Chinese Economics Thread

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
That's not what you said.

You said "Or just like at Copenhagen every country but those of the West was demanded to restrict themselves."

Which is flat out wrong. You are backpedaling here.

Post included for your reference.

How is that a denial I wasn't generalizing? You're seeing something that's not there just to make your argument.
 

Maggern

Junior Member
Although i don't appreciate the tone i preux' posts here, i must agree with his points. I'm sure you can find some obscure media article presenting facts in the way assassins mace suggest, but the idea that the west is some kind of monolithic bloc of anti-china sentiment, where every article is written with full intent to present a negative view of china, and often by order of the government, is quite ridiculous. It's tantamount to saying all of Asia is one bloc, including everything from russia to china, Japan, Iran, Thailand etc. I will say that even americans are guilty at overlooking the complexity of the west, as I've met many that considered europe pretty much similar within, with variation between countries only true insofar as there are differences between states in the us. Also a ridiculous idea. I see assassins mace's view in so many chinese articles. I guess it boils down to lack of understanding.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
When the Western countries put all the blame of the failure of Copenhagen on China, they're speaking as a block. There were no one country from the West that opposed this. These talks are negotiated long before the actually meeting. So they know the outcome before it even starts which is why the spin to blame China. The US representive, Todd Stern, was from the start blaming China setting up the conspiracy. The fact is the US Congress was never going to pass anything from Copenhagen because of domestic politics so they needed a distraction which was to blame China. There was a concensus by Western countries to do this. There was no Western country that was the exception. They went along with it even though they knew the US Congress wasn't going to pass any legislation that restricted American business. To blame China was a conspiracy by Western countries. Demanding the rest of the world to restrict themselves more than the developed world was intentional because they knew the emerging economies would not accept this. Then they could blame China instead of going through the motions of hammering out a sensible deal to which in the end was going to fall apart anyway because of domestic politics in the US was never going to ratify it and thus all eyes would be on the US to blame. At the Copenhagen summit China was not the biggest polluter per capita. And it didn't account that a significant portion of China's pollution came from the critic countries that outsourced their pollution to China. Because this was not factored in and China was blamed, the West did speak as a block especially since every other country was expected to restrict themselves more than any developed country who are the source of most pollution. The biggest advocates for the environment didn't pull the trigger and they colluded to blame China to hide that shame. The US and the West did not make this much noise about the environment when the US was No.1 polluter. It's only when China spewed out one more carbon particle spec in total than the US is when it became a big deal. And the West knows this which is why they waited to make the environmment a big deal when only they could villify someone who wasn't Western. If you took all the countries together that weren't expected to restrict themselves, they pollute more in all categories. So expecting the rest of the world to comply to more restrictive pollution controls weren't going to do anything for the environment.

As regard to bailing out Europe... The countries that are opposed are only against it because they don't want to submit to Chinese concessions not opposed to be bailed out. I don't see any Western mainstream entity from people, government, or the media making a case that China shouldn't bail out Europe. They're just opposed to China getting anything out of it.

And I love hypocrisy of the accusation of generalization. As mentioned many times before the BBC conducts an annual world opinion poll of perception by countries of other countries. The worst opinions of China all are highest in the West. The most favorable opinions are from the developed world yet everytime the BBC spins it that the world has a negative opinion of China. Generalization is a plus when it works in your favor but not when it doesn't. That's hypocrisy.
 
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Equation

Lieutenant General
Most of Western media hates China, but many Western people don't. I can say the same for Chinese people view on Western people. In fact more people are interested in China nowadays, all thanks to the media that keeps China on the spotlight regardless if the news are for good will or ill. I'm finding the rhetoric rather more interesting to read and how it effects the audience and to what level of education and upbringings does it has upon the readers.
 

Preux

Junior Member
How is that a denial I wasn't generalizing? You're seeing something that's not there just to make your argument.

I see you carefully misquoted what I wrote. Here, let me do it for you.


I did. Just like that child that was ran over by a car in China reported as if the Western media were the ones to bring this attention or else it would've been ignored. Oh what generalizing of the Chinese people as one. Or just like at Copenhagen every country but those of the West was demanded to restrict themselves.


To which I replied:

Anyway, your remark on the Copenhagen Summit was a bold-faced lie. You can argue all you want about the morality of the restrictions due to the developed countries' earlier industrialization (and I think they have a point), but to claim that 'the West' did not demand restrictions of themselves is just factually incorrect. Australia, New Zealand, the EU and even America all made emission cut commitments. Hell, do you remember the ETS? That's a European initiative.

And then you said:

And yes the Western countries demanded everyone else restrict more than for themselves. And I wouldn't call the US and EU trying to punish China making alterntive energy technology cheaper as a sign they want to save the environment.

That is a very clear case of backpedaling.

You can concentrate on the 'generalize' issue all you want, to which I have only one thing to say.

Today, 02:14 AM

Last edited by AssassinsMace; Today at 02:53 AM.

It is my distinct recollection that you in fact denied it. If you didn't, then I misread you and I accept that you did not say it and apologize.

That does not however mean you can ignore every other point I made and that you are therefore right about the backpedaling.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
I see you carefully misquoted what I wrote. Here, let me do it for you.




To which I replied:



And then you said:



That is a very clear case of backpedaling.

You can concentrate on the 'generalize' issue all you want, to which I have only one thing to say.





It is my distinct recollection that you in fact denied it. If you didn't, then I misread you and I accept that you did not say it and apologize.

That does not however mean you can ignore every other point I made and that you are therefore right about the backpedaling.


You charged I was generalizing and I said I did. How is that backpedaling? I cannot very much deny something I admiited I was doing. You did misread everything. I gladly generalize just like China is generalized as slave and child labor or everyone eats dog. Like I said the West likes generalizing when it works for them but when it doesn't someone hypocritically cries foul.
 
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lostsoul

Junior Member
You charged I was generalizing and I said I did. How is that backpedaling? I cannot very much deny something I admiited I was doing. You did misread everything. I gladly generalize just like China is generalized as slave and child labor or everyone eats dog. Like I said the West likes generalizing when it works for them but when it doesn't someone hypocritically cries foul.

QFT.

Also there is No conclusive evidence for AGW.
 

solarz

Brigadier
There can be no doubt that Western Media is actively biased toward China in the reporting of its news. The reasons for this bias is debatable, but the fact that it exists is undeniable.

QFT.

Also there is No conclusive evidence for AGW.

Do you deny that the presence of gases such as CO2 and Methane in the atmosphere works to trap more heat from solar radiation?

Do you deny that human activity has increased the amount of those gases released into the atmosphere?
 

Player 0

Junior Member
Here's an article about the changing state of Chinese agriculture, a critical aspect of the economy that deserves waaaay more attention on this thread than it gets, 50% of the population is employed in this sector despite the fact that it contributes something like 10% to GDP.

According to this article the problem isn't lack of arable land as it is lack of large scale corporate financed farms to support them.

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More domestic and international companies are investing in agricultural industries
With more than 1.3 billion people to feed and expectations that demand for grain, fruit, vegetable, seafood, meat, dairy and beverage products will increase at least 10 percent every year for the next five years, China's government is placing a high premium on developing agricultural industries.
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But challenges are mounting. The government must not only feed a soaring population but meeting the growing need for safer, higher quality foods. Inflation is rampant. Last year, food prices rose 11.8 percent from a year earlier, leading to a 5.4-percent growth in the consumer price index, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Food consumption in the country also rose, with food imports up 30 percent to about $95 billion (76 billion euros) last year, compared with just $12 billion in 2001, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.
Fortunately there is an increasing number of international and domestic companies, some of which until recently were never in the agriculture business, that have begun to expand their investments in livestock breeding, dairy production, creating sweeteners and manufacturing other food products to meet the soaring domestic demand.

According to a report on investments in China's agricultural industries by Deloitte China, total investment in the nation's agricultural industries reached $2.56 billion between 2006 and 2011. The figure in 2011 alone was $1.1 billion.
The Deloitte report says food prices in China will continue to rise because of higher labor costs and poorer farm production, further taking a bite out of consumers' wallets.
Faced with those two major factors, foreign and domestic companies are finding major opportunities to expand their businesses in China. Nestle S.A., the world's largest nutrition, health and wellness company, is one prime example.
Founded and headquartered in Switzerland, the company sees major potential in the dairy market and vows to increase the quantity and quality of its milk produced in China in light of numerous milk scandals over the past few years.
Roland Decorvet, chairman and CEO of Nestle (China) Ltd, says the company currently has three dairy plants in Shuangcheng, Heilongjiang province; Ergun, Inner Mongolia autonomous region; and Qingdao, Shandong province.
Last month, Nestle signed an agreement with a county government of Old Barag Banner in the Inner Mongolia autonomous region to build a new dairy farm. The county government confirmed that it has signed a memorandum of understanding with Nestle to build a 2,000-cow dairy farm by the end of 2013 near the Hulunbuir grasslands, not far from Nestle's dairy plant in Ergun that was built in 2007.
According to the agreement, Nestle will not have ownership of the farm, but will help in operations. The company will collect milk from more than 25,000 farmers and herdsmen on its farm in Ergun to use in its dairy products, such as milk powders and creams.
Decorvet says the economic environment is changing quickly in China and in order to ensure the quality of its milk products, the company's dairy farmers will be given further training in safety standards.
In January, Nestle announced it would invest 2.5 billion yuan ($392 million, 316 million euros) over the next five years to train diary farm managers. The money will also be spent to operate its dairy farm in Shuangcheng and improve the milk quality there.
"We are moving toward more middle and large size farms. We are building a large dairy farming institute in Shuangcheng and we will teach the farmers to manage cows up to 5,000 as a business model," Decorvet says.
Nestle also has 32 factories in China producing instant coffee products, baby food products and bottled water with a total number of 45,000 employees.
Cargill Inc, the world's largest animal nutrition and agricultural products manufacturer that is based in the United States, has also begun expanding its investments in China.
Robert Aspell, president of Cargill Investment (China) Ltd, says the company intends to invest more in the sweetener business in Dongguan, in South China's Guangdong province.
"There is still a big supply gap for sweeteners in the Chinese market. The sweeteners will support China's needs for producing confectionaries, coffee creamers, beers, dairy products and beverages," Aspell says. "The sweetener products will be in small packages to meet the government's requirement on food safety."
In February, Cargill established a sweetener manufacturing plant in Luohe in Henan province in a joint venture with longtime partner Coca-Cola Co. With a combined investment of $86 million, the manufacturing facility is expected to be operational in December.
Coca-Cola recently added $200 million to support its expansion in China's central region and invested another $4.7 million to establish an automated warehouse in Luohe.
Aspell says that any agricultural investments must be adapted to regulations in China.
"In term of investments in agriculture, we see it continuing in China. But the agricultural world is not flat in terms of access to finance, land ownership, technology and information, simply because the demands in different geographical locations are different," he says.
Cargill (China) also has a feed factory in Dongguan with an investment that exceeds $200 million. The company plans to produce more agricultural products such as processed palm oil and creams this year.
Cargill's global sales and revenues reached $119.5 billion in 2011 with $2.69 billion in profit. The company's investments in China accounted for 15 percent of its total global investments last year. Cargill (China) currently has more than 7,000 employees across China at 47 plants.
One surprising turn of events from the government's plan to attract more companies to invest in agriculture has been the rise of corporations which previously had no hand in food products.
Wuhan Iron and Steel (Group) Co, or WISCO, is one of China's largest iron and steel makers and is based in Central China's Hubei province. Deng Qilin, general manager of WISCO, says that because the company has been affected by a shortage of iron ore and rising costs in logistics, it is putting more eggs in the agricultural basket. With a focus on wine, pork and vegetables, the company's highest aim is to build a farm that can hold 10,000 pigs in Wuhan this year.
"Our company is at an inflection point in the market," Deng says. "Even though steel production in China has increased over recent years, the margin (of profit) has slumped to less than 3 percent, far below the 6 percent registered by the industrial sector."
Deng adds that "the price of one kilogram of steel thread is cheaper than 200 grams of pork" and that with "a growing need for agricultural products our goal is to gain more money from agricultural sectors".
Since last year, WISCO has increased investment in non-steel businesses such as catering services and trading. This sector has created nearly 2.1 billion yuan in profit, accounting for 60 percent of the company's annual profit. Deng says this line of business has helped the company gain a 17.4-percent growth in profit.
The steelmaker is investing 39 billion yuan in non-steel businesses this year. WISCO will build vegetable and pig farms in Wuhan. Deng says the company is also ready to tap the agricultural logistics business by providing services to urban residents such as deliveries of vegetables and possibly meats.
"Over the next five years, the non-steel business will take 30 percent of company's output value. The agriculture investment would become a big part of it," Deng says.
Another Chinese company, Legend Holdings Ltd, parent company of the world's second-largest PC maker Lenovo Group Ltd, is also keeping a close eye on the nation's agricultural industries.
The company established its agricultural business department in 2010. The department's first target are fruits. It has established a Beijing-based fruit trade company, which set up two subsidiaries to grow kiwis in Shaanxi's Zhouzhi county and Henan's Xixia county.
"There are certain risks in the agricultural businesses," says Liu Chuanzhi, chairman of Legend Holdings and founder of Lenovo. "A good company should be able to make specific plans in analyzing the market and try it best to build up a brand. We have a long-term plan for the future investment in agriculture, but we are not in the hurry to rush it."
Liu says since consumers in China are focused on food safety, companies should realize that a developed industry chain must regulate the production of high-quality foods.
[email protected]
(China Daily 06/08/2012 page12)
 

Norfolk

Junior Member
VIP Professional
Mixed feelings about huge agri-food conglomerates moving in, especially Nestle and Cargill, but perhaps it's necessary; interesting that WISCO (et al.) is diversifying into the agri-food industry.

Some news:

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, AFP, The South China Morning Post, 9 June, 2012:

China’s inflation rate eased to 3.0 per cent in May, its lowest level since June 2010, official data showed on Saturday, giving the government further room to loosen credit to boost flagging growth.

The country’s consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.0 per cent year-on-year in May compared with 3.4 per cent in April and 3.6 per cent in March, the National Bureau of Statistics said.

The rate was lower than market expectations of a 3.2 per cent rise, according to a poll of 15 economists by Dow Jones Newswires.

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, Reuters, The South China Morning Post, 9 June, 2012:

Car sales in China rose 22.6 per cent in May from a year earlier, extending the double-digit gain made the previous month, as new models were introduced at April’s Beijing auto show started to arrive in the showrooms.

The strong rebound by Toyota and Honda, which both suffered severe shortages of parts a year ago after northern Japan’s devastating earthquake and tsunami in March last year, also pushed up the monthly tally.

Demand is likely to remain solid if Beijing renews some of the policy incentives that helped propel China beyond the US as the world’s largest car market by volume in 2009, industry observers say.

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, AFP, The South China Morning Post, 9 June, 2012:

China's industrial output grew at a slower-than-expected 9.6 per cent year-on-year in May, a faster clip than the previous month but still near three-year-lows, the government said on Saturday.

While production from the country’s millions of factories and workshops was stronger than the 9.3 per cent expansion seen in April, it was still lower than forecasts of a 9.9 per cent gain in a Dow Jones Newswires poll of 14 economists.

“The turning point hasn’t come yet. Economic growth is still declining,” Citigroup economist Shuang Ding told Dow Jones Newswires.

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, AP, The South China Morning Post, 9 June, 2012:

Stocks fell on Wall Street on Friday as investors looked toward upcoming economic reports in China and the US and decided they were likely to be disappointed.

The Chinese government was giving signs that data coming out over the weekend won’t be good. The US reported a narrower trade deficit in April, but only because a big drop in imports offset a decline in exports.

<snip>

Chinese leaders have been showing signs of urgency ahead of May trade and industrial data due out this weekend that might be even weaker than earlier pessimistic forecasts. The Chinese government cut interest rates for the first time in four years and has reduced petrol and diesel prices for the second time in a month.

Over the long run, that will put more money in the pockets of Chinese consumers, but in the short run it’s a sign that the government is worried about growth.

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, by Sandy Li, Thomas Chan and Ng Kang-chung, The South China Morning Post, 9 June, 2012:

Mainlanders' love affair with Hong Kong property is cooling, with some either defaulting on home purchases or being forced to sell at a loss as mainland credit tightening and growing bearishness about the sector start to bite.

Property agents believe those who have not yet completed their purchase agreements on flats may be tempted to forfeit their down payments and cancel the deals out of fears the market may be due for a correction after repeated government warnings of a possible bubble.

Mixed-bag of news. More at the links.

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, China Securities Journal, 7 June, 2012:

A Chinese government agency has revealed that it will propose a more flexible pension system to central authorities at an appropriate time to keep a balance between employment and expected shortfall in retirement payments.

The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security said in a written statement posted on its website Wednesday that the ministry is conducting research into the retirement and pension system, and will submit the proposal at an appropriate time after listening to comments from all circles.

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, by Liyuchuan, China Securities Journal, 7 June, 2012:

China decided to put its lenders under the regulatory supervision within the Basel III framework -- a set of tougher capital rules on banks agreed upon by G20 leaders in 2011 -- starting Jan.1, 2013.

The decision was made by an executive meeting of the State Council, or cabinet, after hearing the report by the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC). The meeting was presided over by Premier Wen Jiabao.

Banks will be given a grace period of 10 years to clean up their unqualified capital tools that have already been sold, according to a statement released after the meeting.

Not China, but still noteworthy:

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, by Gary Shilling, China Securities Journal, 5 June, 2012:

Markets have reacted dramatically to the Bank of Japan’s recent efforts to stimulate the economy with loans to high-growth sectors; an expansion of its asset-purchase program; and a new 1 percent inflation target to combat chronic deflation.

Japanese stocks, especially of major exporters, soared and the yen tanked, starting in early February. Yet the spurring effects of monetary easing on Japanese stocks and the depressing influence on the yen didn’t last long. Since mid-March, the currency has resumed its role as a haven from euro-area turmoil. The “risk off” trade is back in favor. Still, I continue to believe that fundamental changes are occurring in Japan that will weaken the yen considerably in future years.

Last year, Japan’s gross government debt was 220 percent of gross domestic product, according to the International Monetary Fund, by far the largest ratio of any Group of Seven country. All governments lend back and forth among official entities so that their gross debt is bigger than the net debt held by non-government investors, and Japan does this more than other developed countries. Still, on a net basis, Japan’s government-debt-to-GDP ratio is rivaled only by Italy’s and leaped to 113 percent in 2011 from 11.5 percent in 1991.

More at the links. There is practically no way to bail out Japan if its two-decade policy of "QE" fails, and someday it will almost certainly fail. This could hit the rest of the industrialized world very hard when it finally goes.
 
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