China's SCS Strategy Thread

Ultra

Ultra

Junior Member
tidalwave said:
China needs to setup one carrier strike group in Hainan and another one in Paracel.

When US ship coming to Woody island to do FON, it will surrounded by the carrier fleet and it will make it look punny and weak, like a lion walk into and surrounded by a herd of adult elephants.

It will look Funny.
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What China need is to build up its "nuclear strike fleet" and do regular NEAR SHORE patrol on USA claiming FON as passage to visit to Cuba or Venezuela or any friendly nations in American continent.

The nuclear strike fleet will consist of 052Ds (or any sea-going ships) with vertical launched surface to surface nuclear capable hypersonic missiles (VLS SSM HGV) that are impossible to intercept and couple with near shore patrol it will give Americans a taste of its own medicine.

If you don't do a tit for tat the americans are not going to respect you. They will just continue to trample all over you. This is why they believe South China is is part of their playground. You don't see American pull that kind of stunt near Russian shore.
 
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solarz

solarz

Brigadier
Ultra said:
What China need is to build up its "nuclear strike fleet" and do regular NEAR SHORE patrol on USA claiming FON as passage to visit to Cuba or Venezuela or any friendly nations in American continent.

The nuclear strike fleet will consist of 052Ds (or any sea-going ships) with vertical launched surface to surface nuclear capable hypersonic missiles (VLS SSM HGV) that are impossible to intercept and couple with near shore patrol it will give Americans a taste of its own medicine.

If you don't do a tit for tat the americans are not going to respect you. They will just continue to trample all over you. This is why they believe South China is is part of their playground. You don't see American pull that kind of stunt near Russian shore.
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This possibility is exactly the reason the US set up the "first island chain", to make it as difficult as possible for China to conduct long range naval operations near the US mainland.

While the Chinese navy has been making huge strides, it is not yet ready to challenge the USN on its strong points. The US has had decades to turn the entire Pacific Ocean into its buffer zone.

For now, dismantling the first island chain remains the goal.
 
P

PanAsian

Major
Blackstone said:
It is current international norm, and reason say status quo rules until it is successfully challenged and a new status quo established. All the shouting we hear from Beijing are attempts to change the rules for itself. Time will tell which camp wins the argument.
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That is and has always been a practice challenged by many countries in addition to China, by no means is it a norm. The only reason the practice continues is because it is carried out by countries with dominant military power.
 
Blackstone

Blackstone

Brigadier
PanAsian said:
That is and has always been a practice challenged by many countries in addition to China, by no means is it a norm. The only reason the practice continues is because it is carried out by countries with dominant military power.
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Surprised? Don't be. Great power politics and law of the jungle go hand in hand, and always will.
 
P

PanAsian

Major
Ultra said:
What China need is to build up its "nuclear strike fleet" and do regular NEAR SHORE patrol on USA claiming FON as passage to visit to Cuba or Venezuela or any friendly nations in American continent.

The nuclear strike fleet will consist of 052Ds (or any sea-going ships) with vertical launched surface to surface nuclear capable hypersonic missiles (VLS SSM HGV) that are impossible to intercept and couple with near shore patrol it will give Americans a taste of its own medicine.

If you don't do a tit for tat the americans are not going to respect you. They will just continue to trample all over you. This is why they believe South China is is part of their playground. You don't see American pull that kind of stunt near Russian shore.
Click to expand...

Actually that is exactly what the US wants because then China will essentially be newly joining the game long established by the colonial powers, among whom the US reigns, that ultimately plays to natural advantages of US geography and normalizes heightened international tensions thereby camouflaging and lending justification for interventionist policies.

China should persevere with its non-interventionist policies including its interpretation of international maritime law with more limitations on military FON that makes up for natural disadvantages of Chinese geography.

The best way for China to break out of the first island chain is to befriend all the countries located along it especially working on reunification with Taiwan which is a core national goal anyways. This may ultimately require China to be able to anchor a regional security arrangement which it is far from able to provide today. The three main challenges are achieving reunification with Taiwan, having North Korea behave, while being able to offer as much security support to the region as the US.
 
I

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
solarz said:
China claims DYT islands as its own. Therefore, when it enters the area, it is asserting a sovereignty claim.

What claim is the US asserting when conducting its FONOP? That these islands belong to no state?

That is a far more troublesome claim than simply claiming sovereignty, as it is effectively saying that the US has the right to determine what is or is not the territory of other nations, even when it has no horse in the race.
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The only reason the US is the only country performing FONOPs against China's SCS claims is that it is the only country capable of doing so against China with a credible ability to militarily back up any attacks against its transiting ships. Were Vietnam, the Phillippines, Malaysia, etc. capable of the same, they would be doing the same. The US has no claim to the SCS, but it has the power to signal to China that it does not agree with China's unilateral claims on the islands. It does not have to assert that the SCS islands belong to no one, only that it disputes China's unilateral takeovers. It also conducts FONOPs against the other claimants who have unilaterally taken over SCS islands as well, such as Vietnam's claims.

That said, let's be perfectly realistic. The US only cares because it is China who is now staking the claims; it was happy to look the other way when Vietnam was island-hopping/claiming in the early 2000s, mainly because Vietnam is a third-rate country with no ability to challenge US dominance in the SCS. China is no Vietnam, and this is what riled up the US into action with its recent FONOPs, which for appearances is also conducted against other countries' claims. It's a game, the New Great Game, so there is no need to get upset about US hypocrisy. China just has to play the game better than the US.

PanAsian said:
Actually that is exactly what the US wants because then China will essentially be newly joining the game long established by the colonial powers, among whom the US reigns, that ultimately plays to natural advantages of US geography and normalizes heightened international tensions thereby camouflaging and lending justification for interventionist policies.

China should persevere with its non-interventionist policies including its interpretation of international maritime law with more limitations on military FON that makes up for natural disadvantages of Chinese geography.

The best way for China to break out of the first island chain is to befriend all the countries located along it especially working on reunification with Taiwan which is a core national goal anyways. This may ultimately require China to be able to anchor a regional security arrangement which it is far from able to provide today. The three main challenges are achieving reunification with Taiwan, having North Korea behave, while being able to offer as much security support to the region as the US.
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Befriending those countries will not be enough; the only sure way is to recover Taiwan. That is the lynchpin for China to be able to definitively break out of the first island chain. Once that island is back under the control of the mainland, the entire Pacific will open up to the PLAN. Until then, every sub that tries to break out will be tracked, and in wartime, sunk.
 
Lethe

Lethe

Captain
Much has been written about Duterte's realignment of Filipino foreign policy, but I have not seen much addressed to the topic of how Beijing should respond to it.

The first point, I think, is one of caution. Based on publicly available sources, it is unclear how stable recent developments are. If Duterte is running a one-man foreign policy agenda, with no significant backing from institutions, political parties, interest groups, and the broader populace, then it could be very unstable indeed, and it would be unwise for Beijing to become too intimately associated with a shift that could very well prove to be ephemeral and blow up in its face.

At the same time, Beijing must recognise the potentially transformative implications of Duterte's shift. The great challenge for China has been the question of how can the nation rise to superpower status without causing undue alarm amongst smaller nations and causing them to band together with the existing hegemon (the United States) in an alliance against it, whilst at the same time protecting and pursuing its legitimate national interests? While events of the last few years have not clearly been disastrous for China in this respect, they have also been a clear step backwards from the pre-2010 era, with clear indications of increasing strategically-oriented "hedging" diplomacy between many interested nations, such as the improving relations between Vietnam and the United States.

Duterte's shift offers Beijing the opportunity to reverse these troubling trends at a stroke. If the Philippines can prosper, and be seen to prosper, through pursuing an "accommodationist" relationship with China, then that will demonstrate to other nations that they need not fear China's increasing power. As such, Beijing should do everything in its power to demonstrate to Duterte, to sceptics within Filipino institutions, to the Filipino people, and to the world that this shift works to the Philippines' benefit. This includes arriving at an acceptable resolution to existing territorial disputes, and could also extend to allowing Beijing to be on the "losing" side of certain commercial or trade activities -- the direct and indirect benefits to China of demonstrating the benign nature of its hegemony would far outweigh any costs that might be incurred in such compromises. In a bygone era, this is how the United States engaged with Japan: it was more important to integrate Japan as a successful nation within the American sphere of influence than it was to worry about e.g. one-sided trade arrangements that favoured Japanese manufacturers.
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
Iron Man said:
The only reason the US is the only country performing FONOPs against China's SCS claims is that it is the only country capable of doing so against China with a credible ability to militarily back up any attacks against its transiting ships. Were Vietnam, the Phillippines, Malaysia, etc. capable of the same, they would be doing the same. The US has no claim to the SCS, but it has the power to signal to China that it does not agree with China's unilateral claims on the islands. It does not have to assert that the SCS islands belong to no one, only that it disputes China's unilateral takeovers. It also conducts FONOPs against the other claimants who have unilaterally taken over SCS islands as well, such as Vietnam's claims.
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Therein lies the problem.

First, let me point out that there is no such thing as "unilateral takeover" of a disputed territory because there is no such thing as "bilateral takeover". This is just a buzz word designed to vilify China for doing what every other nation does in territorial disputes. In territorial disputes, there is only one meaningful distinction: peaceful means or war.

Territorial disputes are between the disputing nations. If those nations are willing, they can invite third parties to mediate or arbitrate. However, third party nations who insert themselves uninvited into the territorial disputes of other nations is extremely troublesome.

There is only one supranational authority in the world, and that is the United Nations. Any country that unilaterally takes on UN-like mandates is working outside of the established order and thus undermining the UN.
 
Blackstone

Blackstone

Brigadier
Saber rattling from Sino neocons.

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BEIJING, Oct. 24 (Xinhua) -- The People's Daily, an official newspaper of the Communist Party of China, has criticized a U.S. warship's intrusion into Chinese territorial waters in the
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, saying such action will only speed up the decline of U.S. influence.

The newspaper on Sunday published an article to denounce USS Decatur's intrusion into Chinese territorial waters near Xisha Islands on Friday.

The Chinese Defense Ministry branded the intrusion as an "illegal and provocative" move. The Chinese Foreign Ministry also urged the
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to stop "irresponsible" and "provocative" actions which go against China's sovereignty and maritime interests.

The U.S. destroyer's move is a serious violation of China's sovereignty and international law. It also disrupted peace, safety and order on the sea, the article said.

The intrusion happened as Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was in China for a visit to China, during which a series of cooperative agreements were signed.

At a time when countries on the South China Sea issue are improving relations, and a proper solution of the issue has shown encouraging momentum, the messing up by a U.S. destroyer has revealed clearly that Washington cannot accept a peaceful and stable South China Sea, the article said.

"The U.S. feels a little anxious over China's sound ties with the
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," Duterte said in Beijing.

U.S. hegemony with provocative actions will only result in the accelerated decline of its global influence, the article read.

Washington will gain influence in the Asia-Pacific only by taking active part in promoting common development in the region, it said. "The outdated hegemonic mentality is not compatible with the regional countries' pursue of peace, cooperation and development."

In recent years, the United States has been messing up in the South China Sea under the excuse of "freedom of navigation." It has also been seeking to sow discord between China and the Philippines.

"Flexing military muscles does not make a country super power, let alone creating discord and muddying waters in the South China Sea," the article said.

The Philippines' choice to adjust its diplomatic policies and reinforce cooperation with China also proves that an unjust cause committed by the U.S. finds little support, it said.

Also, China is determined to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity. "China will ... fight for every inch of its territory within its sovereignty," the article stressed.

It warned that U.S. hegemony will only prompt China to strengthen defense and its resolution to improve capacity to safeguard its own interests.

The Chinese military will safeguard national sovereignty and security by beefing up patrols and optimizing its defensive capabilities. "China will never allow the United States to run amok in the South China Sea, which is a major issue of principle," the article concluded.
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