Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator
- Thread starter RedSky
- Start date
Considering the lack of apparent progress for this bird, PLA top brass might be looking closely at the progressive F-35 induction into the US Armed Forces.
At some point they will need a bird for their CATOBAR carrier and they will need a bird that has VLO features compaired to what J-15 could provide (and it was absolutely not designed to be a Low Observable bird).
With the J-31, I think PLA is going a simpler way to design a cheaper 5th generation aicraft and is trying to avoid issues that are plaguing the F-35. And a majority of these issues are software related, PLA might take its time to design not only an aircraft, but a platform for future air operations where software feature can provide an edge over adverse forces.
And it seems IMHO, that the F-35 workload for software related R&D was massively underestimated, something with several millions lines of code cannot be designed, tested and integrated overnight. And even though, they managed to end up with 3 times the initially planned amount of code ( 24 million vs 8 million).
With increased interconnection between C4ISR system and combat platforms, a great deal of work has to be achieved before having something that is efficient, easy and robust enough to operate.
With this in mind, I dont think PLA is eager to jump into the fray and find itself into an industrial quagmire while trying to develop their main 5th generation fighter. And that is why, appart from J-20 which is a specific case, both PLAAF and PLAN are keeping the 4.5 generation fighter's production lines open.
At some point they will need a bird for their CATOBAR carrier and they will need a bird that has VLO features compaired to what J-15 could provide (and it was absolutely not designed to be a Low Observable bird).
With the J-31, I think PLA is going a simpler way to design a cheaper 5th generation aicraft and is trying to avoid issues that are plaguing the F-35. And a majority of these issues are software related, PLA might take its time to design not only an aircraft, but a platform for future air operations where software feature can provide an edge over adverse forces.
And it seems IMHO, that the F-35 workload for software related R&D was massively underestimated, something with several millions lines of code cannot be designed, tested and integrated overnight. And even though, they managed to end up with 3 times the initially planned amount of code ( 24 million vs 8 million).
With increased interconnection between C4ISR system and combat platforms, a great deal of work has to be achieved before having something that is efficient, easy and robust enough to operate.
With this in mind, I dont think PLA is eager to jump into the fray and find itself into an industrial quagmire while trying to develop their main 5th generation fighter. And that is why, appart from J-20 which is a specific case, both PLAAF and PLAN are keeping the 4.5 generation fighter's production lines open.
vesicles
Colonel
I don't think the PLA is waiting to see the progression of the F-35. Its design has been finalized for some time now. There is simply no point for the PLA to wait and see what happens next. Nothing in terms of the F-35's design will change.
The J-31 is a brand new design. They need multiple airframes to hammer out all the potential issues with its hardware design. Just look at how much the J-20 has changed from 2001.
Usually, software comes after the hardware since the former must compliment the latter. If they are comfortable with the design, they will allow the designing phase to continue. This means we would see multiple prototypes, each with its changes. This is a sign of progress.
To this day, no progress has been seen. And this means the program is gone...
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Both the PLAAF and PLAN have hard passed on the J31.
The PLAAF would rather have more J20s and make up the numbers with J10Cs and J16s etc.
The PLANAF is rumoured to want a carrier capable J20, and will probably get a few regiments of conventional J20s for their land based fighter wings.
The J31 would only make sense if the PLAAF wants to go full stealth like the US, in which case they need a cheaper second tier stealth to make up the numbers.
With the PLAAF showing zero inclination of doing that, there is zero reason for them having the J31 at all.
That's why the PLANAF has always been the J31s last, best hope for a Chinese military order, but with the navy saying 'no' also, the only option left is export.
Even then the odds are against the J31. None of China's traditional fighter clients are going to be able to bankroll co-development of a 5th gen, especially not when the Chinese themselves have been so firm in their rejection of this bird.
The J31 is not going to happen so soon on the back of the J10B/C which is literall a new design even though it is based on the J10A, sort of like the F18A and Superhornet.The PLAAF does not have a bottomless budget and the J10C in its current form is the low of the hi low mix. If anything I would think a six gen. fighter would be develop post 2020 after the J10C and its follow on is no longer viable as a front line fighter.
kwaigonegin
Colonel
I think you're right .. J31 going the way of the dodo which is a shame cause I actually like it but just like most everything else $ talks and BS walks and that bird just wasn't going to attract any buyers. Too $$ and advanced for traditional Chinese clients and too niche for Chinese forces.
PLAAF would be spending their $$$ on J20, J10s and LRSB while PLANAF on J15As?.
Even if I'm usually already more than impatient, I always thought, SAC will likely show the FC-31.V2 at least by late September in order to "celebrate" 4th maiden-flight anniversary.
Given that these rumours are around since - like You say - more than a year and V1 was unveiled on 16. September 2014 followed by a maiden flight on 31. October I'm slowely losing my faith !
Deino
Given that these rumours are around since - like You say - more than a year and V1 was unveiled on 16. September 2014 followed by a maiden flight on 31. October I'm slowely losing my faith !
Deino
I actually think that J-11D/J-16 will form the "low" of the mix in offensive capacity.
Even if I'm usually already more than impatient, I always thought, SAC will likely show the FC-31.V2 at least by late September in order to "celebrate" 4th maiden-flight anniversary.
Given that these rumours are around since - like You say - more than a year and V1 was unveiled on 16. September 2014 followed by a maiden flight on 31. October I'm slowely losing my faith !
Deino
Given that the J-31 was in fact a total surprise, before getting driven around on the back of a flat bed, its still possible that we might see the FC-31 at Zuhai, and the J-31 given another "flight display", but the silence around this project is now as the say? "deafening".
Blackstone
Brigadier
If there's no realistic chances of future sales, then why throw good money after bad?