ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

Scratch

Captain
Yet, at this point all the talk about legitimacy in Syria is really far fetched.

It is blatently obvious that Russia is of course not caring at all for the so much vaunted rule of law or legitimacy in international relations when it comes to further their interests. As has already been displayed in other theaters. Russia, partly utilizing brute and indiscriminate force, intents to keep it's sphere of influence by supporting a ruler that happens to be the incumbent.

Compounding the refugee problem is of course a neat side effect, as a few hundred-thousand more refugees along or inside Turkey's border / streaming for Europe may serve the purpose of destabilizing those players to a certain extent.

And from a Russian standpoint, they appear to be smart and successfull. Their aggressive information campaign, displaying themselves as the misunderstood victim and generous reliever, seems to really cath up with people.
By first selectively, and against their own stated intentions, eliminating any opposition to Assad that can muster a hint of legitimacy or who are not crazy fundamentalists, Russia is, smartly, putting the so called West into the corner of having to defeat the last remaining Assad opposition, or be seen as supporting ISIS.

Furthermore, while several (in hindsight) ridiculously looking western views about middle eastern peoples' will / capability to live in "democratic, open, even liberal" societies have been truely shattered, it is an equally rose-coloured dream that five years ago only a few foreign sponsored, die-hard fanatics attacked the common syrien peoples peacefull life, causing a civil war. But that dream, again, seems to have caught on.
There was, obviously, a very wide disconsent in the population. Wich government forces at some point decided to remove with force. Which really didn't go down well. Unfortunately, in those instanes, and regions, the ones you least want to advance are the ones most determined, organized and funded.

Besides all of the above, Turkey, in all of this, appears to follow yet another completely different path then either the Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, Assad axis, or the so called West.
That said, if one actually cares to look for it instead of just listening for the loudest shouting carnival barker, it becomes clear that "western capitals" have repeatedly critiziezed Turkey for attacks on kurdish forces. Most recently Washington just yesterday.
 
Feb 7, 2016
I presume those who follow this Thread know what's so called Rayyan Bulge :) I scrambled its map:
rTvFt.jpg
(Rayyan in mid-bottom) ...
... not that my map mattered, but I can't see marked in it "Jubb al-Kaib", which seems to be an important point in the most recent "edmap":
Syria_Aleppo_AlBab_Kuweires_February_14_1AM.png
anyway,
...

"the lid" now appears to be about three miles wide
it seems "the lid of Rayyan Bulge" is only two miles wide now

interestingly, in its base to the south of Shaykh Ahmad, the Government controlled territory is just that narrow
 

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
Saudi typhoons have arrived in Incirlink air base

Good move by Saudis finally

They need to pull out of Yemen and start focusing on where the problem lies

I hope Saudi conducts strikes and by the deployment and equipment it seems very likely

Let's see what Russia will do, an attack on Saudi Arabia will force all muslims country's to declare a war on Russia so let's see how far Russia is going to go with this

Likewise any attack on Turkey is likely going to force Qatar and UAE into the fight

Turkey has also deployed 14 x F16 near the border more aircraft on CAP
 
I've read both sides occasionally shot over the Syrian-Turkish border lately, seen this:
CbIBJ0-UkAA7BAW.jpg

which purportedly is the Turkish ordre de bataille and while I don't believe it, I post just to express how disturbing the situation is
 

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
Ok more developments

Saudi has sent F15 eagles to Incirlink air base and also cargo plane carrying troops have arrived in Turkey

Erdogan has given permission for Saudi troops to cross Turk-Syria border
 

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
From RT:
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Turkey has become very dangerous.

PKK under Russian air cover took a air base from the rebels this is a threat to turkish national security having Russia so close to its border

That's why Turkey is shelling

Having Russia threaten Turkey is totally unacceptable the air base is 15km From Turkish border

A turkish ground invasion is not far away they need to secure all the border along Turkey and Syria

Western country's know if Russia is not stopped here and now tomorrow another European country will be victim of Russia, but this time it's turkey and they are not a Ukraine
 

delft

Brigadier
Yet, at this point all the talk about legitimacy in Syria is really far fetched.

It is blatently obvious that Russia is of course not caring at all for the so much vaunted rule of law or legitimacy in international relations when it comes to further their interests. As has already been displayed in other theaters. Russia, partly utilizing brute and indiscriminate force, intents to keep it's sphere of influence by supporting a ruler that happens to be the incumbent.

Compounding the refugee problem is of course a neat side effect, as a few hundred-thousand more refugees along or inside Turkey's border / streaming for Europe may serve the purpose of destabilizing those players to a certain extent.

And from a Russian standpoint, they appear to be smart and successfull. Their aggressive information campaign, displaying themselves as the misunderstood victim and generous reliever, seems to really cath up with people.
By first selectively, and against their own stated intentions, eliminating any opposition to Assad that can muster a hint of legitimacy or who are not crazy fundamentalists, Russia is, smartly, putting the so called West into the corner of having to defeat the last remaining Assad opposition, or be seen as supporting ISIS.

Furthermore, while several (in hindsight) ridiculously looking western views about middle eastern peoples' will / capability to live in "democratic, open, even liberal" societies have been truely shattered, it is an equally rose-coloured dream that five years ago only a few foreign sponsored, die-hard fanatics attacked the common syrien peoples peacefull life, causing a civil war. But that dream, again, seems to have caught on.
There was, obviously, a very wide disconsent in the population. Wich government forces at some point decided to remove with force. Which really didn't go down well. Unfortunately, in those instanes, and regions, the ones you least want to advance are the ones most determined, organized and funded.

Besides all of the above, Turkey, in all of this, appears to follow yet another completely different path then either the Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, Assad axis, or the so called West.
That said, if one actually cares to look for it instead of just listening for the loudest shouting carnival barker, it becomes clear that "western capitals" have repeatedly critiziezed Turkey for attacks on kurdish forces. Most recently Washington just yesterday.
Subversion by another state is not allowed according to the Charter of the United Nations.
After succeeding in destroying the Libyan state, with some help from their friends, they thought to do the same to Syria. They saw there a sectarian state like themselves and as Iraq had become under US occupation. They were mistaken. And now after causing the death of more than a quarter of a million Syrians and huge damage their "rebels" are being destroyed by Syria with a little help from its friends. And their helpmate Turkey is now panicking.
 

delft

Brigadier
PKK under Russian air cover took a air base from the rebels this is a threat to turkish national security having Russia so close to its border

That's why Turkey is shelling

Having Russia threaten Turkey is totally unacceptable the air base is 15km From Turkish border

A turkish ground invasion is not far away they need to secure all the border along Turkey and Syria

Western country's know if Russia is not stopped here and now tomorrow another European country will be victim of Russia, but this time it's turkey and they are not a Ukraine
Rubbish. Turkey has the largest army in NATO after US. Using an airbase within easy artillery range of the country you plan to invade and without ground forces to do the invading? What have you been smoking?
 
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