothing that would be seen as crossing the line. But then Asia was expecting the US to do all the work against China that Obama was expecting them to do thus why the Pivot to Asia is in disarray today.

We always hear about American omnipotence but there's a glaring weakness. Americans can't take casualties. Mao said, "One life lost is a great tragedy. A thousand lives lost are only a statistic." If you look at the casualties during the Iraq wars... even though it was slow, even though there were few, Americans will turn on a war when families who lost people start mourning alone and become only a statistic especially since every life lost in the beginning was lionized individually by the media.

If China wants to win a war, don't be the one that starts it and no adversary will ever win against China. They're the ones that wants to change China. They already put themselves in a position where if they don't get what they want or expect, they're the ones that will get angry and try to do something about it. If they start the war, they're already on the losing side no matter how much they can kill and destroy because in the end China will outlast them.
 
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Equation

Lieutenant General
I remember when APEC first started, the American negotiator, C. Fred Bergsten, would talk about how Asian countries avoided anything that would provoke China. Which meant if the US wanted to contain China, they would get no support from China's neighbors. But the key word is "provoke." If China was the one provoking, that would get China's neighbors to support the US. Hence why in order to get support for the Pivot to Asia from China's neighbors, Obama gave Exxon, operated then by Rex Tillerson, the present Secretary of State, permission to co-explore disputed waters in the South China Sea defacto declaring those waters belonged to Vietnam. Obama knew China would have to react and thus spin it to be Chinese aggression and that's what plunged the Far East into the worst tensions since the darkest days of the Cold War. You think Obama, who encouraged Syrian rebels to fight promising them with his redline threat to Assad and then to die by backing out when the redline was crossed, would care about starting a war in Asia? Just as long as American lives, aka American voters, weren't at risk, there was nothing that would be seen as crossing the line. But then Asia was expecting the US to do all the work against China that Obama was expecting them to do thus why the Pivot to Asia is in disarray today.

We always hear about American omnipotence but there's a glaring weakness. Americans can't take casualties. Mao said, "One life lost is a great tragedy. A thousand lives lost are only a statistic." If you look at the casualties during the Iraq wars... even though it was slow, even though there were few, Americans will turn on a war when families who lost people start mourning alone and become only a statistic especially since every life lost in the beginning was lionized individually by the media.

If China wants to win a war, don't be the one that starts it and no adversary will ever win against China. They're the ones that wants to change China. They already put themselves in a position where if they don't get what they want or expect, they're the ones that will get angry and try to do something about it. If they start the war, they're already on the losing side no matter how much they can kill and destroy because in the end China will outlast them.

That is why the Bannon types are so angry and frustrated at China because they couldn't do anything about the current changing of the world and waning of the status quo.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
Carl Vinson strike group is at SCS for a show, China must bring heavy weight ships to match it up; probably 071, follows by a Sovs with its oversized missile tubes and nickname of carrier killer, and 052c/d.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
No worry they are prepping up for any contingencies with retractable roof SAM building. CIWS are also provided close to the building. You also see the direction finder "elephant cage" AKA Wullenweber direction finder pioneer by Telefunken on the last picture
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Recent imagery appears to confirm a February 21 Reuters report that China has nearly completed structures intended to house surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems on its three largest outposts in the Spratly Islands. The deployment of SAM batteries to Fiery Cross, Mischief, and Subi Reefs would be in keeping with China’s efforts to
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throughout the nine-dash line. The new structures can be seen in various stages of construction below.

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Eight of these buildings are being constructed on each of the three outposts. Each measures about 66 feet long and 33 feet wide. Unnamed intelligence officials who spoke to Reuters indicated that the roof of each concrete building is retractable. This could allow transporter-erector-launcher vehicles carrying missiles—like
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on Woody Island—stationed within the structures to fire from inside without exposing themselves.

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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
(cont)
These structures on Fiery Cross, Mischief, and Subi Reefs grant several potential advantages. Unlike the HQ-9s on Woody Island, which are covered only by camouflage netting, those deployed to the Spratlys would enjoy some protection from the elements, especially corrosive seawater. With the roofs closed, the shelters would also conceal launchers from view, thwarting overhead surveillance and preventing adversaries from knowing how many launchers (if any) are present at any given time. Finally, in the event of actual conflict, the structures could withstand indirect strikes or small weapons fire. They are also built very close to the
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AMTI identified in December, providing additional protection.


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advill

Junior Member
The military situation in the SCS looks bleak. US appears determined to make its naval presence felt with constant FON patrols that recently included its aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. China is also preparing to defend its possessions with missile placements etc. ASEAN has a vital mediating role to play, as a catastrophic war/hostilities between US and China can happen, thereby seriously effecting the 10 nations. Hopefully, the wise saying of the Chinese sage Chung Tzu will hopefully resonate in the thinking of the US & China: "We cling to our own point of view, as though everything depended on it. Yet our opinions have no permanence, like autumn and winter, they gradually pass away".
 

weig2000

Captain
The military situation in the SCS looks bleak. US appears determined to make its naval presence felt with constant FON patrols that recently included its aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. China is also preparing to defend its possessions with missile placements etc. ASEAN has a vital mediating role to play, as a catastrophic war/hostilities between US and China can happen, thereby seriously effecting the 10 nations. Hopefully, the wise saying of the Chinese sage Chung Tzu will hopefully resonate in the thinking of the US & China: "We cling to our own point of view, as though everything depended on it. Yet our opinions have no permanence, like autumn and winter, they gradually pass away".

SCS has the potential to become the most dangerous place, where direct military conflicts between the US and China can break out.

This is quite ironic. Among the regional hot spots that could potentially get both China and US involved: Korea Peninsula, ECS, Taiwan and SCS, SCS appeared to be the least likely place. This is where there are multiple claimants and the US does not have a direct stake. Indeed, it declared so that the US does not take side in the disputes and its interest is the peaceful resolution and FON. It did try to stir up the pot, through proxies such as Philippine and Vietnam. Now with pretty much all SEA nations want a more constructive relationship with China and put SCS disputes on the back burner, it's the US now that increasingly jumps to the front and challenges China directly what with all the FON claims. At least in other hot spots, the US is not in the front line. And even these FON and other such claims (such as the $5 trillion commerce through SCS) are getting increasingly far-fetched, the reasons/excuses for the continuing FONs (and potentially even more provocative) operations have become more naked. It's becoming more for the primacy, honor, credibility and containing China. For China, it's equally unlikely to back down under increasingly US challenges and pressure. On the contrary, China will speed up the presence and military preparedness in SCS.

The stakes on both sides are piling up, and it's therefore become quite dangerous. On top of that, you've a quite unpredictable Trump administration.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
SCS has the potential to become the most dangerous place, where direct military conflicts between the US and China can break out.

This is quite ironic. Among the regional hot spots that could potentially get both China and US involved: Korea Peninsula, ECS, Taiwan and SCS, SCS appeared to be the least likely place. This is where there are multiple claimants and the US does not have a direct stake. Indeed, it declared so that the US does not take side in the disputes and its interest is the peaceful resolution and FON. It did try to stir up the pot, through proxies such as Philippine and Vietnam. Now with pretty much all SEA nations want a more constructive relationship with China and put SCS disputes on the back burner, it's the US now that increasingly jumps to the front and challenges China directly what with all the FON claims. At least in other hot spots, the US is not in the front line. And even these FON and other such claims (such as the $5 trillion commerce through SCS) are getting increasingly far-fetched, the reasons/excuses for the continuing FONs (and potentially even more provocative) operations have become more naked. It's becoming more for the primacy, honor, credibility and containing China. For China, it's equally unlikely to back down under increasingly US challenges and pressure. On the contrary, China will speed up the presence and military preparedness in SCS.

The stakes on both sides are piling up, and it's therefore become quite dangerous. On top of that, you've a quite unpredictable Trump administration.
The most dangerous and likely place for conflict between China and US is not in the SCS region but in North Korea. I say that because China's power has established a new equilibrium in the SCS, not only with regional countries, but with the US and its allies too. Yes, US still conducts FONOPs there, and yes there are lots of whining from Japan, Australia, and the rest, but China has increased its strategic hold on the SCS, at everyone else's expense. Consider the following narrative:

  • Philippines unwisely started trouble in Scarborough Shoal, and China responded by pushing Manila out of it entirely. Advantage China
  • US, EU, Japan, Australia, and other claimants strongly objected to Chinese actions. Beijing answered with seven artificial islands. Advantage China
  • Philippines sued in Arbitration Tribunal, and the Debate Club sided with Manila on all major points. US and rest of the West throw rocks from glass houses and demanded Beijing obey debate club ruling; China told them to take a hike. Regional countries heard lots of talk and no actions. Advantage China
  • US conducts FONOPs; China installs defensive weapons on SCS islands. US hints blockade. China installs permanent missile support installations. Advantage China

The result is there's a new equilibrium in the SCS with China incrementally and relentlessly increasing its grip in the region. With overwhelming public sentiment against starting more foreign wars, US could do little more than insist on something they never lost: Freedom of the Seas.

North Korea is an entirely different affair and probably the most dangerous flashpoint between US and China. Both camps are held hostage by a tyrant who has cunningly and ruthlessly exploited everyone to stay in power. And now the DPRK has nuclear weapons.

In addition to Kim Jong-un, Donald J. Trump has shown the world his preferred method of action is to talk loud, shoot from the hip, and throw bulls into china shops. Trump is a loose cannon with the arsenal of a superpower, and Kim is nuclear-tipped nitroglycerin with nothing to loose. The situation is chaotic and likely to get worse before it gets better.

On balance, I think SCS is settling into a new equilibrium that favors China, while the Korean Peninsula is the most dangerous flashpoint in the world due to the inability of Washington and Beijing to find an equilibrium. The saddest thing of all is neither US nor China wants trouble, and both have worked hard to avoid it.
 
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