US military exercises in Mongolia!?!

walter said:

I think most people here are totally overblowing some minor military exercise. Since when does a military exerciese equate to to becoming a member of the "anti-China alliance". That sounds about as stupid as the infamous "axis of evil".

It would be nice to see some other sources and more details before everyone just jumps to conclusions and blows everything way out of proportion.

I couldn't find anything about this year's exercise, but here are some links to articles about last year's exercises:

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seems pretty benign to me, but here i am posting on a China military forum

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I agree with Walter 99.9%. A whole lot of hollerin' about nothing. I bet this "Excersise" involves no more than 200 US troops if that. And the Daiyu islands will not be bombed. Just my opinion.

In addition I could find nothing on this excersise as planned for this year.

Vlad Plasmius said:

This seems to be proof of the fact that we don't give a damn about Taiwan. Taiwan is merely a pawn in a geopolitical game of chess and we'd sacrifice them to protect a rook.

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I'd compare it to a Knight. Nice to have, with relative importance (good geographical location, pro-US government) but easy to sacrifice if things get touch. However, dragging it into a joint military exercise that would hardly benefit Taiwan would be the stupidest thing to do ever. Even stupider than people suggesting that Taiwan send troops to Iraq.

That said, it was a nice analogy, even more so since I am infected with "chessitis".

I don't understand that what's the point for the US to own a military base (assume it wants to) in Mongolia? Since the country is landlock, unless the Russian betray China if the military ambition is toward China and vice versa.

I am so confuse that why usa want to excise with the Monglia and why they want to bombardment to the Diaoyudao ?
I think China can bear the US excise with the Monglia but I am sure China will be enrage by the US bombardment to the Diaoyudao!
I think this is not accord with the US benfit.

Hi Roger

I disagree about your suggestion.

There is a political angle you are overlooking here. The US is clearly trying to encircle and contain China. Mongolia wouldn't be the biggest piece in this chess game, but it could be a base for SOF. More importantly, having one more member sign on to an anti-Chinese alliance would embolden others. Other threads on SDF have mentioned that Chinese neighbors such as Vietnam are unlikely to sign on to such an alliance because they would bear the brunt of the conflict while the US would get all the benefits. If Mongolia is allowed to get away with this with impunity, it would embolden many other similarly situated countries too.

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I hear what you are saying, but I still cannot get too excited about it. I tend to be with Walter and BD Popeye on this one.

I have heard nothing about this from the official Chinese Media and they are not noted for their reticence in displaying outrage when it is called for.

If it is a few instructors arriving on Civil flights, it will hardly constitute a major event. If it is about Mongolia's Peacekeeping in Iraq, there is no beef worth speaking off. If it is about combating Drug Trafficing through Mongolia to Russia, then all sides will support it.

Should the exercises however turn out to have a more mailign objective, then China and Russia can turn them into a farce, disrupting the arrival of US Military Carriers by open and closing the Air Corridors and seriously delaying their permisson to leave afterwards.

As you say, if Mongolia were to become openly hostile to its neighbours, it would be very easy to isolate.

So in summary, I think China and Russia have plenty of room to be; or at least appear, accomodating without losing face.

Generaly speaking, I take most everything I see on the internet with a grain of fine salt. It isint really all that suprising. If China or Russia were to debate it, the U.S, probably on the 'behalf' of Mongolia would say that Mongolia, being the sovern nation it is, has a right to allow military exersises on it's soil. It probably wont even be anything that signifigant, lest they start pushing a tank batalion at the border.

I cant say much about those islands except for: Think of the birds!

SampanViking said:

Hi Roger

I hear what you are saying, but I still cannot get too excited about it. I tend to be with Walter and BD Popeye on this one.

I have heard nothing about this from the official Chinese Media and they are not noted for their reticence in displaying outrage when it is called for.

If it is a few instructors arriving on Civil flights, it will hardly constitute a major event. If it is about Mongolia's Peacekeeping in Iraq, there is no beef worth speaking off. If it is about combating Drug Trafficing through Mongolia to Russia, then all sides will support it.

Should the exercises however turn out to have a more mailign objective, then China and Russia can turn them into a farce, disrupting the arrival of US Military Carriers by open and closing the Air Corridors and seriously delaying their permisson to leave afterwards.

As you say, if Mongolia were to become openly hostile to its neighbours, it would be very easy to isolate.

So in summary, I think China and Russia have plenty of room to be; or at least appear, accomodating without losing face.

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I agree with Sampan. It's best to wait and see what happens. Mongolia
isn't exactly likely to pull the Ghengis Khan stunt again anytime soon.

It may be that America ends up building an airbase which is then handed over
to the Chinese...

Tuesday, 21 March 2006
As two leading Mongolian daily newspapers published Former Secretary of State James Baker came with his son to Mongolia last Saturday and left today. Baker paid his first official visit to Mongolia in 1990 as the Secretary of State. In his second official visit in 1991 it was he who for the first time said “USA is Mongolia's third neighbor”.

This is his third visit but this time he came unofficially. Even though he mentioned that the purpose of this visit is to connect his research center with one of the Mongolian research centers. But yesterday when the former secretary visited Prime Minister Enkbold and the deputy minister Enkhsaikhan, he showed one of the issues of the “Toronto Mail” newspaper which had Minister of Industry and Commerce Mr. Jargalsaikhan’s statement “Mongolia will take 50% of Ivanhoe Mines Company” and said he would like to see Mongolian government and “Ivanhoe Mines” sign a stability contract soon. Mr. Baker’s son is an advisor to Mr. Freedland, a director of “Ivanhoe Mines,” company. Mongolian press suggests that Mr. Baker’s visit wasn’t only to find a research center.

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interesting...maybe gold has been discovered !

also see below

Former Secretary of State Baker

This past week he made his third trip here. He first came to MGL in 1991 while he was still the secretary of state and claims to be the first person to say “USA is Mongolia’s third neighbor.”

During his week stay he said he was looking for a research center to join up in a partnership with his research center in the states. Kind of an odd reason you ask….? Could there be more…??

Turns out his son is one of the top advisors to Ivanhoe Mines, that’s right, one of the richest mining companies in Mongolia. This visit to one of the richest mining companies in Mongolia coincides with the Minister of Industry and Trade B. Jargalsaikhan’s statements that the government should be taking 50% of Ivanhoe Mines. Under the foreign company investment laws the first 4 years in MGL are tax free, after which 4 years of 50% royalties must be paid to the government.

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It's all about the money...

SampanViking said:

Hi Roger
I hear what you are saying, but I still cannot get too excited about it. I tend to be with Walter and BD Popeye on this one.

I have heard nothing about this from the official Chinese Media and they are not noted for their reticence in displaying outrage when it is called for.

If it is a few instructors arriving on Civil flights, it will hardly constitute a major event. If it is about Mongolia's Peacekeeping in Iraq, there is no beef worth speaking off. If it is about combating Drug Trafficing through Mongolia to Russia, then all sides will support it.

Should the exercises however turn out to have a more mailign objective, then China and Russia can turn them into a farce, disrupting the arrival of US Military Carriers by open and closing the Air Corridors and seriously delaying their permisson to leave afterwards.

As you say, if Mongolia were to become openly hostile to its neighbours, it would be very easy to isolate.

So in summary, I think China and Russia have plenty of room to be; or at least appear, accomodating without losing face.

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I have to agree with sampanviking here. It is not a big deal, and China would not get upset about it. But I would have to say that it is very weird for US to conduct exercises in Mongolia, the location is just too sensitive.
I am more worry about Diaoydao. China will be enrage by the US bombardment to the Diaoyudao island, but there are nothing official yet.

I doubt either of these events will really happen. I think that they are just rumours being spread to test what the Chinese and Russians say about them, basically to see how touchy they are and test the limits of much the US can get away with in the area. A good analogy is like when the Chinese hold provocative military exercises in Fujian Province.

The best thing the US could do in Mongolia would be to establish electronic listening posts so they can get right into the heart of China. An installlation like that would be relatively small so it would not cause as much of a furor as say an airbase would and its true purpose could be denied. They could say it is a "Joint Mongolian-American Development Project" or something like that which provides an excuse for all the antennas but doesn't really back you into anything specific.

Finn McCool said:

The best thing the US could do in Mongolia would be to establish electronic listening posts so they can get right into the heart of China. An installlation like that would be relatively small so it would not cause as much of a furor as say an airbase would and its true purpose could be denied. They could say it is a "Joint Mongolian-American Development Project" or something like that which provides an excuse for all the antennas but doesn't really back you into anything specific.

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Actually it has been a rumors for long time that Taiwan have an electronic station in Mongolia for US. I read some details information on news article, but don't know if it is true or not.