Zetageist
Junior Member
HowThreateningIsTheS-400?
15:15 28.04.2015(updated 15:05 28.04.2015)
A number of publications by American experts and particularly, an article by Michael Cole in The Diplomat examine the possible strategic consequences of deliveries of Russian-made anti-aircraft missile systems S-400 to China.
15:15 28.04.2015(updated 15:05 28.04.2015)
A number of publications by American experts and particularly, an article by Michael Cole in The Diplomat examine the possible strategic consequences of deliveries of Russian-made anti-aircraft missile systems S-400 to China.
However, some foreign experts, after the publishing of Cole’s article have concluded that “anxiety regarding this is premature”, by downplaying potential of these complexes. In a series of articles specially prepared for the “Sputnik”, Vasily Kashin, expert from the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, analyzes this article.
Michael Cole considers that in reality the range of these complexes is insufficient for dealing with targets at a range of 400 kilometers. That is, even if this range is reached, deployment of the system will face serious restrictions at high altitudes. Some of these considerations are, of course, correct, some are pure guesswork.
The main question that arises is will a heavy missile be supplied to China along with S-400 complex? Russia and China will never disclose the specific composition of the S-400, offered for delivery. Only, the fact of conclusion of a contract has been confirmed. All speculations in this regard are tentative. Nevertheless, there are several factors that speak in favor of the fact that China will, all the same, receive deliveries of a heavy missile.
China, in principle, seeks to minimize dependence on imports of arms and makes significant purchases of foreign technology only when these purchases provide fundamentally new tactical advantages to the PLA.
By the end of the year 2010, China had bought 15 divisions of the Russian anti-aircraft missile system S-300PMU2 “Favorit”, after which purchase of these complexes were suspended. It is obvious that at that time the Chinese had reached a conclusion that these complexes, along with a growing number of their own systems HQ-9, are sufficient for their needs.
They are not planning to return to the question of continuing procurement of the S-300 and keeping in mind only the question of procurement of the S-400. In this case, from the very beginning, it was obvious that the waiting period for deliveries of the first S-400 to PLA will get extended to a lot of years.
S-400, even without the heavy missile 40N6E with a range of 400 km, has certain advantages over the S-300. But these advantages are not that far-reaching. The complex has got modernized ground equipment, but uses the same missiles 48N6E/E2/E3, which are used by the S-300, or an improved version of these missiles.
Improved ground equipment and advanced missile allow for the range to be extended from 200 to 250 km.
The S-400 also has a useful option for using the more light missiles 9M96E/E2 to fight against the enemy’s cruise missiles, but it is hardly worth its quality for the Chinese to place it in their priority list — for this purpose, they have their complex of HQ-16 and a number of other systems. In general, procurement by the PLA of the S-400 without heavy missiles, when they have a significant amount of the S-300PMU2 complexes available with them, with a gradual but a steady growth of characteristics of their own systems HQ-9, simply does not make any sense.
Will the missile 40N6E be made available to the Chinese? Its trials were conducted for a long period, but substantial progress was achieved only in 2012. In early April of the year 2015, after completion of regular and successful trials, it was announced that the missile will be officially inducted into active service in the coming months.
In the Soviet times, such a weapon system would have never been offered for export. But in the post-Soviet period, concluding of export transactions of weapons systems that have not been inducted into the Russian army, has become a common practice.
Russia is not offering S-400 to everyone in a row. “Conventional” buyers of Russian long range air defense systems (for example, Venezuela and Egypt) will now be supplied with the S-300VM (for which, incidentally, there already exists a missile with a range of over 300 kilometers).
Russian officials emphasize that delivery of S-400 to the Chinese is also proof of a special status in political relations between the two countries. It should be kept in mind that for Russia, the importance of maintaining a close partnership with China has significantly increased in the recent years, so the question of supply of heavy missiles may, most likely, get resolved on a positive note.
