China Geopolitical News Thread

Re: East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

SamuraiBlue said:

Simply adding data just raises the amount of noise in which it will always be filtered out. It's like the judging at Olympic games the highest and lowest points are removed to gain a more stable base line.

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Of course garbage should be removed, the assumption is about valid data. Which in this case is an opinion poll about different opinions the more the better not Olympics judges trying to determine a single score besides what's wrong with having more judges. Are you implying that some countries like Cambodia and Laos do not deserve to be polled because they are considered noise?

Re: East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

The number of countries in Asia is finite and not like the crowd in a football stadium. That's noise.

So why are the views of other Asian countries are not considered as relevant to an important poll? Obviously to slant and present a skewed "report".

It's just alike a court case whereby the prosecutor only calls witnesses who say the prosecuted is guilty.

SamuraiBlue said:

Simply adding data just raises the amount of noise in which it will always be filtered out. It's like the judging at Olympic games the highest and lowest points are removed to gain a more stable base line.

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Re: East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

Blackstone said:

You made good points, and our differences may be more style than substance. Nevertheless, our biggest disagreement is on item number 3-

According to the Pew article linked below, most of China's neighbors are quite concerned about her territorial disputes, and see the US more as an ally than China; which means Asian nations do indeed want US forces to stick around to balance China.

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I think in regard to point 3 of your earlier post and US Forces in Asia, the answer is very contextual. My response was to say that given security assurance from China & North Korea, most countries would prefer US Forces not be in Asia. I think that's a fair assessment. Remember too that the United States itself does not have a stellar record in Asia over the last century, having fought multiple wars that resulted in significant casualties and destruction.

A few have already touched on the recent polling. My original comment here was going to be the nations that were left out. Also that polling as mentioned by others, can be directed toward a desired conclusion. Example, the phrasing of the questions and the order in which they are asked can lead respondees down a particular line of thought.

My view is that the majority of nations in Asia that currently have dispute with China over territory/resources see the US as a hedge to China and China using it's military advantage to influence an outcome. Hedge I think is the best way to look at it, as the word Ally has degree's of meaning. The US, Canada & UK are probably the closest allies in the world. Compare that to the US/Pakistan Alliance. Or even the US/Japan Alliance, which was born out of post-war occupation.

Ultimately, as issues of territory and resources are resolved in Asia, the reason for US Forces being there will diminish.

Re: East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

Blackstone said:

According to the Pew article linked below, most of China's neighbors are quite concerned about her territorial disputes, and see the US more as an ally than China; which means Asian nations do indeed want US forces to stick around to balance China.

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As you usual, you make assertions without the facts to back them up. I'm still waiting for you to quote the passage in international law where you claim US's surveillance actions are legal.

As to the two polls above, the first poll indicates only 3 out of 11 of China's neighbors see it as the greatest threat, and those 3 are the usual suspects: Japan, Philippines, and Vietnam. The poll deliberately stacks the pool with US-friendly countries and omits countries like Russia, Mongolia, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, North Korea, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, etc. In short, it is an extremely biased poll and does not support your conclusions.

As for the second poll, the question simply asks if people are concerned that China's territorial disputes would lead to a military conflict. Well duh, most people would be concerned about that. Hell, even the Chinese themselves would be concerned about that! It does not, in any way, reflect what those people think about China's position in those territorial disputes.

Re: East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

solarz said:

As you usual, you make assertions without the facts to back them up. I'm still waiting for you to quote the passage in international law where you claim US's surveillance actions are legal.

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One point international laws and regulations point what is the border line in which is not tolerated. They do not specify anything that is within accepted norm. What you are asking is the same as providing proof that ghosts does not exist.

Re: East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

Brumby said:

There is a saying "If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything." If one already has a pre-conceived view, the objective then is merely to look for anything that supports that view and torture the statistics to suit the narrative.

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Agreed, but there's also the notion you could criticize and obfuscate data to marginalize outcomes you don't like.

The key takeaway from Pew's poll is the clear theme China's neighbors are nervous about her reemergence, and they want someone to shield them actual, potential, or imaginary harm. At present, that someone happens to be the United States.

Re: East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

nameless said:

Of course garbage should be removed, the assumption is about valid data. Which in this case is an opinion poll about different opinions the more the better not Olympics judges trying to determine a single score besides what's wrong with having more judges. Are you implying that some countries like Cambodia and Laos do not deserve to be polled because they are considered noise?

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The essence of Pew's poll was to show some of China's most important neighbors (yes, I'm saying Vietnam, ROK, and Japan are relatively more important to China than Cambodia, Laos, and Bhutan) are nervous about her reemergence, and want other great power(s) to balance her. Adding Cambodia, Loas, and all of the 'Stan' countries wouldn't change that fact.

Re: East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

Blackstone said:

The essence of Pew's poll was to show some of China's most important neighbors (yes, I'm saying Vietnam, ROK, and Japan are relatively more important to China than Cambodia, Laos, and Bhutan) are nervous about her reemergence, and want other great power(s) to balance her. Adding Cambodia, Loas, and all of the 'Stan' countries wouldn't change that fact.

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How do you know what countries are more important to China? China is not going to better its relations with Vietnam at the expense of harming relations with Laos. In fact it can be argued that the more hostile they are to china the less important they become. Besides the poll clearly said Asia repeatedly which has nothing to do with importance. Do 11 countries represent the whole of Asia or even the majority?

Re: East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

Zool said:

I think in regard to point 3 of your earlier post and US Forces in Asia, the answer is very contextual. My response was to say that given security assurance from China & North Korea, most countries would prefer US Forces not be in Asia. I think that's a fair assessment. Remember too that the United States itself does not have a stellar record in Asia over the last century, having fought multiple wars that resulted in significant casualties and destruction.

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My problem with your argument is it's not credible to believe security guarantees from North Korea, even with China's assurance of DPRK good behavior.

You're right about less-than-stellar US record in Asia, so the followup question is why so many of China's neighbors like the US more, and want her to stick around?

A few have already touched on the recent polling. My original comment here was going to be the nations that were left out. Also that polling as mentioned by others, can be directed toward a desired conclusion. Example, the phrasing of the questions and the order in which they are asked can lead respondees down a particular line of thought.

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It's possible to poke holes in any public opinion survey, since none of them is ever perfect. However, if we look at the underlying theme of respondents, it is 'We're kind of nervous about China's reemergence and we want the US to stick around, just in case Pax Sinica turns out to be a piece of this country and a piece of that. Oh! But please, please, United States, don't upset China too much, and for God's sake, don't make us choose between you two middle kingdoms.'

My view is that the majority of nations in Asia that currently have dispute with China over territory/resources see the US as a hedge to China and China using it's military advantage to influence an outcome...

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We agree on hedge.

Ultimately, as issues of territory and resources are resolved in Asia, the reason for US Forces being there will diminish.

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By all accounts, Asia is the engine of the 21st Century, and the US is a Pacific nation with legitimate economic, political interests, and yes, military interests in the region, so there will be US presence in Asia for a long time to come. Also, Pax Sinica may be swell for China, but some of her neighbors may feel less enthusiastic about it, and want the US to help them constrain Chinese power.

Blackstone said:

Agreed, but there's also the notion you could criticize and obfuscate data to marginalize outcomes you don't like.

The key takeaway from Pew's poll is the clear theme China's neighbors are nervous about her reemergence, and they want someone to shield them actual, potential, or imaginary harm. At present, that someone happens to be the United States.

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That's an overrated exaggeration about China's neighbors being concern. Does ALL of the people in China's neighbors felt that way ALL the time or is it just the elite rulers? Again it's only the usual 3 suspects (Vietnam, Philipines, and Japan) that are concern about China so called reemergence. Doesn't Japan has territorial disputes with South Korea and Russia? Doesn't the Philipines has one also with Malaysia? And what about Vietnam? The only theme the Pew's poll has to make China look like a territorial monster by cherry picking the nations that has disputes with China.

Blackstone said:

The essence of Pew's poll was to show some of China's most important neighbors (yes, I'm saying Vietnam, ROK, and Japan are relatively more important to China than Cambodia, Laos, and Bhutan) are nervous about her reemergence, and want other great power(s) to balance her. Adding Cambodia, Loas, and all of the 'Stan' countries wouldn't change that fact.

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Important neighbors? They're ALL important! Don't know why you are still sticking to the cherry picking by the Pew poll's as relevance written in stone. This so called American shield to balance China is not even sustainable and is ridiculous to say the least because it automatically assumes the US role is to protect their interests at all costs as the world police. That's not reflective of the reality of the American people today who are sick and tire of wars and conflicts overseas and could care less what some of these other smaller China's neighbors felt or think. Again it's only the media that paints China as the territorial perpetrator because they know getting China to abide by their values and "norms" are wanning.