ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

May 15, 2016
... but I don't have time for Iraq, so ...
... so just this:
Iraqi military starts to retake Fallujah
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

and the detailed map "before":
CjED5xfUYAAqvpJ.jpg:large

(in case it didn't show, you could try this link:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I saw the news a few days ago in IIRC The Washington Post(?) and remember hearing the shooter counting (?). I thought at any rate I heard him say numbers similar to some I know from several Indo-European languages.

I think that was his cameraman/spotter down the countdown.

I think that countdown is the battery/coolant life remaining after the missile was switched live.

Modern MANPADS have a surprisingly short useful opating life after being switched on. That gives you a very short engagement window before the battery goes flat and/or coolants are all expended making the seeker much less reliable.

Having someone else keep count is a good policy to keep the shooter accurately informed of his remaining engagement time while not adding too much mental strain and/or stress to him, or risk having his count compromise by his heightened focus and adrenaline.

What is interesting about that video is how the Super Cobra didn't manage to pop any flares even though crash photos showed it had MAWs installed.

A little less known fact about the SA18 is that it has two engagement modes against fast movers and slow helicopters.

With a fast jet target, the missile takes the traditional direct intercept flight profile.

However, with a slow moving helicopter, the SA18 could use its secondary fire mode, which is actually a little like the LOAL found on some of the most recent AAMs.

Basically, the missile shoots off in a random direction high up into the sky, and then uses its altitude and speed reserves to dive down at its intended target after its engine has such off from a lack of fuel.

That clever bit of design could be why the Super Cobra didn't have any chance.

The random initial trajectory of the missile likely fooled the MAWs and automated self defence suit into dismissing the launched missile as a valid threat. By the time the missile vectored towards the Super Cobra on its attack run, the missile engine had already cut off, so was not hot enough to register as a threat.
 
May 15, 2016
this might be needed if the reports were true of four Russian helicopters destroyed by ISIL at "Tiyas Airbase" below (it's about ten miles from
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
):
I4elB.jpg


I was about to dismiss it, but:
  1. I realized the main road to Homs had been cut around there earlier this week: https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-366#post-398297 and
  2. I looked up what Iranian press had to say:
    Syrian Army, Russian Marines carried out anti-ISIS joint operation near T4 Military Airport
    Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
    which I assume to be as optimistic view as they were able to portray
most recently
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

showed pictures; I took them from the related blog by "Cassad"
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

who also presents the official Russian rejection of veracity of said pictures (it's at
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
my translation of the title: "Defense Ministry Denies Rumours About A Destruction Of Russian Helicopters In Syria"), but suggests the Russian Ministry of Defense to show the footage from that Airbase dispelling what's below:
CjOSLjmWUAEzAjx.jpg

EDIT
oops, now noticed this:
also official, РИА
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
my translation of the title
"Source: Helicopters Damaged At The Base Near Palmyra"

what's the word for it ... backpedaling? :)
 
Last edited:
May 10, 2016
...

pretty much in agreement with the most recent "edmap" (below); from what I figured, there has been some ceasefire (OK a break in fighting) in the Aleppo area lately, likely being used for preparations (but not for the elections delft wants :) for example I repeatedly saw pictures of T-90 tank(s) pulled there ... let's see what happens later in this week
Syria_Battle_for_Southern_Aleppo_May_9.png
two weeks since then, positions pretty much unchanged, at least according to the most recent map (should be "clickable") of Aleppo area I found:
a.png
 
Yesterday at 4:31 PM
today 100+ dead in ISIL bombing of
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

and
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
today's NYT:
Suicide Attacks Hit 2 Syrian Cities in Assad Stronghold, Killing Scores
Two teams of suicide attackers waged coordinated assaults on Monday deep inside Syrian government territory, killing scores of people and piercing a sanctuary for supporters of President
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.

Merely pulling off the bombings was a logistical feat that calls into question the effectiveness of
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
’s defenses. To reach the areas attacked, the jihadists would have had to move large quantities of explosives and a group of militants across more than 30 miles of government-controlled territory without being detected, suggesting a major security breach. Another possibility was that the militants had organized the attacks and built their bombs locally — an even scarier prospect for residents of the area.

The attacks shattered the relative calm in two cities, Jableh and Tartus, both on
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
’s Mediterranean coast, a region where support for Mr. Assad remains strong and where militant attacks and rebel activity have been rare. While the area has a high concentration of Alawites, members of the Muslim sect that has been the base of the Assad family’s power, it also has large populations of Christians and other Muslims.

Mr. Assad has long presented his government as a bulwark against terrorism and chaos. Russia, which backs the president and has supported his troops with airstrikes and other military aid, has a naval base in Tartus and an air base nearby.

Amaq, a news agency associated with the Islamic State, said jihadists from the militant group had carried out the assaults to strike “groupings of Alawites.”

But the attacks, on bus stations and the emergency department of a public hospital, seemed to target civilians in a religiously diverse area whose population has doubled as Syrians from other parts of the country, including areas held by insurgents that are routinely hit with government airstrikes, have sought refuge. The attacks also appeared to reflect the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
as its military fortunes have dimmed.

Having lost significant territory from its self-declared caliphate in Syria and Iraq, it has turned its focus to external expansion while stepping up suicide bombings against civilian targets in places like Baghdad.

A spokesman for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia said on Monday that a recent surge in militant attacks and bombings “once again demonstrates how fragile the situation in Syria is.”

Asked whether Russia would reconsider its decision to scale back its military contingent in Syria, the spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, cited a previous statement by Mr. Putin that Russia’s bases in Syria allowed for “a very flexible approach” to its deployments.

The Syrian state news agency, SANA, and the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, which opposes the government and tracks the conflict from Britain through contacts in Syria, described the attacks as coordinated and intended to maximize civilian casualties.

In Jableh, two blasts struck the bus station, then suicide attackers blew themselves up near an electricity administration building and at the entrance to the emergency department of a hospital.

In Tartus, a car bomb hit the bus station, then two suicide bombers targeted people who had gathered in the aftermath.

Noah Bonsey, a Syria analyst with the International Crisis Group, said the Islamic State appeared to be carrying out such high-profile suicide attacks against government forces and their supporters to show that it was still strong despite territorial losses.

The attacks also seek to incite draconian responses from the government and its militias against Sunni civilians, perpetuating a cycle of radicalization that benefits the jihadists, Mr. Bonsey said.

Late Monday, pro-government militias stormed though camps for the displaced, searching for jihadist supporters, activists said.

SANA said that at least 78 people had been killed in the two attacks. The Observatory reported at least 145 dead and many more wounded.
source:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
(related to so called Kurdish attack of Raqqa
EDIT https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-370#post-399323)
Sunday at 12:07 PM

... and nothing fancy now, since it's all unconfirmed:
oHPNL.jpg
hopefully you can see I "schematically redraw" the most recent "miladvisor" map below, for scale and very basic orientation; the red point is of course Raqqa; "M4" (mid-top) is the main road to Al Bab (I now checked :) and Aleppo; Kurds in
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
; ISIL in
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, with
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
to the west ...

Ci_vh3dWEAAcFsT.jpg
("clickable" version available at:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
)
EDIT oh and I should mention the Kurds allegedly have support of the US airpower (and SF in the area)
now, still not sure about what's going, I watched
  • a combat video purportedly from yesterday, purportedly from the area I marked in yellow below:
    NpEwP.jpg
    (the point would be it's going slowly so far), and
  • also the video below, presumably related:
 
Last edited:

delft

Brigadier
From Al Masdar News:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Rebels given last warning to back away from Nusra: Russian MoD
By
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
- 25/05/2016

The Russian Air Force was expected to resume their large-scale aerial campaign over Syria on Wednesday; however, the Russian Ministry of Defense decided to give the rebel forces one last warning to back away from Jabhat Al-Nusra (Syrian Al-Qaeda group) before they restart their airstrikes.

Russian Minister of Defense, Sergey Shoygu, said on Wednesday morning that the Russian Air Force will strike any force that does not adhere the nationwide ceasefire in Syria; this includes groups that are considered “moderate” by the West.

“We reserve the right to strike any faction that does not adhere to the truce, starting today,” the Russian Minister of Defense stated on Wednesday.

General Shoygu added that Russia will give the rebel groups one last chance to separate themselves Jabhat Al-Nusra and other jihadist groups before they resume their attacks against terrorist groups in Syria.

No timeline was given for these rebel groups to disassociate themselves from Jabhat Al-Nusra and other jihadist factions.
What will now happen to the Congress of Terrorist Organizations?
 
Top