airsuperiority
Captain
Re: Chinese General news resource thread
I didn't even know my folks had gotten used to the pepper spray already
I didn't even know my folks had gotten used to the pepper spray already
Hong Kong....Occupy Central Demonstrations....
- Thread starter bd popeye
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Re: Chinese General news resource thread
The longer it drags on the worse it becomes for HK's economy. Short term wise it will hit the number of mainland tourists and affect the retail and tourism sector. The recent discrimination of mainlanders started this trend and will continue after prolonged chaos. Long term it will be worse with investors. The majority of HKers will likely then turn on the hot headed students. Central govt can sit tight and wait this out as they said no excessive violence will be used unlike the brutality used against occupiers in the West. Of course the western media will distort this and bash china but it's not like they won't use other issues anyway so it is not avoidable. Ultimate outcome hk remains more stagnant while shanghai catches up.
The longer it drags on the worse it becomes for HK's economy. Short term wise it will hit the number of mainland tourists and affect the retail and tourism sector. The recent discrimination of mainlanders started this trend and will continue after prolonged chaos. Long term it will be worse with investors. The majority of HKers will likely then turn on the hot headed students. Central govt can sit tight and wait this out as they said no excessive violence will be used unlike the brutality used against occupiers in the West. Of course the western media will distort this and bash china but it's not like they won't use other issues anyway so it is not avoidable. Ultimate outcome hk remains more stagnant while shanghai catches up.
Blackstone
Brigadier
Re: Chinese Daily Photos 2014!
OK, that does it. There's violence, there's injuries, and there's property damage, so it's time to send in SWAT teams and restore order. If SWAT can't do it, then send in the PEP, and if they can't do it, then send in the PLA. No government can allow anarchy and once peaceful protests turn ugly, it's the duty of the government to restore order. Rule of law, people, not rule by mob!
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Re: Chinese Daily Photos 2014!
Article doesn't say there's property damage, and injuries doesn't automatically mean violence. As far as I know there hasn't been an escalation and at the moment there's no reason to send in anything other than the police.
MwRYum
Major
It's not easy in HK to arrange any general strike because while in other places the union will cover the pay, there's no such net in HK. For most of us, if we strike we don't get pay, simple as that. Now let's see if those boys and girls pay for our wages with their pocket money!
So today, we see people get up to work 2 hours ahead of usual, to make up for any contingency in traffic. We all try to keep up the semblance of order, while those boys and girls disrupt it to fulfil their revolutionary fantasy.
The stock market reacted but that's within expectation, it's no crash. If there's a 1000 points evaporated by the day's end, then yes; more than 1000 points then it'd be a bad crash.
And as it seems Beijing isn't in that terrible of a hurry to resolve this, though news of this has been blocked in Mainland China. If anything, those insurgents won't come out any new tricks beyond what they already doing...anything "new" will cross into the "violence" threshold.
It's worth to note that this so-called "Umbrella Revolution" has all the characteristics of Coloured Revolution, including the tireless demonizing of the police over the last few years. Given the local media's lopsided leaning on the side of the insurgents, take their posts with a huge pinch of salt if I were you. Especially in the last few months there're exposures concerning how many of the anti-government politicians are taking money - via proxy - from the Uncle Sam, and they never declared as per rules & regulations requires them to as legislators.
It's especially ridiculous when they say the use of CS gas as "shockingly violent"...well they really need to look at the US, like Ferguson, MO recently...you know what? If Beijing sent in PLA to use LD2000 to "mow the lawn" then yes it'd qualify. But we know better.
So today, we see people get up to work 2 hours ahead of usual, to make up for any contingency in traffic. We all try to keep up the semblance of order, while those boys and girls disrupt it to fulfil their revolutionary fantasy.
The stock market reacted but that's within expectation, it's no crash. If there's a 1000 points evaporated by the day's end, then yes; more than 1000 points then it'd be a bad crash.
And as it seems Beijing isn't in that terrible of a hurry to resolve this, though news of this has been blocked in Mainland China. If anything, those insurgents won't come out any new tricks beyond what they already doing...anything "new" will cross into the "violence" threshold.
It's worth to note that this so-called "Umbrella Revolution" has all the characteristics of Coloured Revolution, including the tireless demonizing of the police over the last few years. Given the local media's lopsided leaning on the side of the insurgents, take their posts with a huge pinch of salt if I were you. Especially in the last few months there're exposures concerning how many of the anti-government politicians are taking money - via proxy - from the Uncle Sam, and they never declared as per rules & regulations requires them to as legislators.
It's especially ridiculous when they say the use of CS gas as "shockingly violent"...well they really need to look at the US, like Ferguson, MO recently...you know what? If Beijing sent in PLA to use LD2000 to "mow the lawn" then yes it'd qualify. But we know better.
Miragedriver
Brigadier
I will now get back to bottling my Malbec
Blackstone
Brigadier
Re: Chinese Daily Photos 2014!
Overwhelming evidence show large protesting groups aren't predictable and situations could turn ugly at the drop of a hat. Responsible authorities need to stay on top of it and be prepared to do whatever it's necessary to restore order if groups of peaceful protesters turn into lawless mobs. That's why HK and PRC authorities need to coordinate and take measured steps to manage the situation and escalate as needed. But, let's have no delusions of what happens when mobs rule the streets, and civil authorities that pussyfoot with lawlessness get what they deserve.
Overwhelming evidence show large protesting groups aren't predictable and situations could turn ugly at the drop of a hat. Responsible authorities need to stay on top of it and be prepared to do whatever it's necessary to restore order if groups of peaceful protesters turn into lawless mobs. That's why HK and PRC authorities need to coordinate and take measured steps to manage the situation and escalate as needed. But, let's have no delusions of what happens when mobs rule the streets, and civil authorities that pussyfoot with lawlessness get what they deserve.
I maintain that the majority of the protest and discontent in Hong Kong is mainly due to economic reasons. Hong Kong has always been a place of wide gaps between rich and poor. But in recent years it has gotten much worse. The reason in part is because China has gotten much wealthier and Hong Kong and its monetary and economic system has not adapted itself to this fact. The currency for one thing. The value of China's currency has risen about 25% since 2005 and the HKD has stayed the same. Since HK imports so much of its needs from China that it has help to drive up the cost of living for all people's in the territory. And of course as China gets richer and the currency gets stronger the inflation pressure on HK will increase. This will affect more and more people and will be a constant and growing source of discontent and resentment amongst the HK populace. People often blame Chinese tourists for the high inflation but that's wrong. When tourists spend their money in hotels, restaurants, taxi's and shops is when they put money into the pockets of the Hongkongese. Without those tourists arrivals Hong Kong would be much worse off today. The reason for the high inflation is in part because of the exchange rate. Hong Kong and the Hongkongese have to pay 25% more today from what they were paying 9 years ago just from the difference in the exchange rates. Of course the exchange rate is not the only source of inflation in HK. The HKD is pegged to the USD and that's the reason why the value of the HKD hasn't risen in all those years. HK doesn't have a independent monetary policy and is led by the nose by the FED. HK isn't even an afterthought for the policy makers in Washington or Beijing when they make up their monetary policies. But the effect on HK is enormous. And HK has no way to respond as it doesn't have its own central bank.
Then there is the 0% interest rates that HK has gotten from the FED. That has also helped to increase the gap between the rich and poor in HK as it on the one hand increase asset prices and on the other hand suppress wages. It has also helped in the feeding of the speculative frenzy in HK. The rich has benefitted from it and the poor has paid the price for it.
Then of course there are the speculators from China that has poured into the housing market in HK since the early 1990's. Once again because of the increase in wealth in China that too has ballooned to the extend that the local Hongkongese has been priced out of the market. Which of course is another source of resentment on part of the Hongkongese towards the Chinese.
I think the solution will be radical monetary reforms that means either Hong Kong re-calibrate the peg to the USD or they get rid of the peg all together and set up their own central bank. They then will print the HKD either as a free floating currency or one that is pegged to a basket of currencies that includes all of the most important regional and global currencies. This salution is more preferable because this gives HK a means to respond to the monetary policies coming in from both China and America. But rather that will happen is another question. Since this means that a lot of vested interest will be hurt and those interest (read plutocrats) are in control of the political process. A lot of real estate moguls in HK will have to go bust or lose a lot of money if HK had a independent central bank with a (responsible) interest rate policy could cause a correction (read collapse) in the real estate market. I don't think they would like that. Would a democratic regime change all of this ? Well, in the case of the US, Europe and Japan it didn't. That is in part why HK is in such a mess today.
I wonder how many of the people who are protesting today understand this.
A note on those Chinese tourists.
The reason why there are so many Chinese tourist shopping in HK or even in America and Europe is because of China's policy to tax the toys of the rich. The tariffs and taxes in China has made brands like Louise Vuitton and Chanel twice as expensive as in those other places. But the rich will have their toys one way or the other! So the policy has backfired and the rich instead of shopping inside China they shop outside of China in HK, America or in Europe. If they would reverse that policy then there will be fewer people buying stuff in HK but that is going to be bad for the HK economy. But you can't have everything in life.
Then there is the 0% interest rates that HK has gotten from the FED. That has also helped to increase the gap between the rich and poor in HK as it on the one hand increase asset prices and on the other hand suppress wages. It has also helped in the feeding of the speculative frenzy in HK. The rich has benefitted from it and the poor has paid the price for it.
Then of course there are the speculators from China that has poured into the housing market in HK since the early 1990's. Once again because of the increase in wealth in China that too has ballooned to the extend that the local Hongkongese has been priced out of the market. Which of course is another source of resentment on part of the Hongkongese towards the Chinese.
I think the solution will be radical monetary reforms that means either Hong Kong re-calibrate the peg to the USD or they get rid of the peg all together and set up their own central bank. They then will print the HKD either as a free floating currency or one that is pegged to a basket of currencies that includes all of the most important regional and global currencies. This salution is more preferable because this gives HK a means to respond to the monetary policies coming in from both China and America. But rather that will happen is another question. Since this means that a lot of vested interest will be hurt and those interest (read plutocrats) are in control of the political process. A lot of real estate moguls in HK will have to go bust or lose a lot of money if HK had a independent central bank with a (responsible) interest rate policy could cause a correction (read collapse) in the real estate market. I don't think they would like that. Would a democratic regime change all of this ? Well, in the case of the US, Europe and Japan it didn't. That is in part why HK is in such a mess today.
I wonder how many of the people who are protesting today understand this.
A note on those Chinese tourists.
The reason why there are so many Chinese tourist shopping in HK or even in America and Europe is because of China's policy to tax the toys of the rich. The tariffs and taxes in China has made brands like Louise Vuitton and Chanel twice as expensive as in those other places. But the rich will have their toys one way or the other! So the policy has backfired and the rich instead of shopping inside China they shop outside of China in HK, America or in Europe. If they would reverse that policy then there will be fewer people buying stuff in HK but that is going to be bad for the HK economy. But you can't have everything in life.
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Geographer
Junior Member
Interesting post, Franklin. You're right that economic anxiety has played a large role in these protests. Hong Kong's economy has boomed since 1997. But the perception among a large part of the city is the benefits have flowed to a small group of tycoons rather than them.
However, consider that students, even secondary and high school students, are playing a leading role in the current protests. They are too young to remember what things were like before 1997, or worry about inflation or jobs or housing prices. Sure they hear about those things from their parents, teachers, and the news but it's not something they've experienced, and we know that personal experience is the most powerful motivation.
There's a sense that Hong Kong is under threat by the PRC. Hong Kongers genuinely feel they are different from the PRC culturally, politically, economically, linguistically, and they want to keep it that way. Occupy Central cite forcing HK to go into debt to fund the high speed rail link and the effort to put pro-communist propaganda into schools are examples of Beijing encroaching on HK.
In my opinion these threats are exaggerated. Beijing has done a remarkable job in staying hands-off in HK since 1997. The PLA garrison is invisible and the Chief Executives have continued the policies of the pre-1997 governors. They even introduced a minimum wage which the left has wanted for a long time. Unemployment has been low, the stock market has boomed, and the currency has been stable. Freedoms of the press, religion, and demonstration (up to now, remember the annual Tiannamen Square Massacre memorials?) have been unaffected by the handover. The other economic issues like rising cost of living are to economic policies, or lack of them, from the Hong Kong government rather than anything Beijing is telling HK.
Still, that is an argument for more democracy in HK. As long as Beijing plays a strong role in choosing the Chief Executive, HKers will fear more Beijing meddling. Beijing's policy can change. Just because they've been hands off on HK up to 2014 doesn't mean they always will be. Officially-recognized true democracy is a both guarantee against future Beijing meddling and a way to solve current economic problems. That's why HKers are in the streets this week.
To all those who say the police should immediately crack down on the demonstrations, would you feel the same with the 1919 May 4 Movement in Beijing? How about when Russians protested against the Tsar in March 1917 and the Tsar ordered his soldiers to open fire? How about when gangsters suppressed the communist uprising in Shanghai in 1927? How about when Iranians protested the Shah in 1979 and the Shah ordered his soldiers to open fire? How about South Korean union workers protested the South Korean military dictator in the 1980s?
Public demonstrations and civil disobedience are the peaceful tools of last resort for mass movements in un-democratic societies. In lieu of free and fair elections they are the only way for a large part of the population to show their strength and effect change. The only thing left after that is armed revolt.
Public demonstrations played a huge role in the decolonization of India, Algeria, and other countries. It's ironic to see communists and their apologists preaching the law and order gospel of the regimes they overthrew when they were revolutionaries not so long ago, and agitated for the right of the people to strike and protest. It seems like communists are for the right to protest when it is they who are protesting, but against it when it is someone else.
When do large demonstrations turn violent? Usually when the police and/or army attack them and people are forced to run and defend themselves. Tear gas, pepper spray, and batons are violence and they hurt people. Shooting a tear gas grenade into a ground is extremely dangerous because it can cause a stampede which can crush to death anyone who trips and falls. If you don't want people to get hurt, don't use those weapons. Sometimes in anti-globalization, anti-capitalism protests in the West there are anarchists who start smashing shops but Hong Kong does not have that problem.
However, consider that students, even secondary and high school students, are playing a leading role in the current protests. They are too young to remember what things were like before 1997, or worry about inflation or jobs or housing prices. Sure they hear about those things from their parents, teachers, and the news but it's not something they've experienced, and we know that personal experience is the most powerful motivation.
There's a sense that Hong Kong is under threat by the PRC. Hong Kongers genuinely feel they are different from the PRC culturally, politically, economically, linguistically, and they want to keep it that way. Occupy Central cite forcing HK to go into debt to fund the high speed rail link and the effort to put pro-communist propaganda into schools are examples of Beijing encroaching on HK.
In my opinion these threats are exaggerated. Beijing has done a remarkable job in staying hands-off in HK since 1997. The PLA garrison is invisible and the Chief Executives have continued the policies of the pre-1997 governors. They even introduced a minimum wage which the left has wanted for a long time. Unemployment has been low, the stock market has boomed, and the currency has been stable. Freedoms of the press, religion, and demonstration (up to now, remember the annual Tiannamen Square Massacre memorials?) have been unaffected by the handover. The other economic issues like rising cost of living are to economic policies, or lack of them, from the Hong Kong government rather than anything Beijing is telling HK.
Still, that is an argument for more democracy in HK. As long as Beijing plays a strong role in choosing the Chief Executive, HKers will fear more Beijing meddling. Beijing's policy can change. Just because they've been hands off on HK up to 2014 doesn't mean they always will be. Officially-recognized true democracy is a both guarantee against future Beijing meddling and a way to solve current economic problems. That's why HKers are in the streets this week.
To all those who say the police should immediately crack down on the demonstrations, would you feel the same with the 1919 May 4 Movement in Beijing? How about when Russians protested against the Tsar in March 1917 and the Tsar ordered his soldiers to open fire? How about when gangsters suppressed the communist uprising in Shanghai in 1927? How about when Iranians protested the Shah in 1979 and the Shah ordered his soldiers to open fire? How about South Korean union workers protested the South Korean military dictator in the 1980s?
Public demonstrations and civil disobedience are the peaceful tools of last resort for mass movements in un-democratic societies. In lieu of free and fair elections they are the only way for a large part of the population to show their strength and effect change. The only thing left after that is armed revolt.
Public demonstrations played a huge role in the decolonization of India, Algeria, and other countries. It's ironic to see communists and their apologists preaching the law and order gospel of the regimes they overthrew when they were revolutionaries not so long ago, and agitated for the right of the people to strike and protest. It seems like communists are for the right to protest when it is they who are protesting, but against it when it is someone else.
When do large demonstrations turn violent? Usually when the police and/or army attack them and people are forced to run and defend themselves. Tear gas, pepper spray, and batons are violence and they hurt people. Shooting a tear gas grenade into a ground is extremely dangerous because it can cause a stampede which can crush to death anyone who trips and falls. If you don't want people to get hurt, don't use those weapons. Sometimes in anti-globalization, anti-capitalism protests in the West there are anarchists who start smashing shops but Hong Kong does not have that problem.
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