I piped up about this mainly because others' recent comments are somewhat complaining that there is a lack of info coming out related to the carrier program, but I guess not much is coming out about any PLA program these days.
As opposed to the flourishing amounts of new photos and videos and information that we had in the 2000s? It's basically always been like this. I'll address why there's a perceived lack of photos regarding PLAN carrier development in the last part of this reply
Anyhow I see the points for the carrier program all along and my opinion is obviously against it, for very sound reasons that the PLA has many better things to spend their money on and that a Chinese carrier program will not pay off for a long time. In the meantime if China gets into any hot war, its only carrier proven to exist is indeed not much more than a juicy target to damage morale.
If China gets into a hot war tomorrow then I agree, a carrier will not be very useful.
But if China gets into a hot war five years or ten years from now, then a carrier or two will provide great flexibility and additional safety.
Fifteen or twenty years later, the value only increases. The value increases even more if PLAN fight a limited bombing campaign in against a distant 2nd rate military, say in Africa, possibly to protect investments or cover PLAN ships evacuating PRC citizens.
I don't think any of us know enough about how well the PLAN is funded and how much the carrier program costs to other programs, as well as the industry's ability to produce other programs even with more funding (i.e.: doubling funding for 052D production may not simply equate to doubling of 052D production rate due to a shipyard's capacity)... so we can't say just how much the carrier program is inhibiting other programs and ships.
Also until there is more solid evidence that the carrier program is progressing significantly it's plenty fair for me to postulate why the carrier program might not be progressing, which is just as likely given the lack of information.
I have a few explanations for why we have limited photos and details regarding Liaoning and the indigenous carrier, which are far more likely than the idea that PLAN are reducing their backing of the carrier programme:
1: general high PLA opsec. This is really the most obvious one and applies to all PLA developments as they prefer to keep new capabilities close to the chest most of the time. Sure, new projects might get a big hurray such as commissioning Liaoning or the first flight of Y-20 but once the trials and training begin where important information regarding progress arises, they sure as hell aren't going to let us know, because secrecy is just their nature
2: PLAN have nothing to prove. This is related to point 1. PLA are not Iran or North Korea, they don't have anything to gain by constantly displaying new capabilities or trying to fake new capabilities. So even if they do make substantial improvements in capability chances are we won't see it immediately on video or photos, and they might even deliberately seek to conceal it
3: perceived lack of "new photos". Now that Liaoning is in service, it is difficult for us to get photos of her at sea and the operation on deck compared to when she was at docked at Dalian, where we could get constantly new updates of every new subsystem and addition to the ship as she was fitting out. As an operational ship at sea and returning to military dock, photos are naturally harder to come by.
4: carriers are important. What I mean by this, is that the PLAN recognize not only the symbolism of carriers both domestically and internationally, but also the capability of a carrier regarding its force intentions. The fact that PLAN are keeping 001A under tight wraps for as long as they can is just another additional reason for higher opsec relative to the standard opsec for all other PLA developments.
5: the fact that PLAN have never operated a carrier before. This is probably the most important reason. Over the last few years I've substantially revised the amount of time it will take PLAN to actually be effective in operating a carrier and the speed in which they can do it in. Remember, not only is Liaoning a new, massive combat ship (second only in displacement to a USN CVN) and not only is the J-15 a new aircraft, but all the subsystems aboard Liaoning have also never been tested in a true integrated fashion like this before, from propulsion to sensors and combat management and airwing. The deck crew are also green, without any substantial help from the outside, and basic procedures have to be tried, tested, and changed before they can even be properly implemented as routine training procedures... and that's before even getting together a decently proficient crew that can try to do high pace deck operations. This is occurring at the larger CSG level too where PLAN also have to test and develop a useful means of coordinating their ships and helicopters as a credible escort force that can operate effectively with a CSG and its airwing. So therefore it should come as no surprise that whatever pace they're developing at (even accounting for PLAN opsec and deliberate blackout on most information related to their carriers)
6: standard hurdles in operating a new vessel and its associated subsystems. Basically technical, operational issues. We shouldn't be surprised if challenges are experienced and time is needed to troubleshoot and solve them.
These are all IMO valid and likely reasons for why PLAN carrier program is both appearing to progress slowly (via lack of photos and info they release to us) and likely why the PLAN carrier program is actually moving slower than some of us would like (operating a new ship, ship type, airwing, crew, means it's ridiculous to expect USN style deck operations... even now, nearly three years after CV16's commissioning, when we consider how much previous experience and help PLAN has had with operating a carrier)
However I think it is a definite irrational jump to believe that the lack of new photos and information means there is some kind of lack of PLAN or Chinese govt support for the carrier program.
