S400 in Syria - tactical and strategic implications

Special forces would not go in the control room and switch off the radar it's a raid

Mujahideen during 1980s in Afghanistan levelled a Soviet Spetsnaz base with a 3 group mortar team in Jalalabad

They had 3 people with 120mm mortars and anyone who knows the 120mm will know it's a devastating round, a single shell could level a large building

Next day a US spy satellite flew overhead and the CIA were astonished to see total destruction nothing but creators remained

These type of operations by special operations teams have worked at Camp Bastion one of the worlds best guarded bases when Taliban knocked out the harriers also in Iraq when insurgents wiped out 4 apaches on the ground many many examples

So it's not beyond belief that the Turkish military planners have factored in taking out the S400 sites with their very capable special forces

S400 is a formidable system but will not change the operations of the Turkey only they will adapt to it

I really do not want to read comments about "Nukes" and "Mass Offensives" between Sovereign States in this thread.

I do however want to read about sensible implications for the operations of all nations and groups in Syria, that the deployment of the S-400 brings about.

The Syrian conflict is a dirty conflict with a very large clandestine component, which will be best understood by leaders with a strong intelligence background. Many things pass across the borders of the region, on the ground and doubtless in the air as well.
The S-400 will shine a very bright light into areas that have until recently been very dark indeed and darkness that some will not wish to see banished.
Just as we are seeing convoys being hit on the ground, near the border area, expect to hear about "Smuggler" Aircraft being illuminated and shot down.
It is incidentally this sort of scenario to which I alluded, when I first mentioned Situational Awareness, just as much as it referred to events between State militaries in border areas.

There is some very direct actions going on the Russian side to show a maximum support for its ally, and to degrade all those who are trying to over throw their ally. This is very understandable, and with the recent shoot down of a Russian aircraft, these systems are sending a very direct message to anyone who thinks of interfering.

beyond that, there is significant G2 collection going on on both sides.

The US has used its stealth aircraft over Syria. It is very clear that the S400 system is going to be honing in on those emissions and any data they can retrieve. This is a huge opportunity for them...if the US continues B-2 or F-22 operations...to be able to see if they can detect them.

At the same time, the US is going to be analyzing the heck out of all of this Russian equipment being used...including any use of the S-400 system. The US and western allies have all sorts of aircraft flying around there...including AWACS and intelligence gathering aircraft.

so both sides know this...and they will both be carefully gathering whatever indfo they can.

I mean how often is it that the west gets an opportunity to observe such operations by the Russian military in actual combat situations so close up?

Answer...very, very rarely.

At the saemt ime...how often does Russia get a chance to have its front line air defense system in a position to watch US stealth aircraft...absolute front line stealth aircraft...operate in close proximity to those systems?

Answer...again, very rarely, if ever, before this.

As I say., both sides know this and they are both going to carefully try and capitalize on their G2 gathering...while trying to limit what they give away.

Very interesting situation from that perspective.

Some very good and interesting points and observations.

So the consensus seems to be that the Russians want the S400 mainly for airspace monitoring and intelligence gathering. That makes a lot of sense.

As Jeff said, the US and other NATO countries are super keen to take a very good look at Russian combat operations in Syria, but lets not forget that the Russians are not the only ones conduction combat air operations in Syria, and I would imagine that the Russians are just as keen to get a good first hand look at US and NATO combat air operations in Syria as well.

I think both the S400 and the Slava Cruiser that were deployed were sent with that as a primary role. Especially since the US has been operating stealth fighters and bombers and probably also UAVs in the region.

I do have some reservations about just how effective the S400 can monitor the Turkish boarder region, because, IIRC, the topography there is quite mountainous, so that will form a natural barrier to ground based radars from the lower plains.

I am also sure the Russians and NATO are, as we speak, playing a very intense game of SIGINT and counter-SIGINT against each other trying to get the other side to let slip some real useable operating frequencies while keeping their own under wraps.

This could potentially be a source of temptation for friction and escalation, as one side or both might start giving the other little provocative nudges to try and get them to react and let something slip. Especially in the hyper-tense climate after the Turkish ambush.

The other obvious reason for the S400 is payback. Lets not flirt around it.

I am fairly confident that if the Turks are foolish enough to send anything over the boarder far enough that the Russians think they can shoot it down while it is still in Syrian territory, they will pull the trigger.

The S400 allows the Russians the option to do this pretty much the entire length of the Syrian-Turkish boarder at very short noticed, without needing to have their own air superiority armed birds nearby or even in the air at the time.

The S400 also allows the Russians to effective take that shot for free (well, not really as they will need to use real war mode frequencies to do that, which NATO will no doubt detect and record), with minimal risk, as sending in a Flanker to do it always runs the risk that the Turks might pull one over the Flanker and shoot it down instead (not that that risk will stop the Russians from trying if given the opportunity, but I just don't think Turkey will give Russia the change to even try that, Flankers are big and easy to keep track off on radar, and there are not that many of them in Syria right now).

S400, another one of those mythical super systems hyped by the Russian sales team, almost in the same league as Su35.
Little is known outside of Russia and always rumored to have made foreign sales, especially to China but never confirmed by facts.
Best for outside observers to just rely on verifiable facts, that is S400 finished dead last in the Turkish competition.
I doubt Turkey or Nato will be losing any sleep with S400 in Syria.
All the intense Russian publicity of S400 being shipped to Syria in just hours after the jet shot down suggests this is mainly a political weapon to soothe Russians rather than an effective weapon of war against Nato.

S400 was never offered to Turkey. Even Russia has reservations about allowing NATO to get their mitts on the very latest and best Russian weapons technology. A version of the S300 was offered instead.

I would also suggest you look up Trial Hammer 05, and the MACE2012 and MACE2014 exercises.

Not a great deal of detail is publically available on these exercises, but what is out there would suggest even early S300s are still very serious systems not to be taken lightly.

plawolf said:

S400 was never offered to Turkey. Even Russia has reservations about allowing NATO to get their mitts on the very latest and best Russian weapons technology. A version of the S300 was offered instead.
.............

Click to expand...

That only further proves that S400 is never really a finished product to be offered for sale, more like some lab experiments at best.
Russia arms industry is desperate for cash. It's ludicrous to enter the bid for the contract only to say they don't trust Turkey with their latest techs. Sounds like the usual Russian excuse to save face from losing.
Notice China, US & Europe didn't have this so called issue with techs. Only concerns were with some tech transfer, not with selling them to Turkey.

Schumacher said:

That only further proves that S400 is never really a finished product to be offered for sale, more like some lab experiments at best.

Click to expand...

That's just nonsense. There is an operationally deployed S400 battery in Syria as we speak, with it in full production.

Russia arms industry is desperate for cash. It's ludicrous to enter the bid for the contract only to say they don't trust Turkey with their latest techs.
Notice China, US & Europe didn't have this so called issue with techs. Only concerns were with some tech transfer, not with selling them to Turkey.

Click to expand...

Do you honestly think anyone was offering their very latest and best systems in that competition? Everyone holds back, just as everyone at that competition were busy working on next gen systems to replace what they were offering.

The only thing anyone could reasonably conclude from the S400 not being offered is that the Russians are more open and/or further along with their next gen SAM development than the others, who have not yet unveiled their next gen systems yet. Although being first to have a next gen systems is not necessarily the same as having the best next gen system.

But even if an export system has the same name and paper specs as what is produced for domestic use, you can still bet that there are significant differences, and that the domestic versions will hold some aces up its sleeves.

That is standard industry practice and common sense.

The only exception to that rule was during the 90s, right after the collapse of the USSR, where Russia really did offer up the crown jewels of its arms industry. As their economy recovered and grew, they have become more and more selective of what they offer for export, bring them back in line with international norms.

The fact is Turkey is a NATO member, so the Russians would have to be fools to offer up their very latest and best technology.

The same would have been true of the Chinese bid. If all past major Chinese arms deals are any indication, it is that the PLA will not authorise something they use to be made available for export unless the next gen replacement is very advanced in its development.

The west loves to bring up Chinese reverse engineering at every opportunity, but the west does that just the same.

If Turkey had bought the HQ9 or S300 from Russia, you can bet that western scientists would start poking around trying to reverse engineer it to figure out all its secrets the first chance they get.

The calculus is that even if the west learns everything there is about the export system, it should still be distinct enough from domestic versions to not compromise the operational effectiveness of those domestic systems too much, and that by the time the west has figure out all of the exported system's secrets and developed counters, the next gen systems should be ready for deployment.

plawolf said:

That's just nonsense. There is an operationally deployed S400 battery in Syria as we speak, with it in full production.

Click to expand...

Correction, there are some SAM batteries in Syria which according to Russia is an operational S400, huge difference to what you said.

plawolf said:

Do you honestly think anyone was offering their very latest and best systems in that competition? Everyone holds back, just as everyone at that competition were busy working on next gen systems to replace what they were offering.

The only thing anyone could reasonably conclude from the S400 not being offered is that the Russians are more open and/or further along with their next gen SAM development than the others, who have not yet unveiled their next gen systems yet. Although being first to have a next gen systems is not necessarily the same as having the best next gen system........

Click to expand...

So everyone offered less than their best & the Russian system ended dead last. Either way, hardly a vote of confidence in Russia's tech in this area isn't it ?
Don't worry though, Russia says S400 is in Syria & more Nato jets are going there by the day with England being the latest & this Syrian saga is far from over.
We should have plenty of opportunities to see how Russian systems, including this so-called S400, perform in real life, not as according to some sales brochures.