EU Considers Lifting China Arms Embargo

jatt · Dec 13, 2005

Arms embargo stays till consensus in Nepal

Arms embargo stays till consensus in Nepal: Saran

By Sudeshna Sarkar, Kathmandu: India wants peace and economic recovery in Nepal and is keeping arms supplies on hold to foster a "national consensus", visiting Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran said Tuesday while winding up his Kathmandu visit.

Saran met King Gyanendra at the Narayanhity royal palace in the morning followed by a meeting with Nepal's Foreign Minister Ramesh Nath Pandey.

He said in all his meetings he had conveyed Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's message that "the restoration of peace and stability and economic recovery in Nepal is not only in the interest of Nepal but also in India's interest".

"India stands ready to support all efforts aimed at bringing about a peaceful resolution to the problems confronting Nepal," said Saran, a former Indian ambassador to Nepal.

"There can be no peace and economic recovery unless there is a national consensus."

Saran said the king and the political parties have to come together for it to happen. The Indian arms embargo, he said, was to help the process of reconciliation.

Asked about the Chinese government's recent pledge to give 8 million yuan in arms assistance to the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA), the envoy said India was not competing with China over Nepal.

It was not helpful to talk about the Indian card versus the Chinese card, he said, since the two countries were not competing with each other to exert their influence on Nepal.

However, since the international community has taken a position to foster the process of national reconciliation in Nepal, Saran said India hoped that not only China but also other countries would help the process of national reconciliation.

He was referring to the decision take by the US and Britain, following India's arms embargo, to stop lethal supplies to the RNA.

However, Saran added that India's other engagements with the RNA, like providing training, were continuing.

Regarding his long meeting with the king, he said the monarch had expressed his commitment to multiparty democracy and constitutional monarchy.

Regarding the opposition parties' claim that they would guarantee an extension of the Maoist ceasefire if King Gyanendra deferred the civic election called on Feb 8 next year, Saran said it was an issue to be taken up between the monarch and the parties.

Departing for New Delhi Tuesday, Saran said both the king and Manmohan Singh had agreed to remain in touch regularly at different levels in order to consolidate and expand the already wide-ranging relations between India and Nepal.

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Deleted member 675 · Jun 13, 2006

EU-China arms embargo won't be lifted anytime soon

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Britain said on Wednesday it saw little prospect of the
European Union lifting its arms embargo on China in the near future.

Well that's not terribly surprising, is it? To be honest at this rate I think it might not be lifted this decade.

But rather than this turn into a political discussion, I was wondering what you thought China would want to get its hands on if the embargo was lifted tomorrow. I know that it can already get a fair number of things, but there are (obviously) things that are prohibited.

Don't worry about cost too much when answering.

P.S. Does anyone have specific details of what is specifically prohibited by the restrictions? I can't find a copy of its provisions and haven't read them recently.

walter · Jun 13, 2006

Re: EU-China arms embargo won't be lifted anytime soon

FuManChu said:
I was wondering what you thought China would want to get its hands on if the embargo was lifted tomorrow. I know that it can already get a fair number of things, but there are (obviously) things that are prohibited.

Well, the most obvious answer that comes to mind would be C4ISR systems/components with an emphasis on systems integration. Also everything avionics related esp. newest radar tech and other sensor types. I wouldn't expect China to purchase any complete systems like the Tiger attack helo or the Eurofighter--they are really interested in the subsystems and their integration into indigenous airframes etc.

Roger604 · Jun 13, 2006

Re: EU-China arms embargo won't be lifted anytime soon

The Foreign Secretary's statement is pure poppeycock, pure show. Nobody can predict EU politics. Much less EU politics 10 years into the future.

I think the UK is probably the biggest hold out still keeping the embargo alive. That's why the UK Foreign Secretary is making the statement, and not some other country.

But with Blair out and Gordon Brown in, things may change. UK might want to come out of the US shadow. Merkel, too, may come under pressure from her fragile coalition if there is momentum to lift it.

In 10 years, China will have no use for European technology. Having it accelerates modernization, but it is not critical. So the EU defense industry are losing out big time from the embargo. The most important technology China can get from the EU right now is space related technology.

tphuang · Jun 13, 2006

Re: EU-China arms embargo won't be lifted anytime soon

What can China get from the Europeans?
- NH-90 for ASW
- helicopter subsystems and design idea (which it's already getting from Eurocopter)
- sonar and control systems for submarines and ships (which it's already getting from the French)
- engines for the submarines and ships (which it's already getting from the French and German)
- design ideas for submarine, not sure if they will actually be interested in something like Gotland or Scorpene or U-214
- space/satellite technology (which it's already getting from the Galileo project)
- EW/ECM for different platforms
- latest engines for airplanes and fighters (let's face it, they won't get the latest Rolls-Royce engine even if the embargo is lifted and frankly, Snecma is not at the same level as R&R)

As you can see, most of the stuff that it needs, it already has access to them. If this was lifted 10 years ago, it would've had huge effects, but right now, it's more of a political statement. In another 10 years, it would make no difference.

Deleted member 675 · Jun 13, 2006

Re: EU-China arms embargo won't be lifted anytime soon

Roger604 said:
The Foreign Secretary's statement is pure poppeycock, pure show. Nobody can predict EU politics. Much less EU politics 10 years into the future.

Well I don't think China's a very good judge of it, given its overly-optimistic attitude last year. :rofl:

10 years, who knows. But 10 years is not the immediate future.

I think the UK is probably the biggest hold out still keeping the embargo alive. That's why the UK Foreign Secretary is making the statement, and not some other country.

It isn't just the UK. Plenty of other states opposed it even when things were looking like they would be lifted.

But with Blair out and Gordon Brown in, things may change. UK might want to come out of the US shadow. Merkel, too, may come under pressure from her fragile coalition if there is momentum to lift it.

1. Brown is not hostile to the US. Also UK defence business is closely related to the US. The US has already threatened to **** us over if we give stuff on the banned list to China. A couple of sales would be outweighed by what a loss of business and tech transfer from the States would do.

2. Who inside Merkel's coalition is going to press for it? And why are they going to press for it? Not out of desperation for money - the German economy's picking up.

Remember that Chirac'll be out next year. Seriously, don't dispute this, anyone who knows what's going on in France knows that he's off. Royal and Sarkozy are both for better ties with the US.

So both Chirac and Shroeder will be gone - the main proponents behind the lifting of the ban - replaced by more pro-US leaders. Who's going to be left to argue China's case? No one, that's who!

In 10 years, China will have no use for European technology. Having it accelerates modernization, but it is not critical. So the EU defense industry are losing out big time from the embargo.

10 years? Don't know about that. Besides China likes reverse-engineering stuff, so refusing to sell might allow European firms to go to the next level before the Chinese.

no need for foul lanuage. And stay on topic!!
bd popeye moderator

Deleted member 675 · Jun 13, 2006

Re: EU-China arms embargo won't be lifted anytime soon

Just to get back on topic, I think some people are actually missing the point here. Let me ask my questions again.

1 . What is actually prohibited from being sold to China at the moment?
2. What would China like from that prohibited list?

So far only walter has actually tried to answer qn 2. Thanks, Walter.

I do know it's also about face, not just about tech.

coolieno99 · Jun 13, 2006

Re: EU-China arms embargo won't be lifted anytime soon

In my opinion, the most important tactical technology is the AESA radar. Recently France loss Singapore aircraft sales opportunity to the U.S. because its Rafale fighter doesn't have AESA radar. Sweden is suppose to have AESA technology in development but currently none of its planes(Gripen) are equipped with it. Same with Britain. Supposely Russia and China are working together to tried to developed AESA techology on their own. This leaves just 2 countries having operational AESA radars, the U.S. and Japan. The U.S. has been installing AESA radars on its planes in the last couple years. Japan installed AESA radars on its plane(F-2) in the mid-1990's. Likewise the manufacturing tools to make the GaAs MMICs for AESA radars are sourced from U.S. and Japan. If China wish to seek external help in developing AESA radar, it must come from Japan, since the U.S. will never sell this kind of disruptive technology to China. Europe doesn't fit in the picture.:coffee:

isthvan · Jun 14, 2006

Re: EU-China arms embargo won't be lifted anytime soon

Well wile some people think that China has nothing to gain from Europe I believe that China would be more then happy if EU lifts arms embargo…

What could they buy?

Helicopters (EH101 and NH90 are better then any transport or ASW helicopter China has under development not to mention current situation), ship radars and air defenses (Aster 15 and Aster 30 SAM, vertical MICA, Crotale NG etc), C4i systems, UAV technology, submarine technology (sonar, quieting tech, propeller tech, AIP etc.), fighter radars, avionics, portable ATGM tech etc.

Basically they could only gain if embargo is lifted, European defense industry is still one of the best High tech equipment manufacturers and while some people like to underestimate Europe they are capable to produce any high tech weapon system you want…

tphuang · Jun 14, 2006

Re: EU-China arms embargo won't be lifted anytime soon

FuManChu said:
Just to get back on topic, I think some people are actually missing the point here. Let me ask my questions again.

1 . What is actually prohibited from being sold to China at the moment?
2. What would China like from that prohibited list?

So far only walter has actually tried to answer qn 2. Thanks, Walter.

I do know it's also about face, not just about tech.

look, I answered your question plenty. I gave a list of items that I think China would be interested from the Europeans. It just happens that they've already been getting more than half of those from the Europeans even with the embargo on. Now, if you don't have any respect for China's defense industry, that's your own problem.

Basically, it seems like everyone is pretty much listing the same things. That should answer your question.

EU Considers Lifting China Arms Embargo

jatt

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tphuang

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