Yemen Crisis/Conflict & the "Decisive Storm" Coalition

PanAsian said:

Not to mention it might draw the US deeper into the conflict against the Houthis as if the Houthis weren't already fighting an uphill battle. The most plausible explanation is that the Houthis would rather hit a Saudi ship but their crude ad hoc capabilities meant they were just taking pot shots at whatever looked like a warship to their spotter's naked eye. Which also explains why Iran then sent hopelessly outclassed corvettes to the area, as a presence to force the Houthis to stop taking pot shots in case of friendly fire.

Click to expand...

plawolf said:

The C801 is also a fairly old missile, so I doubt it will have that many advanced features like GPS waypoints etc.

Even if they did, those advanced features won't work without the radar and fir control systems from the rest of the warship.

The way the Houthis appears to have used them was to rely on other, non-integrated radar and/or spotters to find a target, and then pretty much blindfire the missile in the direction of the ship and hope the missile seeker locks on.

Click to expand...

In October 2016, Houthi-Saleh forces reportedly launched anti-ship missiles at U.S. Navy vessels on patrol off the coast of Yemen.

Click to expand...

The US plans to halt some arms sales to Saudi Arabia because of the high civilian death toll in the kingdom’s Yemen bombing campaign.

Quoting a US official, Reuters first

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

that "systemic, endemic" problems in Saudi Arabia's targeting drove the US decision, which officials acknowledged Tuesday, to halt a future weapons sale involving precision-guided munitions made by Raytheon.

The contract — to convert dumb bombs into precision-guided munitions that can more accurately hit their targets — is valued at $350 million, according to a report in The New York Times.

"We've decided not to move forward with some foreign military sales cases for air-dropped munitions, PGMs (precision-guided munitions)," the unnamed US official told Reuters. "That's obviously a direct reflection of the concerns that we have about Saudi strikes that have resulted in civilian casualties."

As recently as July, the US State Department approved a possible foreign military sale to the United Arab Emirates for more than 14,000 Raytheon-made Paveway guided bombs and Joint Direct Attack Munition kits worth an estimated $785 million. The UAE had been involved in air operations in Yemen since March.

Since taking office in January 2009, the Obama administration has offered more than $115 billion in weapons to Saudi Arabia in 42 separate deals, more than any US administration in the 71-year history of the US-Saudi relationship, according to a report by the Center for International Policy. Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and General Dynamics are the biggest beneficiaries of these deals.

This week, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said the Obama administration has “long expressed some very significant concerns about the high rate of civilian casualties” in the conflict. While the US has been providing logistics and intelligence aid in the Saudis’ 18-month campaign in Yemen against Houthi rebels, the conflict has claimed 3,700 civilians, according to United Nations data.

State Department spokesman John Kirby confirmed Tuesday that there were “some adjustments made” in US aid to help the kingdom, and that the US would continue to help enhance “the sharing and analysis of threat information so that Saudi Arabia can better defend itself against future cross-border attacks.”

In a signal of the growing concerns on Capitol Hill and strained ties between Washington and Riyadh, the US Senate in September voted on a measure to block the $1.15 billion sale of US tanks to Saudi Arabia, which failed with 27 "yes" votes. One of the co-sponsors of the defeated measure, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., described Saudi Arabia as America’s “frenemy” for its suspected sponsorship of radical Islam.

Another of the co-sponsors, Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said Wednesday that halting the weapons sales to Saudi Arabia was, "the right call," and that the US should go further to stop refueling Saudi planes conducting the airstrikes.

"Any further assistance – including weapons deliveries already in the pipeline – should be conditioned on prioritizing civilian protection and a willingness to compromise in political negotiations to end the war,” Murphy said in a statement.

Though the move to block sales could further stress the US-Saudi relationship before President-elect Donald Trump takes office, military cooperation will remain intact. According to Reuters, the US will keep refueling Saudi-led coalition aircraft involved in the campaign, increase intelligence sharing and not halt all weapons sales.

The worst single event in the war was on Oct. 8, when a double airstrike by a coalition warplane hit a packed funeral hall in the capital Sanaa, killing 140 people, mostly civilians. Though Saudi officials have maintained the overall civilian casualty count has been exaggerated, in this case, the coalition reportedly admitted the strike was carried out in error and has offered compensation.

The US then announced it had been undertaking an interagency review to assess the appropriate level of support to the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen “to ensure it is consistent with our foreign policy goals and values,” a State Department official said. That review involved the Defense Department and other relevant departments and agencies responsible for security assistance programming.

“This review reflects our continued, strong concerns with the flaws in the coalition’s targeting practices and overall prosecution of the air campaign in Yemen,” the official said. “We are also exploring how to refocus training for the Saudi Air Force to address these kinds of issues. We have also undertaken steps to refocus our information sharing and our personnel in Saudi Arabia.”

The US continues to encourage the Saudis to take immediate steps to mitigate against future civilian casualties, including by remediating flaws in its targeting process, the State Department official said, adding: “And we continue to believe that the surest way for the Saudis to protect their border with Yemen is to achieve a comprehensive political settlement of the Yemen conflict.”

Click to expand...

The Hoplite

Iranian PG-7-AT (Nader) RPG-7 projectiles in Yemen
December 15, 2016Afghanistan, Cote d'Ivoire, Fath, Iran, Nader, Nafez, PG-7, PG-7-AT, PG-7-AT-1, RPG-7, Sudan, Syria, Yemen
B. Khab. with Galen Wright

Since early 2016, Yemeni forces belonging to the Aden-based Hadi government have been fighting Houthi militants and other forces loyal to ex-President Saleh in Hajja governorate, one of the few positions in northern Yemen controlled by the Aden-based government. The strategic Midi district has witnessed the fiercest battles ther, and remains largely disputed. On 21 November 2016, Houthi-linked Al Masirah TV ‘s YouTube channel uploaded a video showing arms and munitions allegedly captured in the Midi district from Saudi-backed forces. A still taken from the video shows munitions unlikely to be in service with pro-Hadi forces, however.

Figure 1.1 Still from a video showing arms and munitions allegedly captured in the Midi district from pro-Hadi forces.

Figure 1.1 shows two types of RPG-7 shoulder-fired recoilless weapon: PG-7M type and the Iranian Nader. The former can be recognized by its narrow diameter and visible safety cap, which covers the nose initiating element of a VP-7 type point-impact base-detonating (PIBD) fuze (1st, 3rd, 4th, and 7th projectiles from left). PG-7M pattern munitions are manufactured by Russia and other former-Warsaw Pact countries, and remain widely available within the broader Middle East region.

The remaining three projectiles lack the piezo-electric initiating element described above. Whilst other designs, including the North Korean F-7 HE-FRAG projectile lack this element, the distinctive rounded projectile shape is consistent with the Iranian Nader projectile. Designated the PG-7-AT and also known as Fath in some Iranian sources, this round has not been documented in service with Saudi-backed forces in Yemen. Conversely, the Nader has been documented in service with Houthi forces. Whilst it is feasible that some Nader projectiles were transferred to pro-Hadi forces via battlefield capture, these examples most likely originated with pro-Saleh forces.

9
Figure 1.2 the PG-7-AT projectile, AKA ‘Nader’ or ‘Fath’.

Initially developed by a West German firm for the Shah’s Imperial Armed Forces, Iran later began to manufacture and export the Nader. Examples of the PG-7-AT and its derivatives have been documented in Afghanistan, Côte d’Ivoire, Iraq, Israel/Palestine, Mali, Sudan, Syria, Turkey, and elsewhere (see Figures 2.1 to 2.5, below). This makes the Nader one of the most recognisable Iranian RPG-7 projectiles.

In addition to the basic projectile pictured in Figure 1.2, the Nader is also the basis for a version with improved penetration (known as the ‘Enhanced Nader, ‘Optimized Fath’, or ‘Nafez’) and a tandem variant. Each can be recognized by the lack of a conventional PIBD fuze. Instead, the projectile functions when the inner and outer layers of the nose shield are crushed together upon impact. It is assessed with moderate confidence that production of the basic Nader and Nafez rounds was superseded in the early/mid-2000s. Later Iranian production of RPG-7 projectiles has tended towards copies of conventional Soviet designs. The basic PG-7-AT (Nader) was replaced by a more conventional PG-7 copy known as the PG-7-AT-1 (also known as the Fath in some Iranian sources), while the Nafez designation was retained and applied to a PG-7L copy (see Figure 1.3, below). Similarly, the latest version of the anti-personnel (HE-FRAG) Saegheh projectiles appear to be closer derivatives of the OG-7 series. Each of these later iterations feature PIBD fuzes with initiating elements located at the nose of the munition, typical of RPG-7 projectiles produced globally. As with many Iranian munitions, RPG-7 projectiles have been documented in several colourways, including at least two shades of olive drab, dark green, and at least two shades of tan.
6Figure 1.3 An image taken from a recent Iranian export catalogue, showing the PG-7-AT-1 (AKA ‘Fath’) and Nafez (PG-7L copy).

Iran has been long suspected of providing military assistance to Houthi forces. ARES has previously documented the use of North Korea’s Type 73 GPMG by Houthi forces, and has produced a series of confidential assessments examining other examples indicating probable support. Whilst it remains unclear whether these Nader projectiles are part of a recent delivery by Iran or an extraordinary case of proliferation from another country like Sudan, the presence of these munitions in Yemen is likely to indicate Iranian supply.

Technical Specifications

PG-7-AT (AKA Nader AKA Fath)9
Weight: 2.4 kg
Length: 900 mm
Minimum range: 50 m
Maximum range: 300 m
Maximum velocity: 300 m/s
Fill: RDX
Penetration: 270-300 mm RHAe

Enhanced Nader (AKA Nafez AKA Optimized Fath)7
Weight: 2.65 kg
Length: 1015 mm
Minimum range: 50 m
Maximum range: 500 m
Maximum velocity: 120 m/s
Fill: HMX
Penetration: 500 mm RHAe

Tandem Nader (AKA Tandem Fath)10
Weight: 2.6 kg
Length: 1150 mm
Maximum velocity: 300 m/s
Minimum Range: 50 m
Maximum Range: 300 m
Fill: RDX
Penetration: 270 mm of RHA after ERA.

Technical specifications drawn from Iranian export catalogues.

Special thanks to N.R. Jenzen-Jones, Galen Wright, and a confidential source.

Click to expand...

As the US limits some arms sales to Saudi Arabia, human rights groups present 'overwhelming evidence' pointing back at Washington.

Yemen’s 21-month war has devastated the country and sparked a

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

. The UN recorded 4,014 killed and thousands more injured by Saudi-led coalition air strikes between March 2015 and September 2016, carried out with the backing of the US and UK.

The war has displaced 2.2 million Yemenis, while an additional 180,000 have

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

y (refugees are so desperate, some are

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

). Yemen, already one of the poorest countries in the Middle East, was pulled into this crisis after Houthi rebels ousted President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi in early 2015. Alarmed by the Houthi rebel advances in Yemen, neighboring Saudi Arabia and its allies in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council called for the United Nations to bring an end to

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

(pdf).

The Saudi-led coalition quickly began an extraordinary air campaign, pounding the rebels in Yemen in a desperate bid to reinstate Hadi’s government. Within three months, the Saudi Arabia-led coalition had been accused of

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, including hitting a Médecins Sans Frontières hospital.

That’s a problem for the US and UK, who have been selling weapons to Saudi Arabia. Both countries have signed the

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

(ATT), which prohibits the selling of weapons where it is known that they would be used in war crimes. The UK, which has ratified the ATT, is bound by its rules, while the US cannot undermine its objective as a signatory.

“In total, Human Rights Watch has documented the use of US weapons in 23 apparently unlawful coalition airstrikes,” says Priyanka Motaparthy, a senior emergencies researcher for Human Rights Watch. “That’s quite a significant number.” Motaparthy also slams the British government for ignoring “overwhelming evidence” that there is a high likelihood that UK-made weapons “could be used in unlawful strikes.”

So, what does this “overwhelming evidence” look like?

• On May 2015—two months after the Saudi Arabia coalition begun its campaign—a coalition spokesman announced that the entire city of Saada would be considered a
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
  and told all civilians to leave the province. Human Rights Watch
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
  , arguing it “violated the laws-of-war prohibition against placing civilians at particular risk by treating a number of separate and distinct military objectives as a single military target.”
• In September 2015, a British-made cruise missile was used by the coalition in an attack on a
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
  , which killed at least one civilian, according to Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch.
• Between August and October 2015, Amnesty International found evidence of five unlawful airstrikes
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
  , which killed five civilians and injured at least 14. Amnesty International called on the international community to further investigate these airstrikes
• In October 2015, the Saudi Arabia-led-Coalition
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
  on a Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) hospital, despite having been given the hospital’s coordinates (by August 2016, the coalition would go on to attack no less than
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
  ).
• In November 2015, The International Committee of the Red Cross condemned the
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
  , specifically Al-Thawra hospital, one of the main health care facilities in Taiz.
• According to the UN, nearly three quarters (73%) of
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
  and injuries during the second quarter of 2015 were caused by air strikes by the Saudi Arabia-led coalition.
• In May 2016, Amnesty International found evidence that US and UK
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
  , which release many indiscriminate small bomblets over a wide area, were being used by the Saudi Arabia-led coalition force. The UK is a signatory of the Convention on Cluster Munitions, which prohibits the use, stockpiling, and transfer of cluster bombs. The UK and Saudi Arabia-led coalition first deny the use of cluster munitions, but would later go on to admit cluster munitions
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
  .
• In August 2016, MSF
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
  from six hospitals in north Yemen following the aerial bombing of Abs Hospital.
• In July 2016, a report by Human Rights Watch details 17 apparently
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
  on 13 civilian economic sites, including factories, commercial warehouses, a farm, and two power facilities. These strikes killed 130 civilians and injured 171 more.
• In August 2016, the Saudi-led coalition bombed a potato factory in the capital’s Nahda district,
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
  working there, mostly women.
• In September 2016, the
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
  showed that a third of all Saudi Arabia-led air raids in Yemen hit civilian sites, such as school buildings, hospitals, and mosques.
• In October 2016, the Saudi Arabia-led coalition admitted to
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
  , killing at least 140 people and wounding about 600. The coalition blamed it on “wrong information.”

Over the course of the war, the UK and US have rebuked Saudi Arabia, but last week the US went one step further and announced it was

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

to Saudi Arabia amid concerns over Yemen, with a White House spokesman warning Saudi Arabia that US security co-operation was “not a blank check.” (Saudi Arabia would later try to

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

).

“This is the first time you have US officials saying ‘because of our concerns about the number of civilian deaths, because of our concern about how the targeting practices. We are halting this sale,’” says Motaparthy, “I think that message—even if only one sale was halted—is an important one.”

But the US is continuing to provide a huge package of military equipment, assistance, and advice to the Saudi Arabia, Motaparthy explains. And despite the evidence of the coalition using cluster bombs, the UK reaffirmed its support for Saudi Arabia, insisting the weapons were used against

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

“The US government is the largest arms exporter in the world, so if even it has reservations then you know it’s time to act,” says Andrew Smith, a spokesperson for Campaign Against Arms Trade. “Like the US, the UK has licensed billions of pounds worth of arms to Saudi forces. Like their US counterparts, UK arms companies have fueled and profited from the destruction taking place.”

Click to expand...