Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
broadsword
Brigadier
Western companies, particularly those from Japan, have been developing alternatives to rare earths and recycling from end of life products. I don't think they out-perform rare earth minerals, so China is not losing sleep, but neither do Western govts need to feel so flustered but just deal with it.
broadsword
Brigadier
Having read the WSJ article I am left no clearer to understand what Mr Obama's offer actually is.
Is it:
a) An agreement to jointly fund selected projects with the WB and IMF
b) An agreement not to offer rival investment offers to projects approached for finance by the WB and IMF
c) Only to invest in projects agreed and also supported by the WB and IMF
I have to say that any agreement other than a) would simply be an attempt to gain back door control of the AIIB and I cannot see any reason for China and the other members to possible agree to such terms.
My suspicion is that the US will push for option c) and that when it is rejected, will use this to pressure its European Allies over a "clear failure of Governence" and seek to force them out of membership and use their leaving as evidence of the Bank being discredited and lacking credibility.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Probably in part too it's a face-saving measure. Most of the G7 has jumped-in and to carry on further protests only more works against the US. It'll be pretty stupid for China to give US allies a say greater than they contribute especially since they gave China disproportionately less than it contributed to the IMF and World Bank.
Zool
Junior Member
The value of joining the AIIB is pretty self evident from an Access to Markets ROI perspective. It's firmly backed by capital and there are many, many projects in the region that need finance and material support to get going. In fact with China's experience in infrastructure development and aversion to overregulatory red tape, I think it is the best positioned country to establish and lead the bank successfully.
At this point the AIIB has it's charter and governance in place. It also has strong momentum behind it. I don't see any room or value in special deals to accommodate other countries still on the fence. I think a major win for China would be the US signing on to the bank sometime after the establishing date and therefore not having founding member status. Second to that would be the US not joining at all. But I think either of those would be a foolish decision for long term US interests - so let's see where the next couple of weeks take us!
At this point the AIIB has it's charter and governance in place. It also has strong momentum behind it. I don't see any room or value in special deals to accommodate other countries still on the fence. I think a major win for China would be the US signing on to the bank sometime after the establishing date and therefore not having founding member status. Second to that would be the US not joining at all. But I think either of those would be a foolish decision for long term US interests - so let's see where the next couple of weeks take us!
broadsword
Brigadier
Ultra
Junior Member
This is worrying, the new president seems to be leaning towards India. First foreign visit is to India, and he halted all Chinese backed project and put all of them "under review". Even though the project may now be resuming, I think his political leaning is plenty to see and has wide ranging strategic implication. I personally think Beijing will have to consider the possibility that Sri Lanka for the next decade will be closer to India than China - which means PLAN will have to go the "expensive route" for creating more naval assets and CVBGs in order to sustain presence in Indian ocean.