Chinese Economics Thread

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There are reports recently that foreign-owned enterprises are withdrawing from China. Investigations reveal that it is only an individual case. It is normal to see withdrawal and entry, and withdrawal never becomes a trend. According to the latest statistics from Ministry of Commerce that in January 2012, the investment to China from the Asian region keeps increasing and the investment from the US grows by 29.05 percent year on year with the actual foreign investment up to $342 million. According to the research reports released in 2011 by the AmCham China, EUCCC and JETRO, in the recent two years, a high proportion of enterprises are willing to increase their investment in China. The research by some international organizations also reveals that China is still a premier investment destination for foreign enterprises in the world.

Due to its comprehensive advantages to attract foreign investment, China has ranked the first among the developing countries and the second in the world for consecutive 19 years in the aspect of foreign investment. In recent years, continued, stable and quick development of China��s economy, continued expansion of the domestic consumption market scale, and increasingly improving of the legal and policy environment constitute the long-term comprehensive advantages to attract foreign investment. According to a research, market has become the first determinant for transnational corporations to invest in China. During the 12th Five-year Plan, the acceleration of industrialization, informatization and urbanization will offer more opportunities for foreign investors.

Moreover, we are making a great deal of efforts to further expand the opening fields and improve the investment environment. The issuance of the Several Opinions of the State Council on Further Improving the Work on Utilizing Foreign Investment in 2011 by the State Council and the formal execution of the new edition of Catalogue for Guiding Foreign Investment this year also show the new trend that China is further expanding opening and guiding foreign investment to the high-end manufacturing industry, high-tech industries, modern service, new energy, and energy saving and environmental protection industry.

However, we must be aware that we will meet a severe foreign and domestic situation in absorbing foreign investment. Internationally, the instability and uncertainty of the world economic growth increase, the adjustment of the international industrial structure keeps a slower pace and the growth of total direct investment amount remains weak in the globe. Domestically, there are multiple pressures such as weak external demand, difficulty in financing for some enterprises, serious labor problem in some regions and rise of enterprise operational cost, and there will be much pressure for stabilizing the scale and adjusting the structure of the foreign direct investment.

The globe economy is wobbled due to the European and US sovereign debt crisis, so the US and even the whole European Union begin to issue policies to encourage backflow of the indigenous enterprises. An analysis shows that some technical- and capital-intensive capacity in some major countries absorbing foreign investment may tend to flow back to the European and US mainland and some processing trade capacity may turn to some countries with low cost such as Vietnam and India. Such a trend of new international division layout is worthy of our attention.

Under the new situation to introduce foreign investment, we must accelerate transformation of the mode of economic development, make great efforts to advance structural adjustment and optimize and upgrade the industrial structure. At the same time, we must actively promote the reasonable industrial layout among all regions, so that all regions can take what they needs when introducing foreign investment in order to avoid from the adverse impact due to homogeneous competition.
 

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China's struggling steelmakers will not be financially better off in the short run, and more mergers, acquisitions, restructurings and bankruptcies could be expected in the industry
, said Zhang Changfu, deputy director of the China Iron & Steel Association.

The entire sector has sunk into losses and has become the worst performing industry in China amid uncertain steel prices throughout the year, Zhang explained.

The 77 largest steelmakers produced ¥246.69 billion worth of products and sold ¥260.35 billion worth of goods in January, down 4.6% and 8.5% respectively from a year ago, earlier data from the association showed. What was worse was that the industry reported a net loss of ¥2.18 billion during the month.

For the whole of 2011, the 77 mills reported ¥3.62 trillion in revenues and ¥87.53 billion in gross profits, up 18.7% and down 4.5% respectively from the year before.

China's crude steel output rose 9% to 683 million tons in 2011 after fixed asset investment in the industry expanded 15.5% to ¥511 billion, the association said. The nation's crude steel output represented 45.5% of the global total, up 0.8 percentage points from 2010.

Rising iron ore prices and a market glut caused by excess capacity were blamed for the miserable conditions. In the first nine months of 2011, China paid $22 billion more for iron ore imports compared to the same period a year ago.

This disadvantage weakened in the first two months of 2012, when China imported iron ore at an average price of $136.4 per ton, down 12.9% from the same period a year ago. Unfortunately for China's beleaguered steel industry, a mining tax set to take effect on July 1 in Australia, which contributes 40% of China's iron ore purchases, is raising the specter of pricier iron ore again.
 

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China's cabinet has decided to push forward economic reform in key sectors, including energy and railways,
as part of the goals the current government promised to achieve before it completes its tenure.

The State Council said Thursday that it has approved a reform plan for 2012 mapped out by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).

The government will deepen pricing reforms for resource products and work on implementing tiered electricity pricing for residential users, as well as create a market-based refined oil pricing mechanism, according to a document posted on the State Council's website.

The government is working on detailed measures to encourage private businesses to enter the railway, finance, energy, telecommunications and education sectors, the document said, adding that more resources will be used to foster financial institutions that can serve the agricultural industry and small-sized businesses.


China's interest rate formation mechanism will become more market-directed and a new stock issuance and retreat system will be improved, the document said.

The document said the creation of a reform plan for the railway sector is under way.

In the wake of global turbulence and pressing domestic demand for economic restructuring, China lowered its GDP growth target to 7.5 percent this year after keeping it around 8 percent for seven consecutive years,

By setting a slightly lower GDP growth rate, China hopes to achieve "higher-level, higher-quality development over a longer period of time," Premier Wen Jiabao said at the opening of China's annual legislative session earlier this month.

Analysts said slower growth targets leave room for deepening economic reforms, which they believe are vital for sustaining China's economic boom
 

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After decades of US caterwauling about the crippling impact of China's low labour costs on domestic manufacturing, firms state-side now fret about the impact of rising Chinese wages.

First came anger, then depression and then acceptance.

In the three decades since Deng Xiaoping began opening China's economy, US manufacturers have gone through something resembling Elisabeth Kuebler-Ross's five stages of grief.

Industry cried foul, then groped around for solutions, before accepting the rules of the game had changed - deciding to make a buck by offshoring some of their own production to China.

To be sure, there are still frequent spasms of anger over China's ability to produce goods at "unfair" prices, notably in election years.

But the bitter pain of jobs lost and factories closed has been sweetened just slightly over the years.

Using cheap Chinese labourers has resulted in $499 iPads, bumper corporate profits and -- in turn -- fatter pensions for those who have stock-based plans.

But there are already signs that this low-cost, high-reward Chinese paradigm is coming to an end.

Late on Thursday, US footwear giant Nike reported it had made even more profit than it did the quarter before, yet its stock sank.

Investors hacked about $1 billion off the company's value on Friday because of a reference to "declining gross margin" stashed in the bowels of the firm's quarterly report.

The details are complicated, but Nike's jargon in part referred to rising wages in places like China taking a chunk out of profits.

Indeed, the details show rising wages -- along with some other factors like higher material costs -- caused Nike's margins to fall two per cent in just one year.

That spells extra costs worth tens - if not hundreds - of millions of dollars.

But it is far from enough to make Nike's business unviable, so why the worry?

According to Sara Hasan, an analyst who follows Nike for investment firm McAdams Wright Ragen, the concern is that wages in China are only going to increase from here on in. "It's a very big deal, and it's a longer-term issue definitely," she said.

In the last year, wages in China's southern industrial belt have risen 10 per cent, according to a report by Standard Chartered. They rose 11 per cent the year before that.

The Shanghai authorities recently announced the minimum wage will rise 13 per cent, doubtless prompted by labour shortages and worker unrest.

"As (China's) economy grows and as the middle class grows, I think the pressure is going to continue," said Ms Hasan.

Nike itself admits the costs are unlikely to fall any time soon: "While some raw material costs are starting to ease, we have not seen them retreat to their previous levels; for other input costs such as labour, upward pressure continues," CEO Parker told investors.

That leaves US manufacturers with only a handful of options: accept lower profits, pass the cost on to consumers or lower labour costs some other way.

Part of the answer for Lacrosse, a small Wisconsin-based footwear firm, was to shift some production from China to Vietnam, where wages are still relatively low.

"As costs in China have grown... we make a growing amount of our product in Vietnam," said Michael Newman, who deals with investor relations for the company. Western China, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia are also cited as possible alternate production locations.

That has the added benefit of diversifying the supply base, but moves production away from China's lucrative domestic market.

For bigger firms, the answer may be to trim supply chains or tap consumers.

According to Ms Hasan, Nike is in a good position to leverage its brand strength and pass prices on to US and other consumers.

In the longer term, Nike also hopes to cut production costs the old-fashioned way, through increased automation.

The company has invested its hopes in FlyKnit technology, which knits a shoe upper in one go, reducing the need for workers to assemble dozens of pieces.

Consulting firm Accenture believes that through a mix of these responses, manufacturers with a large footprint in China can handle wage increases of as much as 30 per cent without too much trouble.

"However," its report published earlier this year noted, "China's low-labour cost advantage will not last forever."

That will undoubtedly change the rules of the game for US manufacturers once again.
 

ZELEGEND

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Dominating financial corporations heavily influence the world in all areas e.g USA.

It would be interesting to know what China's plan is on their prospective future role in global influence.
 

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China's outstanding external debt in 2011 totaled nearly $695 billion, the highest since 1985, according to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Thursday.

Debt rose by $146 billion, or nearly 27 percent from 2010, adding to concerns over whether rising external debt might undermine China's fiscal position and cause economic damage.


The proportion of short-term external debt to the total also climbed to a record high of 72 percent as of Dec 31, in contrast to 68 percent in 2010 and 60 percent in 2009.

But the year-on-year increase in short-term debt moderated. As of the end of 2011, outstanding short-term debt stood at $500.9 billion, up 33 percent. The growth rate was nearly 12 percentage points lower than in 2010.

"The ratio of short-term debt to foreign exchange reserves stood at 15.75 percent, far below the globally recognized warning line of 100 percent," said SAFE in a statement on its official website.

"Among the short-term debt, trade credit between enterprises and trade finance from banks together accounted for 74 percent, indicating that the surge in short-term debt is closely related to the rapid development of China's foreign trade in recent years."

SAFE said that as of 2011, China's other external debt indicators, such as the 9.52 percent liability ratio, the 33.31 percent foreign debt ratio and 1.72 percent debt-service ratio, all fell into the "safety" range, according to international standards.

Regulators should be alert to China's rapidly rising short-term external debt, as the proportion of 72 percent is well above the international alert level of 25 percent, said Li Chao,
deputy head of the SAFE, in December.

He said that expectations of further yuan appreciation and interest rate differentials between the yuan and other currencies had spurred the rise in short-term debt, because companies and banks tended to take in foreign currencies more quickly but pay out yuan more slowly.

Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at the Industrial Bank Co Ltd, warned that while regulators should keep an eye on the short-term external debt, the "most devastating risks" lie in the surging medium- and long-term debt, which China might not have the ability to repay due to future interest rate levels.

Medium- and long-term external debt, which accounted for nearly 28 percent of total outstanding external debt, showed a marked increase last year of 12 percent, compared with a 2 percent gain in the previous year.

Lu said the cheap and "more accessible" dollar, the result of US monetary easing, was the main driver of the rapid debt increase.

"But it's difficult to say whether interest rates (on dollar-denominated debt) would still be as low as time goes by."

Dollar-denominated debt took up 76 percent of China's registered external debt, followed by yen debt, which accounted for 8 percent, and euro debt, which made up 7.5 percent, according to the SAFE data.

"Although weakening expectatiuons of yuan appreciation in the years ahead would probably moderate the rise of external debt, the inflexible currency rate of the yuan has made market players insufficiently sensitive to risk," Lu said.

He added that there is no overall, fixed and generalized safety line for external debt, and the experience of some economies proved that problems could still happen even if the major indicators all appear sound.
 

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The situation surrounding China's exports will become more complicated and severe in the coming months amid an increasing number of trade protectionist measures and slackening global demand, the Ministry of Commerce said on Friday.

China will roll out policies regarding currency and tax rebates to bolster exports, Zhong Shan, deputy minister of commerce, said at a forum in Beijing, adding that it will be more arduous for the Chinese government to stabilize export growth.

According to the General Administration of Customs, China's exports declined 0.5 percent over the year in January, the first fall in more than two years. During the first two months, Chinese shipments grew by merely 6.9 percent year-on-year.

The figures are far less than the previous year and they set a pessimistic tone for the whole year, Zhong said.

From January to February of 2011, China's exports grew by 21.3 percent year-on-year.

According to Zhong, industrial competitiveness, global demand and the business environment are the decisive trends for the nation's exports, and they are all "not favorable".

China is losing its dominant competitiveness in labor costs as the nation pledges to raise minimum wages for workers to improve their livelihoods, Zhong said.

"The world economy is entering into a very difficult period, and trade cases targeting Chinese goods are growing," he said.

The United States recently announced it was setting up the Interagency Trade Enforcement Center to see whether its trade partners play by the rules. The move is widely seen as increasing frictions between China and the US.

In the first 11 months of last year, 58 trade remedy cases were launched worldwide against China, and China has been the major target for trade protectionism for a decade.

Earlier this month, Premier Wen Jiabao set a target of 10 percent for foreign trade growth this year.

Zhong said the measures China will take to try to stabilize exports include "improving policies related to foreign trade, encouraging exporters to sharpen competitiveness in technology, brand, quality and service, and guiding them to prioritize selling goods to emerging markets, shifting away from developed markets led by the US and the EU".

Li Gang, an expert on European economic issues with the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation affiliated with the ministry, said China's exports to the EU will be severely challenged this year as the region's economy is on a downward trend.

According to Customs, from January to February, China's exports to the EU, the largest trade partner for China, dropped 1.1 percent from a year earlier.

"The second half will be better than the first half, but the growth of Chinese shipments to the region will probably drop to single digits this year," Li said.

Yet some analysts said China's exports are resilient.

"Despite the negative factors at home and abroad, China could achieve growth above 10 percent in 2012," said Bi Jiyao, a researcher at the Academy of Macroeconomic Research with the National Development and Reform Commission.

Despite the slowdown in export growth, "we can never ignore the significance of exports in driving the economy and industries, and in creating jobs", said Wang Shouwen, director of the department of foreign trade of the ministry.

"There is a lot of room for foreign trade and exports to grow," Wang said, as China accounted for only 11 percent of global foreign trade in 2011 and Chinese industries still enjoy advantages worldwide.
 

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It was only the hardiest adventurers who took up the chance to learn about the mysterious East when China first opened its doors to foreign students in 1950. Now, in an age where China is an economic powerhouse, foreign students have traded their backpacks and guidebooks for a suit and tie as droves of experienced professionals are seeking admission in Chinese business schools.

Driven by the huge gap in the supply of internationally trained managers five years ago, thousands of foreign students from the United States and Europe are enlisting in Chinese MBA and EMBA programs in an effort to get an edge in China's increasingly competitive global business field.

But, unlike six years ago, the focus for business schools is no longer just learning about China. The goal posts have moved as rapidly as the economic tides have shifted.

"We are no longer the 'how to do business in China' supplier, we are the 'how to manage in fast growth markets' supplier to companies on a global basis," said John Quelch, vice-president and dean of the China Europe International Business School based in Shanghai.

With China's Ministry of Education looking to attract more than 500,000 international students by 2020, the number of foreigners seeking elite MBAs akin to those obtained at internationally renowned schools like Harvard or Oxford is showing promising growth.

Leading the pack is Quelch's CEIBS. In 2009, Forbes ranked the CEIBS business MBA program as the eighth among the top 10 non-US two-year MBA programs in the world.

CEIBS has seen its percentage of foreign students almost double from 20 percent to 39 percent over the past 5 years. Other top business schools in China, like Fudan University's EMBA partnership with Washington University and Tsinghua University's MBA program with the MIT Sloan School of Management have also seen positive results.

Detailed in the National Outline for Medium and Long-Term Education Reform and Development (2010-20), the Chinese government is making large endeavors to educate the next line of business leaders.

Because of their efforts, Chinese business schools have gone through one of the most rapid evolutions since the first Chinese MBA programs were offered in 1991, when just 90 Chinese MBA prospects enrolled at the first nine schools offering the courses.

But in the 20 years that followed, China has managed to develop a handful of some of the top sought-after MBA programs by partnering with prestigious US and European universities to develop a curriculum that conforms with the international standards.

Among China's most recognized is Tsinghua's IMBA program, developed in 1997 through a partnership with Massachusetts-based MIT Sloan School of Management.

"We've been receiving great help from the Sloan School on developing the curriculum and training our faculty. This has built the solid foundation of our MBA program," said Qian Yingyi, director of Tsinghua's School of Economics and Management.

While the reputation of these MBA programs is often born out of partnering with Western schools, which allows universities like Tsinghua to call upon the decades of business school teaching experience shared by established institutions like MIT Sloan, Chinese business schools are drifting away from their Western foundations. Rather, they are determined to differentiate themselves by capitalizing on the nation's unique global position.

It was the prospect of learning the China's fast growth markets that first drew 26-year-old Mike Tuan out of a 120,000-dollar-a-year sales and marketing job in the US to pursue his MBA in China.

"Right now, China is being used as a global model, and understanding that model is a big advantage," the Tsinghua MBA graduate student said.

The prospect of being able to rub shoulders with China's current and future leaders is perhaps one of the biggest, but unsung, benefits for foreign students studying in China.

By graduating from Tsinghua's partnership program, Tuan said he will be able to associate with both Tsinghua and MIT Sloan's alumni network - a big advantage for someone seeking business opportunities.

"When you are doing an MBA, half of it is networking, and you want to make the network where you want to use it. That alone is a good reason to come to China," he said.

In addition to getting access to a degree and an alumni network branded with a top-notch university, many foreign students are drawn to China by the cheaper costs of living and tuition.

For international students at Tsinghua's IMBA program, tuition for the two-year program costs 29,800 dollars. If the same student were to fully enroll at MIT Sloan's MBA program in Massachusetts, the cost for tuition alone would be around 50,300 dollars. And for students who take advantage of China's cheap food and housing outside the classroom, the savings are even greater.

This means foreign students studying in China can almost halve their MBA tuition costs without having to sacrifice their brand name.

Sparking the growth in Chinese business schools has been the whirlwind of multinationals expanding operations to China over the past 10 years as foreign companies rush to get a grip on the next big consumer market. At the end of 2011, foreign direct investment in China topped 116 billion US dollars, and that number is only set to go up as foreign companies see growth back home slow due to economic problems.

"Because of the increasing importance of China and the growth that it represents in overall corporate performance among many multinationals, they no longer rely on growth coming from the developed markets," Quelch of CEIBS said.

With more than 260,000 foreign students, China is the fourth-leading destination worldwide for students studying abroad full time, behind France, the UK, and the United States,
according to the International Institute of Education's (IIE) 2012 Project Atlas report. Around 30 percent of those students are pursuing MBA and EMBA degrees.

Those numbers are set to rise as efforts by the Chinese government to attract foreign students start to show results. With more than 800 million yuan going toward scholarships for international students in 2010, housing incentives and a jump in accredited schools - the China option is becoming increasingly attractive.

"China has been very strategic in providing financial incentives and information to attract more students," said Peggy Blumenthal, senior counselor to the president of IIE, a US-based NGO promoting international exchange.

Attracting students is not only valuable for China in terms of helping the world comprehend the often-misunderstood rising superpower, it is also profitable.

In the US, where education draws more than 700,000 international students a year, tuition fees brought into the country by foreign students accounts for 13 billion dollars in the US economy.

But, while the benefits of studying in one of the world's fastest-growing economies may be numerous, the opportunities for foreign MBA graduates to work in China aren't always as plentiful as China's swelling market may suggest.

Despite a critical need to fill a gap in the managerial class six years ago - in 2006 McKinsey & Co estimated that China would need more than 75,000 top-level executives by 2010 - tens of thousands of Chinese students took up the call, enrolling overseas and returning home to fill those positions.

The result is that many companies, both foreign and domestic, prefer to hire Chinese graduates who have studied abroad and earned international experience when looking to expand operations.

"It's difficult to learn the intricacies of China's business culture just by studying in the country for two years. It's almost impossible," said Ben Leary, CEO of Column Associates, a Beijing-based talent management agency.

On the other hand, Chinese students studying abroad are able to grasp Western business concepts quickly and apply them to the Chinese way of doing business, he said.

In addition to having larger access to a pool of Chinese talent, a majority of positions being offered for foreign managers are senior, meaning that fresh graduates do not have the experience requirements to hold the available jobs.

"Multinational companies aren't necessarily looking to recruit fresh graduates for management positions. They want people who have been working in China for 10 years or more," Leary said.

This is the problem recent CEIBS graduate Eric Seidner is confronting.

The 31-year-old American first came to China during its economic upswing seven years ago.

He said that when it comes to applying for jobs, the language barrier and Chinese human resources practices often give Chinese applicants the upper hand.

"Those who have the biggest advantage from what I've been seeing are the ones who have gone abroad and studied and returned - they have the international experience, the exposure to Western education and are still fluent in the language and culture," he said.

But, just as Chinese graduates who return to China after studying in the West have an advantage, foreign professionals who return home after studying in China have a unique edge.

For James Osterloh, who's enrolled in the two-year MBA program at CEIBS, choosing to go China was a way to distinguish himself in his pre-existing job as project manager at Standard Bank in South Africa.

"Going forward, I will be able to compete better with my peers in the bank by using the China expertise," Osterloh said.

The 31-year-old former British army captain said after he finishes his degree, he will return to the bank to play a bigger role in helping develop ties between China and Africa, a position his previous education and experience would have never allowed him to do.

"It really adds a dynamic to my profile that I didn't have before."
 

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The joint complaint by the United States, European Union (EU), and Japan filed against the People's Republic of China (PRC) before the World Trade Organization (WTO) for its restrictive rare earth export policies marks another satisfying act in President Barack Obama's contain-China political theater. It also provides some insight into where the world is headed, and Japan's attempts to maintain its economic and geopolitical relevance.
 
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