PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

JayBird said:

Liaoning probably have around 20 J-15s on board right now if the big shrimps are correct. There should be no problem for operations against an enemy like the ISIS if needed.

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Wow! Twenty J-15's?! How reliable is this info? It seems to me that the Liaoning had only about five-six J-15's on board not too long ago...

A little OT, but can someone explain to me what these nicknames for the supposed experts mean? I mean, I have seen "big shrimp", "big cat" and "big whatever..." I kind of guessed that these terms meant experts, but what would the differences be among them? why so many variations?

vesicles said:

Wow! Twenty J-15's?! How reliable is this info? It seems to me that the Liaoning had only about five-six J-15's on board not too long ago...

A little OT, but can someone explain to me what these nicknames for the supposed experts mean? I mean, I have seen "big shrimp", "big cat" and "big whatever..." I kind of guessed that these terms meant experts, but what would the differences be among them? why so many variations?

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Big shrimp is a general term for those who are well respected with high reputation members (Some insiders) in the Chinese forums. Big Cat is just fzgfzy's nick name and no one else because his avatar is a cat.

We've seen at least 14 serial production painted J-15s pics already, it's not a surprise if there are 20 of them with Liaoning right now. It was mention by one of the big shrimp in CJDBY.

JayBird said:

Liaoning probably have around 20 J-15s on board right now if the big shrimps are correct. There should be no problem for operations against an enemy like the ISIS if needed.

But I don't think they can do high intensity and sustained bombing run right now with probably half of the J-15s pilots still relatively new to carrier opeartion. If I remember correctly, someone mention all carrier pilots usually can only do around 3 sorties max per day?

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20 J-15's!!!.. that's a good size force. Any AEW aircraft(helos included) or tankers? What is the ships ability to repair aircraft? aircraft do break.. and with no visible jet shop...What sort of do they have aboard CV-16?...with all this added up. I'd say NO they could not deploy for any prolonged lenght of time if they do not have the proper maintenance and logistical support..

bd popeye said:

20 J-15's!!!.. that's a good size force. Any AEW aircraft(helos included) or tankers? What is the ships ability to repair aircraft? aircraft do break.. and with no visible jet shop...What sort of

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do they have aboard CV-16?...with all this added up. I'd say NO they could not deploy for any prolonged lenght of time if they do not have the proper maintenance and logistical support..

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Liaoning combat operations is far in the future, since PLAN is only in the infant phase of deck aviation development. If for some reason it's pressed into combat tomorrow, my guess is the Liaoning would be more dangerous to her own crew than to enemy targets.

bd popeye said:

20 J-15's!!!.. that's a good size force. Any AEW aircraft(helos included) or tankers? What is the ships ability to repair aircraft? aircraft do break.. and with no visible jet shop...What sort of

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do they have aboard CV-16?...with all this added up. I'd say NO they could not deploy for any prolonged lenght of time if they do not have the proper maintenance and logistical support..

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Correction on the # of serial production J-15 pics we've seen. It's actually 15( From 100-114) This one from huitong. And JFMaverick who is the CJDBY Air Force moderator is the one mentioned 20 J-15s on Liaoning. ( I just noticed CJDBY moderators are all U.S fan boys with names like "Yankee" and JFMaverick. *lol*

I don't doubt the ships ability to repair aircrafts. It would be pretty incompetent if they don't already setup such team to do the task. I agree it's probably still difficult for Liaoning to pull off any prolonged lenght of high intensity operation right now but not because of proper maintenance and logistical support. I think more to do with the inexperience pilots with carrier operations as half of them are only getting their feets wet on Liaoning no matter how much they practiced on simulated carrier. It will take some time but I'm sure they will be ready in another 1-2 years.

JayBird said:

We've seen at least 14 serial production painted J-15s pics already, it's not a surprise if there are 20 of them with Liaoning right now.

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Yes...it would be a big surprise...and hardly credible.

The most ever observed aboard is five at one time.

The most production aircraft observed is fourteen.

To jump from those observed numbers to 20 is simply too fantastic to believe. IMHO, it would be the stuff of fan boy hopes and dreams..

I know of no credible analyst, either in the west or elsewhere, that believes or postulates that China is operating the Liaoning with 20 J-15s aboard.

Now, once she gets completely operational and has a full air wing, she could carry that many.

But during peace time it is much more likely that in peacetime she will operate in with 12 to 18 max.

In a war scenario she would push that up higher.

Jeff Head said:

Yes...it would be a big surprise...and hardly credible.

The most ever observed aboard is five at one time.

The most production aircraft observed is fourteen.

To jump from those observed numbers to 20 is simply too fantastic to believe. IMHO, it would be the stuff of fan boy hopes and dreams..

I know of no credible analyst, either in the west or elsewhere, that believes or postulates that China is operating the Liaoning with 20 J-15s aboard.

Now, once she gets completely operational and has a full air wing, she could carry that many.

But during peace time it is much more likely that in peacetime she will operate in with 12 to 18 max.

In a war scenario she would push that up higher.

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Not sure, isn't the full fighter complement of liaoning/kuzneteov usually cited as 24? I imagine they could increase it further if they choose to forgo some helicopters from its standard complement.

I wouldn't necessarily write off the possibility of liaoning having possibly stationed 20 J-15s at this point on board, but it wouldn't be a standard complement.
So I'd be curious as to just what the original big shrimp statement was and what it actually suggested.

plawolf said:

Well, I don't think anyone would engage in military operations unless its absolutely necessary.

I am asking mainly to see what strategic options Beijing would have if there was a Paris like attack in China and it is traced back to ISIS.

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Maybe it's the old stereotype i have about China but i just can't see China doing what France is going to do against ISIS in Syria. It's just so not their style. Sending a carrier all the way to the middle east to strike enemies, that's too bold for even Xi jinping.

JayBird said:

Liaoning probably have around 20 J-15s on board right now if the big shrimps are correct. There should be no problem for operations against an enemy like the ISIS if needed.

But I don't think they can do high intensity and sustained bombing run right now with probably half of the J-15s pilots still relatively new to carrier opeartion. If I remember correctly, someone mention all carrier pilots usually can only do around 3 sorties max per day?

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Yup I saw that on tv too, they did say only 3 sorties max per pilot per day.

Jeff Head said:

Yes...it would be a big surprise...and hardly credible.

The most ever observed aboard is five at one time.

The most production aircraft observed is fourteen.

To jump from those observed numbers to 20 is simply too fantastic to believe. IMHO, it would be the stuff of fan boy hopes and dreams..

I know of no credible analyst, either in the west or elsewhere, that believes or postulates that China is operating the Liaoning with 20 J-15s aboard.

Now, once she gets completely operational and has a full air wing, she could carry that many.

But during peace time it is much more likely that in peacetime she will operate in with 12 to 18 max.

In a war scenario she would push that up higher.

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I go back to CJDBY forum to re-check what JFMaverick posted the other day on the number of J-15s thread, he actually just said there are 20 J-15s, but he didn't said all of them are on Liaoning carrier at this point. It was just me assuming all the J-15s are on board the Liaoning. My apologies for misquoting JFMaverick.

But we've seen pictures of 15 serial production painted J-15s already, it's not out of question that there are few more J-15s out there that we haven't seen. No pictures doesn't mean is not there, just mean that we haven't seen it in pictures. Same thing with the number of J-15s onboard Liaoning, we've observed five J-15s the most on the flight deck of Liaoning also doesn't necessarily meant there is only five on the carrier, whose to say how many J-15s is in the hangar?