South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Guys, this is a South China Sea thread for strategies for non-Chinese nations.

it is not a Taiwan thread.

it is not an East China Se Thread.

Get back on topic and stay away from the lightning arrestors...or lightning will strike.

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ahojunk

Senior Member
From China's perspective - Japan is a trouble-maker, there is a price to pay.
From Japan's perspective - it is trying to get access to naval bases and sell some boats.

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2016-08-12 08:32 | Global Times | Editor: Li Yan

'Tokyo is encouraging Southeast Asian neighbors to confront China'

Japan's real purpose in helping improve Philippine naval forces is to get to use the latter's ports, a maritime expert said, even as Tokyo and the Philippines on Thursday urged China to observe the rule of law in resolving maritime disputes.

Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida's visit to Manila shows that Japan is encouraging the Philippine government to pursue the former administration's policy against China while spreading the misleading message that China has no intention to fix the souring relationship with Japan, experts said.

Kishida met his counterpart Perfecto Yasay in the southern Philippine city of Davao, where both pledged to work closely to boost maritime security while facing separate sea disputes with China, AFP reported.

Kishida is visiting the Philippines to strengthen "friendly ties." During the visit, both sides will discuss both the South and East China sea issues, and the possible sale of Japanese patrol ships to the Philippines, according to the Kyodo News Agency.

Japan appears to be trying to help the Philippines improve its naval forces, but its real purpose is to capitalize on these cooperation programs to use Philippine naval ports, Song Zhongping, a Beijing-based military expert, told the Global Times.

Japan is offering the Philippines patrol ships and P-3C aircraft at a low price or even for free to enhance Manila's maritime defense, Song said.

Lü Yaodong, director of the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stressed that Japan is the most aggressive "trouble maker" by encouraging Southeast Asian countries to confront China, disrupting negotiations between Beijing and Manila, especially as former Philippine president Fidel Ramos meets with contacts from the Chinese side in Hong Kong.

The visit of Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Kong Xuanyou to Japan this month has been suspended due to China's displeasure over Japan's repeated protests against the presence of Chinese vessels around the Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea, the Asahi Shimbun newspaper reported.

A Japanese government source said under such an intense situation, chances of a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at next month's G20 summit in Hangzhou are "collapsing," the Asahi Shimbun reported.

Lü explained that Japan is accusing China of showing no sincerity in maintaining sound bilateral ties, by claiming China is preventing its diplomats from communicating with Japan.
 
Genuine intent or setting China up for the fall?

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WORLD NEWS | Fri Aug 12, 2016 7:02am EDT
Philippines seeks formal talks with China amid South China Sea tension: Ramos

By Venus Wu | HONG KONG
The Philippines wants formal negotiations with China to explore pathways to peace and cooperation, the Southeast Asian nation's special envoy, Fidel Ramos, said on Friday, after a meeting with former Chinese deputy foreign minister Fu Ying.

Ramos was speaking near the end of a trip to Hong Kong undertaken in a bid to rekindle ties with China, which have been soured by a maritime dispute in the South China Sea.

An arbitration court in the Hague ruled on July 12 that China had no historic title over the busy waterway and had breached the Philippines' sovereign rights there. The decision infuriated Beijing, which dismissed the court's authority.

"Informal discussions focused on the need to engage in further talks to build trust and confidence to reduce tensions to pave the way for overall cooperation," Ramos and Fu said in a joint statement on Friday.

They added that China welcomed Ramos to visit Beijing as the special envoy of Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte, who took office in June and has signaled a greater willingness to engage with China than his predecessor.

"It's not really a breakthrough in a sense that there is no ice here in Hong Kong to break but the fish we eat... are cooked in delicious recipes," Ramos, who had earlier referred to his visit as a fishing expedition, told reporters.

China claims almost the entire South China Sea, through which more than $5 trillion of trade moves annually. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims in the sea, believed to be rich in energy deposits.

The statement added that both Beijing and Manila would seek to promote fishing cooperation, marine preservation, and tourism but made no specific mention of the South China Sea or the ruling, and did not set a time frame for possible talks.

Ramos said neither side asserted its own sovereignty over disputed areas in the South China Sea, such as the Scarborough Shoal and Mischief Reef.

"There was no discussion on that particular aspect, except to mention equal fishing rights," said Ramos.

The statement said the discussions were held in a private capacity, and Ramos said later other back channel talks with China were underway.

"We hope this type of exchange can assist China and the Philippines in returning to dialogue and improving relations," China's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said in a statement on the ministry's website.

China seized the Scarborough Shoal in 2012, denying Philippine fishermen access, one of the factors that prompted Manila to seek arbitration.

Ramos was president of the Philippines from 1992 to 1998, when China occupied the submerged Mischief Reef.

(Reporting by Venus Wu; Additional reporting by Michael Martina in Beijing; Writing by James Pomfret; Editing by Paul Tait and Christian Schmollinger)
 

ahojunk

Senior Member
Taiwan the unfortunate victim?

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By Chanda JL, Special to The China Post
August 18, 2016, 12:12 am TWN

TAIPEI, Taiwan -- The NATO Association of Canada has said that Taiwan had been victimized by last month's Hague ruling on the South China Sea.

In an article published on the association's website, research analyst David Sutton said that though "The Hague ruling wished to restrict the Asian giant China ... it ended up affecting Taiwan."

Sutton said that the case, which was brought to establish the legal rights of the Philippines in the South China Sea, had harmed an "unrecognized but abiding member" in Taiwan.

The article rebuts the ruling's finding that Taiping should not be classified as an island, which would entitle it to a 200-square-kilometer exclusive economic zone.

Pointing to Article 121 of the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, which defines an island as "a naturally formed area of land, surrounded by water," the article argues that Taiping's status "should not be up for dispute."

Sutton says that Taiwan had maintained a cooperative approach to disputes in the South China Sea, pointing to the Agreement Concerning the Facilitation of Cooperation on Law Enforcement in Fisheries Matters (台菲漁業事務執法合作協定), which was finalized between the Philippines and Taiwan last year. The agreement was prompted by hostilities between the two sides in the SCS that resulted in the death of a Taiwanese fisherman two years ago.

Sutton adds that such agreements showed "Taiwan's commitment to a conciliatory approach to matters of overlapping claims," which he says mitigates "the court's concerns that Taiwan would try to prevent the Philippines access to the region surrounding Taiping Island."

He also states that protecting the claims of Taiwan should be in the interest of all parties who oppose those of China, adding that the Hague ruling's effect on Taiping's island status had challenged the integrity and validity of the international community, of which Taiwan was an active member.

The ruling elicited an angry response from the Taiwanese government — which has usually adopted a cooperative approach — forcing it to stand up for its territorial claims, the report says.
 

ManilaBoy45

Junior Member
PCG Patrol Ship BRP Batangas Re-Supplies Pas-Asa Island

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Supplies have been delivered anew for Air Force and Navy personnel stationed at the disputed Pag-asa Island, as well as to civilians living in the area.According to Cmdr. Armand Balilo, spokesman of the Philippine Coast Guard, the resupply for troops there was conducted on Sunday via BRP Batangas.Balilo said the ship carried supplies "for our fellow Filipinos living" in the island, as well as clothes, rice, canned goods, and other grocery items for Air Force and Navy personnel.The resupply also included drums of gasoline, a boat engine, and gallons of paint. Eight Coast Guard personnel were also sent during the resupply trip to replace eight other officers in the area.BRP Batangas also took to the island officials and employees of Kalayaan town, who are based in Puerto Princesa, Palawan.
 

ManilaBoy45

Junior Member
Japan Delivers 1st-of-10 Patrol Vessels To Philippines

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12:15 PM, August 18, 2016

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Japan has delivered the first of 10 patrol vessels to Philippines as part of the official development assistance loan to help Manila’s maritime capabilities.The 44-meter multi-role patrol vessel will be assigned to the Philippine coast guard. The response vessel has been funded by a $158 million loan from Japan. Philippines is contributing 1.4 billion pesos to the 10-vessel project and is expected to be completed by 2018, Japan Times reported Thursday.Coast guard spokesman Armando Balilo said that, once commissioned, the BRP Tubbataha is likely to be deployed on patrol missions in the West Philippine Sea, the part of the South China Sea where the Philippines claims jurisdiction.




 

SouthernSky

Junior Member
The Philippines have certainly received some extraordinary assistance from overseas donors in recent years. Hamilton class cutters from the US, Balikpapan Landing Craft Heavy from Australia and now patrol vessels from Japan, albeit these come with a price tag.

Given recent events (read political) you have to wonder whether the effort will be worth it.
 

advill

Junior Member
Talks between claimants in the South China Sea should be encouraged, and must be civil without asserting demands by the parties concerned. It would take time for meaningful & skilful diplomatic negotiations to take place. There should be no interference by any outside parties. In the final analysis, not only the claimants should bear in mind that Peace in the South China Sea and the region is at stake if negotiations failed.
 
according to DefenseNews
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What are China’s intentions in the South China Sea? It’s a question intelligence analysts, diplomats and the senior leadership of the United States and its Pacific allies are all asking in the wake of a range of increasingly belligerent and threatening comments and actions by the rising global power.

Perhaps most worrying is that the Kyodo News Agency and other Japanese outlets have reported variations of a story that China’s ambassador to Tokyo Cheng Yonghua said in late June that the Japanese Self Defense Force would “cross a red line” if they took part in Freedom of Navigation operations in the South China Sea. “(China) will not concede on sovereignty issues and is not afraid of military provocations,” Cheng is reported to have told Japanese officials.

Then Chinese military aircraft, including a bomber, penetrated South Korean airspace yesterday. The region includes part of the Chinese ADIZ declared in 2013. South Korea expanded its own ADIZ as a counter to Beijing. No country accepts China’s assertion of the ADIZ.

Chinese-MOD-map-of-Senkaku-Air-Defense-Identification-Zone-ADIZ-142881f5d0c44761980245-300x221.jpg

China’s new “Air Defense Identification Zone,” which covers the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands — called the Diaoyus by China.

Earlier this month, a fleet of 14 government vessels accompanied several hundred fishing vessels into the East China Sea in waters that Japan claims as its Exclusive Economic Zone.

The first sharp bilateral provocation in this pattern came when the Chinese government-owned and operated
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said in an editorial that China should fire on any Australian vessel participating in Freedom of Navigation operations in the South China Sea: “If Australia steps into the South China Sea waters, it will be an ideal target for China to warn and strike.”

But the editorial didn’t just include the threat. The paper went on to describe Australia as “a unique country with an inglorious history. It was at first an offshore prison of the UK and then became its colony, a source of raw materials, overseas market and land of investment. This country was established through uncivilized means, in a process filled with the tears of the aboriginals.”

Are these the signals of a power bent on war? Are these the actions of a surging power, one eager to change the balance of power in the South and East China seas? And how does the United States — the lone power capable of leading a regional military response, should it come to that — react?

This all plainly comes in large part in
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(this links to excellent Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis on global support for China’s position on South China Sea claims) that “there was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights to resources within the sea areas falling within the ‘Nine-Dash Line'” that the Peoples Republic of China claims. China made clear from the beginning it would not accept the tribunal’s ruling and said it would prosecute its claims to the South China Sea.

CSIS-SCS-support-for-China-300x212.jpg

CSIS study results

But the vigorous Chinese reaction is clearly driven by more than this. “Let’s remember that Xi is going to have to replace almost the entire Politburo Standing Committee. We’ve not seen this situation since 1992. What kinds of political pressures does Xi face?” asks Dean Cheng, Chinese military expert at the conservative Heritage Foundation. How much of this action is Xi playing to nationalist elements in China? It’s very difficult to tell so far.

Cheng believes that China, as has Russia, will practice hybrid warfare to push, prod and test the United States and its allies. “I would expect them to be harassed by Chinese fishing boats, to be buzzed by Chinese planes (not necessarily military), to be shadowed and perhaps ‘locked on’ by Chinese coast guard vessels (many of which are cascaded PLA Navy ships). Are WE prepared to be constantly harassed, perhaps ‘bumped’ and collided with?” Cheng wonders.

He thinks it very likely that Chinese fishermen will use rifles to shoot at foreign ships and Chinese fishing boats or coast guard vessels might ram foreign ships or throw themselves in front of them to incite reactions.

Of course, China has not gone that far recently. He points to the fact that the Chinese “haven’t started shooting. All this is making big scary faces to scare people off.”

For that reason — and others — Cheng is critical of the Obama Administration’s response. “What the hell have we done? We’ve done nothing, absolutely nothing. This administration is giving the Chinese a free pass and it’s therefore no surprise the Chinese are pushing hard.”

And no country has the global diplomatic and military muscle to directly counter the PRC. “The Chinese can out-muscle Australia, and they have a decent chance at intimidating the Japanese,” he says.

What has the administration done so far? The US has performed three Innocent Passage FON operations since October last year: the USS Lassen sailed past the Chinese artificial holding on Subi Reef in the Spratlys. The USS Curtis Wilbur sailed within 12 nautical miles of Triton Island in the Paracels chain near Vietnam. And the USS William P. Lawrence came within 12 nautical miles of the Chinese installation on Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratlys.

Also, in early July, the USS Nimitz’s Carrier Strike Group 5 conducted “routine operations” in the South China Sea. “Our forward-deployed ships are operating here to maintain the seas open for all to use,” Rear Adm. John D. Alexander was quoted in a statement at the time. So while not technically a FON op, the intention was clear.

The United States should perform classic Freedom of Navigation operations, with military ships and airplanes sailing and flying through international waters and airspace and challenging Chinese claims to the area, Cheng believes. So far, we have performed what are called Innocent Passage operations. They help maintain and declare the right of all navies to access the waters and islands within the area the Chinese call the Nine Dash Line, but they do not serve the same purpose as a military ship proceeding through the area and launching helicopters, or using targeting radar or performing military drills.

Cheng called on the administration to convey America’s support for international law and the tribunal’s ruling, as well as for its allies, at the G-20 Summit on Sept. 3-4. He called on President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry to raise the issue with China during the summit.

It’s interesting that Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James and Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley are in the Pacific region this week.
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