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Re: Japan's military build-up

thunderchief said:

Israel got their nukes from United States . Not necessarily complete device , but blueprints for sure .

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"Not necessarily complete devices," "blue prints for sure."

Sorry thunder, every single bit of that is pure conjecture.

All we know...and not even that "for sure"...is that they have them. There are many rumors and tales of how they developed them, and even of tests that occurred with South African help and what not.

But NONE of that is known.

montyp165 said:

...this time I'd say the Russians would still mop the floor with the Japanese. The JMSDF is like a traditional katana, a very sharp edge but very brittle, of which both the Russians and Chinese are well aware of, and thus take into their strategic calculations.

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I think that you will find that the JMSDF is far less brittle than you believe. And at the current time, the idea that the Russians would mop the floor with them is simply out of the question.

When you look at the condition of the vessels, their maintenance, and their stockpiles, as well as the training that is condutced with them, everything indicates that it would more likely be precisely the other way around...though I personnally believe it would be hard fought either way.

The only way that changes is if the Russians were willing to go nuclear, which over the islands we might expect to see a dispute over, would be absolutely insane. And whatever else the Russian government is...they are not insane.

The pure numbers of major surface combatants are:

Russia Red Banner Fleet (Pacific Fleet):
1 x Slava Class CG
3 x Udaloy I class DDGs
1 x Sovermenny Class DDG

That's it.

They are better off in subs:

3 x Oscar SSGNs
3 x Akula ! SSNs
8 x Kilo Class SSKs

The JMSDF, on the other hand, has:

2 x Atago Class AEGIS DDGs
4 x Kongo Class AEGIS DDGs
2 x Akizuki Class DDGs
5 x Takinami Class DDGs
9 x Murasame Class DDGs
2 X Hyuga Class CVHs
2 x Shirane Class DDHs
2 x Hatakazi Class DDGs

The JMSDF has 16 very modern and very capable SSKs available.

So, the Japanese have a 28 to 5 advantage in major surface combatants on hand. And a 16 to 15 advantage in subs.

The Japanese equipment is far newer, with far more reliable and exercised electronics. The JMSDF trains regularly and hard, particularly in ASW operations, while the red Banner Fleet rarely leaves port.

Yes, the JMSDF is a sharp sword, but it is not at all "brittle,." To the contrary, it is made of some very hard and tempered steel.

This does not mean such a confrontation would be "easy" for the JMSDF, but it would certainly not be a case of the Red Banner Fleet mopping the floor with them at all.

Re: Japan's military build-up

Jeff Head said:

Simple, equation, they do not need to.

There is absolutely no doubt that they could if they wanted, but why spend monies on something that is readily available to you from your closest ally?

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Because allies don't last forever. China and America were allies once during WWII.

Jeff Head said:

Same thing with a nuclear deterrent. They have the capability and could do so in short order...in fact I would be very surprised if they did not, in secret, already have a stockpile of their own weapons just like Israel.

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Before or after a suppose enemy nuke them? Remember it only takes minutes for an ICBM to hit it's targets.

Jeff Head said:

But, in the mean time, they do not need to openly do it because there is an umbrella over them from the U.S. and they provide a military buffer in terms of very effective ASW and maritime patrol, and a very stable and large trade partner in return.

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Where's the buffer for against the DF-21D?

So you are suggesting that the US is simply protecting the terrorists and perpetrators of genocide to live and die in Japan that commit such atrocities without facing any justice? All for trying to contain "Communism" (China)?

Re: Japan's military build-up

TerraN_EmpirE said:

Leave the dead to their peace. They have earned it.

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Nope, sorry but too many victims ghosts are screaming for justice for what the Japanese military had done to them. And believe me the numbers are a lot bigger than the Holocaust. So where are all the Hollywood movies depicting this injustice done by Japan or better yet the demands from UN? There is NO honor in raping women, and killing children with your bayonets for fun.

Re: Japan's military build-up

Jeff Head said:

Sorry thunder, every single bit of that is pure conjecture.

All we know...and not even that "for sure"...is that they have them. There are many rumors and tales of how they developed them, and even of tests that occurred with South African help and what not.

But NONE of that is known.

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Officially we don't know nothing . Unofficially , Israel has hundreds of nuclear weapons with pretty good yield (20-50 kt , maybe even 100 kt) , small enough to arm missile warheads . And that is a big problem in nuclear weapons development .Every country that made them on their own first had to pass trough a phase were those weapons were big and crude . Every one , including US , USSR , China , France , UK to a lesser extent because they got help from US , India , and now Pakistan and North Korea . You cannot do that without tests (not one test , tests ! ) , and beside that rumored test with SAR Israel didn't perform any of them . So , only logical assumption is that they got their nukes from someone - namely US .

Japan would not get same technology , so they would need precious few years to develop compact enough nuclear weapon to be usable in practical purpose .

Jeff Head said:

The JMSDF, on the other hand, has:

2 x Atago Class AEGIS DDGs
4 x Kongo Class AEGIS DDGs
2 x Akizuki Class DDGs
5 x Takinami Class DDGs
9 x Murasame Class DDGs
2 X Hyuga Class CVHs
2 x Shirane Class DDHs
2 x Hatakazi Class DDGs

The JMSDF has 16 very modern and very capable SSKs available.

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As we can see from your list , JMSDF was and still is over-sized ASW force . They rely on USN to provide air cover . Without it , they would have a hard time moving from land-based fighter cover . And yes , in a conflict with Russia without US help you can count on Russians tracking them with Tu-95s and attacking them with long range ASMs if they venture too far .

Re: Japan's military build-up

Jeff Head said:

"Not necessarily complete devices," "blue prints for sure."

Sorry thunder, every single bit of that is pure conjecture.

All we know...and not even that "for sure"...is that they have them. There are many rumors and tales of how they developed them, and even of tests that occurred with South African help and what not.

But NONE of that is known.

I think that you will find that the JMSDF is far less brittle than you believe. And at the current time, the idea that the Russians would mop the floor with them is simply out of the question.

When you look at the condition of the vessels, their maintenance, and their stockpiles, as well as the training that is condutced with them, everything indicates that it would more likely be precisely the other way around...though I personnally believe it would be hard fought either way.

The only way that changes is if the Russians were willing to go nuclear, which over the islands we might expect to see a dispute over, would be absolutely insane. And whatever else the Russian government is...they are not insane.

The pure numbers of major surface combatants are:

Russia Red Banner Fleet (Pacific Fleet):
1 x Slava Class CG
3 x Udaloy I class DDGs
1 x Sovermenny Class DDG

That's it.

They are better off in subs:

3 x Oscar SSGNs
3 x Akula ! SSNs
8 x Kilo Class SSKs

The JMSDF, on the other hand, has:

2 x Atago Class AEGIS DDGs
4 x Kongo Class AEGIS DDGs
2 x Akizuki Class DDGs
5 x Takinami Class DDGs
9 x Murasame Class DDGs
2 X Hyuga Class CVHs
2 x Shirane Class DDHs
2 x Hatakazi Class DDGs

The JMSDF has 16 very modern and very capable SSKs available.

So, the Japanese have a 28 to 5 advantage in major surface combatants on hand. And a 16 to 15 advantage in subs.

The Japanese equipment is far newer, with far more reliable and exercised electronics. The JMSDF trains regularly and hard, particularly in ASW operations, while the red Banner Fleet rarely leaves port.

Yes, the JMSDF is a sharp sword, but it is not at all "brittle,." To the contrary, it is made of some very hard and tempered steel.

This does not mean such a confrontation would be "easy" for the JMSDF, but it would certainly not be a case of the Red Banner Fleet mopping the floor with them at all.

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This only works on the assumption that combat operations would only ever last a few weeks at best, but the very moment things start taking as long as fighting in Libya or Syria things would turn pear shaped very quickly for the Japanese, especially as aviation and nuke subs from other forces arrive in theater and replacement units come online, and would only get worse as time passes.

Re: Japan's military build-up

Jeff Head said:

"Not necessarily complete devices," "blue prints for sure."

I think that you will find that the JMSDF is far less brittle than you believe. And at the current time, the idea that the Russians would mop the floor with them is simply out of the question.

When you look at the condition of the vessels, their maintenance, and their stockpiles, as well as the training that is condutced with them, everything indicates that it would more likely be precisely the other way around...though I personnally believe it would be hard fought either way.

The only way that changes is if the Russians were willing to go nuclear, which over the islands we might expect to see a dispute over, would be absolutely insane. And whatever else the Russian government is...they are not insane.

The pure numbers of major surface combatants are:

Russia Red Banner Fleet (Pacific Fleet):
1 x Slava Class CG
3 x Udaloy I class DDGs
1 x Sovermenny Class DDG

That's it.

They are better off in subs:

3 x Oscar SSGNs
3 x Akula ! SSNs
8 x Kilo Class SSKs

The JMSDF, on the other hand, has:

2 x Atago Class AEGIS DDGs
4 x Kongo Class AEGIS DDGs
2 x Akizuki Class DDGs
5 x Takinami Class DDGs
9 x Murasame Class DDGs
2 X Hyuga Class CVHs
2 x Shirane Class DDHs
2 x Hatakazi Class DDGs

The JMSDF has 16 very modern and very capable SSKs available.

So, the Japanese have a 28 to 5 advantage in major surface combatants on hand. And a 16 to 15 advantage in subs.

The Japanese equipment is far newer, with far more reliable and exercised electronics. The JMSDF trains regularly and hard, particularly in ASW operations, while the red Banner Fleet rarely leaves port.

Yes, the JMSDF is a sharp sword, but it is not at all "brittle,." To the contrary, it is made of some very hard and tempered steel.

This does not mean such a confrontation would be "easy" for the JMSDF, but it would certainly not be a case of the Red Banner Fleet mopping the floor with them at all.

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You can always compare on paper how many ships Japan has compared to Russia or China and what class of ships etc. But you forgot to take in account the political motivation of each country towards conflict. Japan's government under Abe may seem outwards aggressive but the common Japanese people have nothing against China and most of them do not want a skirmish with China not to mention a conflict .

CCP along with common Chinese people have a deep hatred of Japanese people, which is beyond political and more social. This means any conflict involving China and Japan would draw massive public support in China and not so much in Japan. If Japan and China were to have a conflict (not skirmish) then CCP would have to end Japan no matter what because the very existence of CCP's position in China is at risk. This is the reason Japan cannot win against China no matter what the scenario is.

Japan's navy is very well built, it does have excellent ships and good training. But training does not equal wartime experience. Japan may have a newer navy than Russia but can it actually defeat combined Russian forces? I don't even think the US itself can say that the Russian Navy is an easy foe especially considering the geographical situation of Japan to Russia.

Re: Japan's military build-up

I do notice a lot of forumites here tend to underestimate the capabilities of many second-tier powers (of which China is one among many) naval or otherwise. Japan's navy, I'm not going to be euphemistic and call it a self-defense force, is one of the most advanced in the world, with a well balanced mix of types, and with above average training. Good luck if you think anyone other than the US navy can readily defeat them in an all-out-war.

Re: Japan's military build-up

thunderchief said:

Israel got their nukes from United States . Not necessarily complete device , but blueprints for sure . Otherwise , there is no way on God's green earth they could produce small enough and powerful enough weapons without tests , and there is no way such small country could perform tests without being detected .

On the other hand , Japan was never so close ally to US , nor was Japanese lobby so strong as Israeli to expect same treatment . Not to mention that Japan pursuing nuclear weapons would raise alarm in China , Russia , North Korea and probably even in the South Korea . It could go so far that they may unite to militarily confront Japan .

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It were the French who helped Israel develop nuclear weapons. France had started the nuclear weapons development as a joint venture with Germany and Italy just a few years after WWII ended. Germany was then still for decades to come in the grip of technocrats and old patricians with strong connections to the Nazi era explains the German society's branch of Hippies and left wing terrorists and their conflict with these Nazi-technocrats in power and part of the financial elite that was still rich from . This background information on Germany helps to understand why the French under de Gaulle (after much political turmoil) cheated their Italian and German partners by not giving their final share of information on nuclear armament into the joint information exchange pool. The US was thus able to integrate Germany into their joint nuclear partnership program and satisfy the urge of some of their military circles for such weapons. Joint nuclear partnership is the American way of sharing nuclear weapons.
The US has not been proven to ever have had any hand in giving away information about the construction of nuclear bomb devices. It was spied upon the US laboratories, but this is not voluntary transfer. By contrast France armed Israel and Israel armed South Africa and the Soviets armed China.

There are no reasons against South Korea and Japan participating in a joint nuclear partnership with the USA. And if the US was really afraid of a major war in this area than an extension of nuclear partnership to Taiwan would elevate the violence threshold enough for all sides to be well prepared. As this is clearly not the case, you are overrating the material on military build up and potential for conflict from a US POV.

Concerning this hatred, hatred and hatred issue. "Kingdom of Heavens" is a great film on that issue. The Japanese, who would fight today are not the same guys, who commited the crimes, nor would any Chinese fighting today be a victim of such a crime. You can however argue about how the Japanese deal currently with the attrocities commited during that war.

Re: Japan's military build-up

Equation said:

Nope, sorry but too many victims ghosts are screaming for justice for what the Japanese military had done to them. And believe me the numbers are a lot bigger than the Holocaust. So where are all the Hollywood movies depicting this injustice done by Japan or better yet the demands from UN? There is NO honor in raping women, and killing children with your bayonets for fun.

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Okay you win so we are going to round up every surviving Japanese war vet shackle them and fly them all to China. I can see it now a handful of men all shriveled up unable to move because their ninety, a hundred plus year old frames could not stand weight of the chains. A quarter would not survive take off. Prison would kill half, And then the glories of the trials.. A fifty something judge asks for a plea only to have the old man ask him if he is his son come to visit. Yes indeed the justice of it all. You might get maybe one or two to survive more then ten years. But wait still more over turn the head stones of the dead! Yes No rest for them!

Really what is the point? You plead for the screaming dead. I am sorry but its over. The people who wronged those screaming dead are themselves dead and dying. If their is a after life all you can do is hope as they pass that those screams haunt these old and dying men until the end of days. But really its all sentiment.
You want a Hollywood movie? Find a writer and a producer. You want the UN to act good luck! You would get a movie before the UN would budge.
So what then? You go after their children? And then what? Do you teach your children to go after them to? And they teach theirs and one day the screams of the dead are heard a new as you children's children take a Bayonet to their children's children's children. And then what? That new generation teaches hate of your kin to their and the screams of their dead are loud and fresh well your sob for the lessons of their death was lost.

Re: Japan's military build-up

TerraN_EmpirE said:

Okay you win so we are going to round up every surviving Japanese war vet shackle them and fly them all to China. I can see it now a handful of men all shriveled up unable to move because their ninety, a hundred plus year old frames could not stand weight of the chains. A quarter would not survive take off. Prison would kill half, And then the glories of the trials.. A fifty something judge asks for a plea only to have the old man ask him if he is his son come to visit. Yes indeed the justice of it all. You might get maybe one or two to survive more then ten years. But wait still more over turn the head stones of the dead! Yes No rest for them!

Really what is the point? You plead for the screaming dead. I am sorry but its over. The people who wronged those screaming dead are themselves dead and dying. If their is a after life all you can do is hope as they pass that those screams haunt these old and dying men until the end of days. But really its all sentiment.
You want a Hollywood movie? Find a writer and a producer. You want the UN to act good luck! You would get a movie before the UN would budge.
So what then? You go after their children? And then what? Do you teach your children to go after them to? And they teach theirs and one day the screams of the dead are heard a new as you children's children take a Bayonet to their children's children's children. And then what? That new generation teaches hate of your kin to their and the screams of their dead are loud and fresh well your sob for the lessons of their death was lost.

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And they're still going after old former Nazi prison guards, so what's the difference? Old or not shouldn't have done the crime in the first place. I am sorry but you seem to be in denial in the facts the Japanese started it and the fact they haven't even touch on the subject on their children's school history books says a lot about their morality. How hard is it to admit that you were wrong on that war? Is it really ALL Sentiment when I say you can forget about Pearl Harbor and 9/11?