East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

One of the biggest resistance that will present from this situation would be how the US military stationed in Okinawa would response.
Do you think they will comply just because PRC drawn a line in the sand?
I don't think so.

SamuraiBlue said:

One of the biggest resistance that will present from this situation would be how the US military stationed in Okinawa would response.
Do you think they will comply just because PRC drawn a line in the sand?
I don't think so.

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this is interesting since the Chinese are just playing chicken, the first to blink loses, i bet Japan still has navy vessels in the islands, and their F-15 will still fly around them i bet they are just waiting to coordinate their response based upon what is going to be the US-Japan strategy.

Hey do you know if the F-15s are now carring the AAM-4 and AAM-5s?

There's zero chance US military would get in the middle of any China-Japan conflict, unless China fires the first shot. Poll after poll show American public weary of wars, so if China doesn't shoot first, then it's doubtful to the extreme any American President would allow the Pentagon to interfere in Diaoyu island face off.

SamuraiBlue said:

One of the biggest resistance that will present from this situation would be how the US military stationed in Okinawa would response.
Do you think they will comply just because PRC drawn a line in the sand?
I don't think so.

Click to expand...

Whether US or Japan comply isn't as important as how the new zone will enable China to cease an initiative in intercepting foreign aircraft. Should US and Japan aircraft not comply with Chinese ADIZ, Chinese can return the favor by non-compliance within those two countries' ADIZ. Whatever response of US and Japan may be, China will respond back to the two countries the same way. Essentially, China is feeding US and Japan their own medicines, and China has been doing this ever since she sent coast guard to patrol Diaoyudao.

Blackstone said:

There's zero chance US military would get in the middle of any China-Japan conflict, unless China fires the first shot. Poll after poll show American public weary of wars, so if China doesn't shoot first, then it's doubtful to the extreme any American President would allow the Pentagon to interfere in Diaoyu island face off.

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That is not accurate, the US has several airbases in Japan, in Japan some people are not so happy about those bases, if the US would not intervene the reaction will increase the opposition to those bases plus the Chinese are trying to pull back the US ability to operate in the area, so no, from the military point the Measure is also against the US air forces, plus the Japanese have their navy vessels in the Senkaku, so even if China claims the ID zone that does not matter since the japanese ships are there and the Japanese won`t let their ships without air cover.

So i bet the Japanese will continue to fly there specially the F-2s with their anti-ship missiles

MiG-29 said:

this is interesting since the Chinese are just playing chicken, the first to blink loses, i bet Japan still has navy vessels in the islands, and their F-15 will still fly around them i bet they are just waiting to coordinate their response based upon what is going to be the US-Japan strategy.

Hey do you know if the F-15s are now carring the AAM-4 and AAM-5s?

Click to expand...

China isn't just playing chicken, she's playing the long game by establishing a degree of control over Diaoyu area with more and more assets and platforms. From her own leaders, China still need 30 to 40 years of peace for internal development. However, there's no reason why she can't defend her territorial interests. The key for China is to contest Diaoyu island and put tension on Japan, without allowing it to create a situation where the US is dragged into the conflict. Delicate kabuki dances for all three parties.

SamuraiBlue said:

One of the biggest resistance that will present from this situation would be how the US military stationed in Okinawa would response.
Do you think they will comply just because PRC drawn a line in the sand?
I don't think so.

Click to expand...

You are either wilfully distorting the nature of an ADIZ to set up a straw man argument, or you don't know what an ADIZ is.

An ADIZ is not national airspace and any aircraft from any nation can fly any way they want in one. The US military is free to disregard China's ADIZ all they want, it just means China will scramble fighters to intercept and escort any American (or any foreign) aircraft that enters its ADIZ and don't follow the rules and procedures established.

Its not a problem for the Americans in any way, shape or form. It is a problem for Japan OTOH, because if they send aircraft over the Diaoyu Islands without following the rules for China's ADIZ, the PLAAF will scramble fighters to intercept those Japanese aircraft long before they get near 12nm of the Diaoyu Islands, and if the Japanese aircraft flies within 12nm of the Diaoyu Islands, so will the escorting PLAAF fighters.

The Japanese and the western media can whine and spin all they want, but the hard fact is, those Chinese fighters will only fly within 12nm of the Diaoyu islands because the Japanese aircraft they were monitoring did the same, and not being idiots, the Japanese should have recognised and expected that to happen.

This presents Japan with a very hard choice. They can try to call China's bluff and continue air patrols over the Diaoyu islands, but it doesn't look like China is bluffing, in which case it will set a precedent for PLAAF fighters over the Diaoyu islands. Or Japan can stop all air patrols over the Diaoyu islands themselves.

I am, of course ruling out the Japanese actual wanting to start a shooting war. But with the balance of power the way they are, if the Japanese starts a shooting war with China over the Diaoyu islands, the Japanese will loose, so it would be a pretty stupid thing for them to do, which is why I am ruling it out.

Blackstone said:

There's zero chance US military would get in the middle of any China-Japan conflict, unless China fires the first shot. Poll after poll show American public weary of wars, so if China doesn't shoot first, then it's doubtful to the extreme any American President would allow the Pentagon to interfere in Diaoyu island face off.

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Well that is going to be a problem since the US Air Force has a massive installation in Okinawa in which they fly in and out of everyday flying through the mentioned air space some no doubt will be on classified mission in which they would require radio silence.
The ADIZ is challenging in how the US military operates in the entire east Asian region as much as challenging Japan over the islands.

Blackstone said:

China isn't just playing chicken, she's playing the long game by establishing a degree of control over Diaoyu area with more and more assets and platforms. From her own leaders, China still need 30 to 40 years of peace for internal development. However, there's no reason why she can't defend her territorial interests. The key for China is to contest Diaoyu island and put tension on Japan, without allowing it to create a situation where the US is dragged into the conflict. Delicate kabuki dances for all three parties.

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The Chinese are playing Chicken, because the Japanese have ships there near the dispute islands, and Japan said they will shot down any drone trespassing the area.

Obviously this does not go well internally, it is ilogic to say aircraft can not pass but Japanese ships are there, China wants to try to look strong, and they just raised the odds conflict but the Japanese navy still is in the Senkaku, so obviously the JASDF won`t let those ships unguarded, since they need air cover, but Japan won`t rush up, they need to coordinate a common american-japanese policyto play the next card of Chicken

MiG-29 said:

That is not accurate, the US has several airbases in Japan, in Japan some people are not so happy about those bases, if the US would not intervene the reaction will increase the opposition to those bases plus the Chinese are trying to pull back the US ability to operate in the area, so no, from the military point the Measure is also against the US air forces, plus the Japanese have their navy vessels in the Senkaku, so even if China claims the ID zone that does not matter since the japanese ships are there and the Japanese won`t let their ships without air cover.

So i bet the Japanese will continue to fly there specially the F-2s with their anti-ship missiles

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If Japan fires on China first, there's no chance the US would use her military against China. Obama can't make the case to the America public we need to help Japan (the aggressor) fight China (our largest trading partner and a nuclear-armed state) over some rocks Japan took from China in 1895. That just isn't going to fly, because Obama isn't Putin and Diaoyu isn't Georgia. I do, however, believe we will help Japan with intelligence, military advice, and other non-kinetic means.