China's SCS Strategy Thread

Blackstone

Brigadier
It's a lot more worrying that a high ranked US government official is now publicly threatening war on behalf of the interests of a private corporation... and nobody seems to be picking that up.
I'm reading different feedback on Tillerson's statement before the Senate committee; one set of Trump insiders say it was just talk to appease the neocons for confirmation purposes, while another says Trump intends to contain China, not only in the SCS, but everywhere. Funny thing is the same new channels carried both sides of the story.

No one knows what Trump will or will not do to contain or to cooperate with China. Things we know from Trump's history is he doesn't shy from confrontations and high risks. He plays to win and was willing to risk all to gain all in his business enterprises. 2017 is shaping up to be an interesting year.
 
It's a lot more worrying that a high ranked US government official is now publicly threatening war on behalf of the interests of a private corporation... and nobody seems to be picking that up.

Actually I posted about that around a week or two ago. Most media coverage of Tillerson's comments as a Secretary of State nominee made minimal or no mention of his past involvement in ExxonMobil deals in disputed SCS areas.

Well, from how Trump treated his imagined conflict with the media, he may not be as sane and as rational as we hoped. I mean, what sane person would declare war on media? What chance does he actually hope of winning such war? The very definition of free press means that the executive branch of the government has no control over the media. The only thing he can do is talk while the media puts him under the powerful microscope and analyze him to death. The moment he does anything, anything concrete, to the media, he will be impeached. Yet, he is still barkin at the media... that definitely brings his sanity into question...

It's worrisome to me, to say the least.

LOL, don't "we" me. I also posted noting caution back when all the talk started about how Trump would be good for US-China relations, either on its own merit or compared to Clinton. Though as of now the jury is still out the signs are not encouraging.
 
I'm reading different feedback on Tillerson's statement before the Senate committee; one set of Trump insiders say it was just talk to appease the neocons for confirmation purposes, while another says Trump intends to contain China, not only in the SCS, but everywhere. Funny thing is the same new channels carried both sides of the story.

No one knows what Trump will or will not do to contain or to cooperate with China. Things we know from Trump's history is he doesn't shy from confrontations and high risks. He plays to win and was willing to risk all to gain all in his business enterprises. 2017 is shaping up to be an interesting year.

That's a sign of good coverage that the channel carried both sides of the story, the funny thing is supposed Trump insiders are either in on the unpredictability or they don't know either. Trump is out to trump!
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Well, from how Trump treated his imagined conflict with the media, he may not be as sane and as rational as we hoped. I mean, what sane person would declare war on media? What chance does he actually hope of winning such war?
I have a different take on Trump's war on the lame stream media, and that is he's crazy alright, but crazy like a fox. I say that because from his perspective, he has little to lose from taking on the Press and much to gain; if you really want to know how hard someone will fight, back him in a corner and give him no room to escape. That's what the MSM and the rest of The Establishment have done, and in response, Trump is waging guerrilla war on them.

What chance does Trump has of winning you ask? I'd say pretty good, because he has the people on his side. As Abe Lincoln once said during the Civil War, “I do the very best I can, I mean to keep going. If the end brings me out all right, then what is said against me won't matter. If I'm wrong, ten angels swearing I was right won't make a difference.”

The very definition of free press means that the executive branch of the government has no control over the media. The only thing he can do is talk while the media puts him under the powerful microscope and analyze him to death. The moment he does anything, anything concrete, to the media, he will be impeached. Yet, he is still barkin at the media... that definitely brings his sanity into question...

It's worrisome to me, to say the least.
Trump hasn't actually done anything to kill Freedom of the Press, as they remain free to print whatever they wish. He is, however, trying to break the Press' monopoly as purveyor of information to the unwashed masses, and in that task he has allies in the American public. I worry about Trump's protectionism and his willingness to take high risks on foreign policy, but I don't worry about him violating Press freedom en masse.

Are you really worried in Trump's sanity, or is it just color?
 

kf6bka

New Member
Registered Member
So what's China's next move? They have issued their statement, do you think that's it or will we see any other measures taken?
 

solarz

Brigadier
I have a different take on Trump's war on the lame stream media, and that is he's crazy alright, but crazy like a fox. I say that because from his perspective, he has little to lose from taking on the Press and much to gain; if you really want to know how hard someone will fight, back him in a corner and give him no room to escape. That's what the MSM and the rest of The Establishment have done, and in response, Trump is waging guerrilla war on them.

What chance does Trump has of winning you ask? I'd say pretty good, because he has the people on his side. As Abe Lincoln once said during the Civil War, “I do the very best I can, I mean to keep going. If the end brings me out all right, then what is said against me won't matter. If I'm wrong, ten angels swearing I was right won't make a difference.”


Trump hasn't actually done anything to kill Freedom of the Press, as they remain free to print whatever they wish. He is, however, trying to break the Press' monopoly as purveyor of information to the unwashed masses, and in that task he has allies in the American public. I worry about Trump's protectionism and his willingness to take high risks on foreign policy, but I don't worry about him violating Press freedom en masse.

Are you really worried in Trump's sanity, or is it just color?

What we are seeing is the further hyper-partisanization of the US. We have just gone from CNN vs Fox News to MSM vs one man's Twitter account. Neither are right, but the development shows that the American public has decided that they will only listen to what they want to hear.

In a way, the public has become the Tyrant, and the politicians, the Yes-Men. A schizophrenic, bi-polar tyrant.
 

kf6bka

New Member
Registered Member
I believe we will see an accelerated and expanded militarization of the islands.

That's kind of my thinking too since there is a credible threat now it gives justification to those actions. What do you think on an ADIZ?
 

solarz

Brigadier
That's kind of my thinking too since there is a credible threat now it gives justification to those actions. What do you think on an ADIZ?

Six months ago, I would have said no, as it would have been unnecessarily provocative. Now, however, I think that would be a good response to the Trump administrations comments.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
This news from RT quoting global times said that China just deploy 2nd brigade of DF41 in Heilongjiang next to Russian border.
Assuming that each of the brigade consists of 12 launcher and mirved with 5 warhead we have 12X2X5=120.warhead

Now counting the JL2 each with 3 warhead. We know they have 4 type 94 sub each with 12 missile silo = 4X3X12=144 warhead

Add the mirved DF5 be on the low side say 30 DF5= 30X5=150 warhead .

Just off the bat 150+120+144 Total= 314 warhead

This just show the much quoted 230 warhead is certainly out of the whack
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Beijing has deployed advanced Dongfeng-41 ICBMs in Heilongjiang Province, which borders Russia, according to reports based on images, possibly leaked to coincide with Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president.
“Pictures of China's Dongfeng-41 ballistic missile were exposed on Chinese mainland websites,” the Global Times said citing reports in “some Hong Kong and Taiwan media.” Russian news agencies identified one of them as the Apple Daily, a Hong Kong-based tabloid-style resource.

“It was revealed that the pictures were taken in Heilongjiang Province. Military analysts believe that this is perhaps the second Dongfeng-41 strategic missile brigade and it should be deployed in northeastern China,” the
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in the Chinese daily adds. The Global Times works under the auspices of the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, though the former tends to be more controversial.

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The DF-41 is a three-stage solid-propellant missile, which is estimated to have a range of up to 15,000km and be capable of delivering up to 10 MIRVed nuclear warheads. China is yet to show the ICBM to the general public during a military parade or any similar event. Most information of the advanced weapon remains highly classified.

There is speculation that China plans to deploy at least three brigades of DF-41s throughout the country. The image leak may have been timed with Trump’s inauguration, with the new president expected to take a confrontational stance towards China, according to the Global Times’ report.


Before taking office he angered Beijing by threatening to end the ‘One China policy’, which acknowledges continental China as the only Chinese nation and rejects Taiwan’s claim to be one. He also said he would pressure Beijing on economic issues like its monetary policy and trade barriers.

China routinely uses demonstration of its military prowess to send signals to challengers like the US. For instance, it tested a railcar-launched version of the DF-41 in December 2016 just as then-Defense Secretary Ashton Carter visited the aircraft carrier ‘USS John C. Stennis’ deployed in the South China Sea.

The alleged deployment of the DF-41 near Russia’s border should not be read as a threat to Russia, military analyst Konstantin Sivkov told RIA Novosti.

“DF-41 missiles placed near Russia’s border are a smaller threat than if they were placed deeper in the Chinese territory. Such missiles usually have a very large ‘dead zone’ [area within minimal range that cannot be attacked by a weapon],” he said, adding that the ICBMs would not be able to target Russia’s Far East and most of Eastern Siberia from the Heilongjiang Province.

The Kremlin agreed with the assessment, saying that China is Russia’s “strategic partner in political and economic senses.”

“Certainly, the actions of the Chinese military, if the reports prove correct, the military build-up in China is not perceived as a threat to our country,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

Here is the original article from global times
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Dongfeng-41 will bring China more respect
Source:Global Times Published: 2017/1/23 23:28:39
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. They think this is Beijing's response to Trump's provocative remarks on China.

Before Trump took power, his team showed a tough stance toward China, and in turn, Beijing will ready itself for pressures imposed by the new US government. It is logical that Beijing attaches particular importance to the Dongfeng-41 as a strategic deterrence tool. With China's rise, China's strategic risks are growing. China bears the heavy task of safeguarding national security. Nuclear deterrence is the foundation of China's national security, which must be consolidated with the rising strategic risks.

The US has the world's most powerful military strength, including the most advanced and powerful nuclear arsenal. But Trump has called for a nuclear arms build-up many times. Even Washington feels that its naval forces and nuclear strength are lacking, so how can China be content with its current nuclear strength when it is viewed by the US as its biggest potential opponent?

China's nuclear capability should be so strong that no country would dare launch a military showdown with China under any circumstance, and such that China can strike back against those militarily provoking it. A military clash with the US is the last thing China wants, but China's nuclear arsenal must be able to deter the US.

The US has not paid enough respect to China's military. Senior US officials of the Asia-Pacific command frequently show their intention to flex their muscles with arrogance. The Trump team also took a flippant attitude toward China's core interests after Trump's election win. Enhancing communication and mutual understanding is not enough. China must procure a level of strategic military strength that will force the US to respect it.

A China with or without the Dongfeng-41 is different to the outside world. That is the significance of the Dongfeng-41. We hope this strategic edge will be revealed officially soon. It will not bring the China Threat theory, but will only add authority to the People's Liberation Army.
 
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