ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

thunderchief

Senior Member
The Syrian army could hold Palmyra at heavy cost and the world would be happy to let the fight rumble on without too much attention.
If however they decide to conserve their forces and withdraw to a stronger position, it is suddenly international news.
I am aware, that in addition to the Roman Ruins, there is a also a major Gas Field near by. I also wonder how this works in relation to the direct proximity of ISIS and Al Nusra and whether the SAA withdrawal leaves these two extremist groups challenging each other for the Gas Field?

As an army, SAA is too rigid, based on Soviet model with added hindrance of compulsory political loyalty for Assad's family - not country . Also, units are made of mixed bag of conscripts - Sunni , Shia , Alawites , Christians ... There is no internal cohesion and morale is usually low . As such, SAA is pretty much useless as an infantry force, especially in attack . They prefer to use Hezbollah and NDF for that .

Despite some successes like capture of Homs , SAA has needlessly lost too much personal and equipment . Assad strategy for now indeed looks like he wants to retreat to coastal areas where he has most of support because he cannot endure to fight both Al Nusra (now heavily armed by the West) and ISIS ( armed by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies) . Would that strategy work is anyone's guess . If they retreat too much Assad's regime could crumble . Hardest thing in retreat is to stop . We shall see.
 

Miragedriver

Brigadier
Islamic State seizes Syria's last border crossing with Iraq
Security forces withdrew from the crossing, known as al-Waleed in Iraq and al-Tanf in Syria, which is in Syria's Homs province where Isil seized Palmyra

KApCZEK.jpg

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
(Isil) has seized the last border crossing between
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
and
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
controlled by the Syrian government after security forces withdrew, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said on Thursday.

Iraqi officials said Iraqi security forces had also withdrawn from their side of the crossing known as as al-Waleed in Iraq and al-Tanf in Syria. The crossing is in Syria's Homs province, where Islamic State on Wednesday seized
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.

It was not immediately clear when Islamic State took the site.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


An Islamic State fighter contacted by Reuters confirmed the group had taken control of the crossing, which is 150 miles drive from Palmyra, known as Tadmur in Arabic.

Islamic State also controls a border crossing between Syrian province of Deir al-Zor and the Iraqi province of Anbar, while a border crossing between the two countries in north-eastern Syria is controlled by a Kurdish militia, the YPG.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Islamic State has declared a cross-border "caliphate" in the territory it controls in Syria and Iraq.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Islamist rebels on Friday overran a hospital in north-west Syria where at least 150 regime forces and dozens of civilians were trapped for nearly a month, Rami Abdel Rahman, who heads the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Al-Nusra Front, which is al-Qaeda's affiliate in Syria, and other factions "have taken complete control of Jisr al-Shughur hospital".

Priest kidnapped
A priest of the Syriac Catholic Church in the western Syrian city of Homs was kidnapped along with one of his colleagues, the NGO l'Oeuvre d'Orient told AFP on Friday.

Father Jacques Mourad was seized with another Christian originating from Aleppo, who was helping the priest on Thursday.

"The priest was kidnapped by three masked people in the early afternoon at his Mar Elian Monastery in Qaryatayn, while he was preparing to welcome an expected influx of refugees from Palmyra," said the NGO.

The Syrian Observatory confirmed that "two men, at least one of them a priest," were kidnapped by armed men "near Qaryatayn, in the Homs province".

Father Mourad succeeded the Italian Jesuit priest Paolo Dall'Oglio as the head of the Mar Moussa Monastery, which is linked to Mar Elian.

The Jesuit priest has been missing for nearly two years after being kidnapped in Syria's northern Aleppo province.

The NGO said that Father Mourad worked to foster inter-religious dialogue, and worked with both Christians and Muslims.

Link:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!



Back to bottling my Grenache
 

thunderchief

Senior Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Not very likely . What we have here is basically Sunni vs all others (Shia, Christians,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Sunni side is basically bankrolled and organized by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies, with influence and help from Turkey . My guess is that they want to create some kind of caliphate, maybe not overtly and radically as ISIS, but perhaps some kind of confederation with "moderate" Islamic ideology . West, especially US , supports this coalition , in exchange for petrodollar agreement and most likely because of promise of Saudi Arabia to dismantle ISIS and other radicals once they fulfill their goals on the ground . Saudi Arabia even now offers logistical support for ISIS (most of foreign fighters in ISIS are Saudi subjects) but that would quickly end when their usefulness end . Of course , that doesn't guarantee ISIS would be easily dismantled - it is easy to sow seeds of evil but hard to uproot them .
Important angle for US foreign policy is Israel . Unlike Iran or Syria under Assad , Saudi Arabia does not do anything concrete against Israelis except empty rhetoric . If the Sunni coalition wins, US hopes Israel position would be bettered , assuming that whole of new "caliphate" copies Saudi foreign policy towards Israel .


On the other hand, we have Shia & others coalition led by Iran . Iran , although vastly more secular then Saudi Arabia, is unacceptable to the West because of its anti-Israel (anti-Zionist as they would like to say) stance . Same thing goes for Baathists regimes like Assad's or former Saddam's in Iraq . Conflict between them and Israelis makes them automatic villains in US eyes . Ba'ath regimes were once allies of Soviet Union. In modern times Russia tries to reestablish this connection, but simply doesn't have that much power and influence to keep them from falling. Of course , Putin would not just throw Assad under the buss, so Russia helps them in what ways it could because it is their last ally in Arab world . Lately, even China tries to discretely assert its own influence in the region. On the other hand, Iran was a pariah in international relations a while ago, but now despite some ideological differences looks like ties between them and Russia are improving . Nevertheless , this coalition is on the defensive right now , because they simply cannot withstand joint military&economic power of Gulf monarchies and the West .

In the middle of this we have Kurds , darlings of Western press but somehow standing in the way of Saudi and Turkish goals . Also, current Iraqi regime, dominated by Shias (therefore naturally allied with Iran) but dependent on US . With all this global players involved with their interests, I don't think any anti-ISIS coalition would be created in a long time . Quite the opposite, ISIS would most likely use every opportunity they have to strengthen themselves . And as war drags on , with different conflicts inside of it , they would be tougher to destroy .
 

solarz

Brigadier
Hmmm... I thought the US airstrikes were turning the tide? Doesn't look to be the case anymore.

I agree with Thunderchief's assessments. The Iraqi "Army" stands no chance against ISIS. The only thing propping the current Iraqi government up are Shiite militias. On Syria's side, Assad's advantage has always been that the rebels didn't have heavy weapons. Now that ISIS has american tanks...
 

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
Omg no please not Palmyra??

I visited this beautiful oasis city in the middle of a desert in 2004 when I was on holiday there a truly amazing city what a stunning place it was and it was filled with thousands tourist during the summer season

Any one on SkyscraperCity? I have posted all of Palmyra pics there

And most amazingly the Christians of the city had lived there for over 3,000 years and seen so many civilisations come and go

Muslims and Christians lived side by side

I am sure ISIS is going to turn the city into dust a another page of history wiped off for good
 

janjak desalin

Junior Member
...On Syria's side, Assad's advantage has always been that the rebels didn't have heavy weapons. Now that ISIS has american tanks...
actually, i consider Assad's forces reliance on heavy weapons as a disadvantage.
i opined, earlier that,
I'm all for fighting ISIL, but I question the tactical effectiveness of these long distance and, not quite precision-accuracy, rockets on a small, mobile force. Much as some would like to always fight from afar. Sometimes you just got'ta "seek out, close with and destroy the enemy by fire and close combat". At least, that's how I was trained!
additionally, Thunderchief opined that,
As an army, SAA is too rigid, based on Soviet model with added hindrance of compulsory political loyalty for Assad's family - not country . Also, units are made of mixed bag of conscripts - Sunni , Shia , Alawites , Christians ... There is no internal cohesion and morale is usually low . As such, SAA is pretty much useless as an infantry force, especially in attack.(...)
this concurs with my opinion that:
...too many developing nations use military equipment more in the service of their regime police/security apparatus than in the service of foreign policy/national security. interestingly, recent history, over the past several decades, has illustrated how poorly internally oriented militaries perform when faced with external challenges.
as a result of their orientation, Assad's forces have hidden behind heavy and long-range weaponry for fear of getting bloody.
as i posted as a comment on NYT.com, it seems that ISIS/ISIL is the only party in this war that is willing to suffer the casualties necessary to win. and this, my fellows, is a significant advantage!
 

Miragedriver

Brigadier
Omg no please not Palmyra??

I visited this beautiful oasis city in the middle of a desert in 2004 when I was on holiday there a truly amazing city what a stunning place it was and it was filled with thousands tourist during the summer season

Any one on SkyscraperCity? I have posted all of Palmyra pics there

And most amazingly the Christians of the city had lived there for over 3,000 years and seen so many civilisations come and go

Muslims and Christians lived side by side

I am sure ISIS is going to turn the city into dust a another page of history wiped off for good


I concur with you Asif.:( I visited in 1997. What an amazing place not commercialized like other ancient places around the world. It will be a loss to the patrimony of mankind.

Below are some previous post I made of Palmyra:
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/breaking-world-news-iii-no-discussion.t7090/page-30#post-341718

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/breaking-world-news-iii-no-discussion.t7090/page-31#post-342179



Back to bottling my Grenache
 

kwaigonegin

Colonel
Raw footage of ISIS taking control of Ramadi from today: May 20, 2015

I don’t usually comment on these reports. However, we (collectively) need to pray for all the women that will be raped today, husbands that will be killed and children that will be sold as slaves.:(

I agree. For the most part ramadi has been pro government and not ISIS sympathizers. I'm afraid the revenge killing and torture of men, women and children by ISIS will be unrelentless and cruel beyond believe.
 

delft

Brigadier
And most amazingly the Christians of the city had lived there for over 3,000 years and seen so many civilisations come and go
OT
3000 years ago they weren't Christians but likely ancestors of the Christians and Muslims living there now, just like 3000 years ago ancestors of Jews and Palestinians were living in the country that after the end of the Bar Kochba War was called Palestine.
 
Top