ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Blackstone said:
Is Article 5 a suicide pact?
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Of course not.

NATO has to meet and consider any article five request and then the members decide what to do.

In this instance, if Russia responds and if that response is not overwhelmingly disproportionate, NATO will not respond affirmatively to such a request by Turkey.

The force taken by Turkey, IMHO, was disproportionate to what was happening.

Read Turkey's own talk and reasoning when Syria shot down their aircraft back in 2012 (I believe that was the year).

They ended up shooting down two Syrian aircraft in response, indicating that the Syrian downing of their aircraft was wholly wrong because in these situations sometimes stray over other's air space.

That's what they said...and now, they cannot have it both ways.

But what they did not do was go and level an entire Syrian military base over it.
 
Brumby

Brumby

Major
Blackstone said:
Is Article 5 a suicide pact? Can a NATO country take unilateral aggressive actions against another sovereign state and expect NATO to pull its chestnuts out of the fire when the aggrieved party retaliates?
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The nature of Article 5 is to invoke collective defence against a common threat. The way it is written requires Article 4 deliberation among member countries and so Article 5 cannot be automatically assumed. Additionally Article 5 is so loosely worded that the mandated actions of members can mean anything from do nothing to full military assistance. It should also be noted that Article 5 has not seriously been tested other than a consequence of 9/11 but even from that, the US invoked it more for political and legitimacy reasons rather than for direct military assistance.

In the current situation with Turkey, its actions and political motives are highly questionable and unlikely that the other European countries will play along. I think it will be misguided for Turkey to assume it has automatic protection of Article 5. Russia understands the underlying game and will respond in a manner that will isolate Turkey in the process without being pictured as the aggressor.
 
kwaigonegin

kwaigonegin

Colonel
Janiz said:
There's Artcile 5th my hero. I bet you don't know what that's about so I advice you to check it. Sorry for the tone but you should know about that living in a country that's NATO member.
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That's incorrect my friend. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, does state that an attack on one Ally shall be considered an attack on all Allies.
In this case however turkey was the aggressor, not only that article 5 does not necessarily spells out the response of other members. NATO member can invoke article 5 but it is still within the framework of the treaty for other member nations to response as they see fit...meaning it doesn't have to be a military respond. It could be diplomatic as well which in this case most likely will be unless Russia starts rolling tanks into turkey.
Either way it is my opinion that Turkey miscalculated and regardless of their true intention damage has been done and perceptions formed. Russian jets posed no hazard to the security and sovereignty of turkey. It was wrong to shoot that sukhoi down.
The fact that it may have been targeting anti Assad rebels should have no bearing on that decision making UNLESS a treaty or understanding has been signed by both parties which hasn't.
Anti Assad rebels like ISIS are not nation states and they sure as heck are not part of NATO.
 
D

dtulsa

Junior Member
Jeff Head said:
Of course not.

NATO has to meet and consider any article five request and then the members decide what to do.

In this instance, if Russia responds and if that response is not overwhelmingly disproportionate, NATO will not respond affirmatively to such a request by Turkey.

The force taken by Turkey, IMHO, was disproportionate to what was happening.

Read Turkey's own talk and reasoning when Syria shot down their aircraft back in 2012 (I believe that was the year).

They ended up shooting down two Syrian aircraft in response, indicating that the Syrian downing of their aircraft was wholly wrong because in these situations sometimes stray over other's air space.

That's what they said...and now, they cannot have it both ways.

But what they did not do was go and level an entire Syrian military base over it.
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There in lays the danger of this whole conflict Overreaction by one side resulting in overeaction by the other thus bringing about the final battle that is Isis stated goal
 
SampanViking

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
The Cold Fury of Putin today was such that it is impossible for this to be unanswered.

I will then simply expand on what I posted earlier this evening.
There is anti terrorist operation in progress against the Turkman militia, and it is now impossible to paint them as any kind of pro democracy moderates. Anyone that machine guns aircrew on parachutes and then dances around the body shouting Allah Akbar is a Jihadi - period.

This particular front is going to be the main focus for the next few days at least. I can predict very heavy Air Attacks from many aircraft: tactical and strategic, all protected by a goodly number of high end fighters. Given the Russian fatalities, I would not be surprised to see Russian Airborn forces put temporarily on the ground to ensure territory is taken quickly and ruthlessly.

This is of course about face as much as anything else now, and Putin is not about to lose face to Erdogan. The Turkman fighters are about to take very severe punishment and this is a dare to Erdogan to order a further intervention.

If Erdogan takes the bait, then Turkish fighters will most likely be shot down and NATO plunged into a true existential crisis. It Erdogan does nothing, he will lose face and his ambitions and plans in Syria and as a guardian of all the Turkman peoples will be in tatters.
 
SamuraiBlue

SamuraiBlue

Captain
SampanViking said:
The Cold Fury of Putin today was such that it is impossible for this to be unanswered.

I will then simply expand on what I posted earlier this evening.
There is anti terrorist operation in progress against the Turkman militia, and it is now impossible to paint them as any kind of pro democracy moderates. Anyone that machine guns aircrew on parachutes and then dances around the body shouting Allah Akbar is a Jihadi - period.
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Although I don't condone their actions, to them they are just killing the people who are bombing them in which they had not provoked directly. The problem in the middle east is that both Western and Russia had protected ruthless dictators that had killed off moderate Islams making the region a hot spot for these radicals.
Assad needs to start negotiations with the rebels of a reform in government so to clear the way to clean up IS. Putin is certainly not helping the situation that is for sure.
 
D

dtulsa

Junior Member
SamuraiBlue said:
Although I don't condone their actions, to them they are just killing the people who are bombing them in which they had not provoked directly. The problem in the middle east is that both Western and Russia had protected ruthless dictators that had killed off moderate Islams making the region a hot spot for these radicals.
Assad needs to start negotiations with the rebels of a reform in government so to clear the way to clean up IS. Putin is certainly not helping the situation that is for sure.
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The question a lot of us have just who are the moderates at this point
 
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