Modern Carrier Battle Group..Strategies and Tactics

Re: PLAN Carrier Operations..News, Videos & Photos

Jeff Head said:

Its ability to alter a ballistic trajectory in terminal mode will be very limited. On top of that, there has been no observed live test over the ocean against a manueverabvle target...so we are not really sure 1) if it can do terminal guidance as claimed, or 2) If the system is at any stage of operation or deployment.

Time will tell.

My guess is that the ability to manuever will be very limited...and the laser, particularluy if it catches it while in reentry mode, will have the time to do its work.

As I say...time will tell. Right now we have a tested and deployed AEGIS BMD (on at least 5 cruisers and 16 destroyers as of late 2010) and a live fire tested laser. The DF-21D has no known operational tests at all.

But, for future carriers and capitol ships, like the PLAN carrier, the ability to successfully defend your vessel with lasers will be a huge step forward.

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For the sake of the discussion (posts of which need to be moved, #moderators), I think we sould assume DF-21D is what most believe it to be.

I see no reason why DF-21D could not manouver in the terminal stage, the most modern ICBMs and IRBMs seem to have that capability as a way to counter ABM if I'm not mistaken, among chaff and other decoys?

SinoSoldier said:

Lasers would definitely provide a faster response than ABMs, but I am still at a loss as to how it will be able to intercept a terminally guided warhead. Normal ABMs use pre calculated intercept points, which assumes constant trajectory for the warhead. The DF-21D has a terminally guided warhead, which can alter trajectory.

The laser system would have to have a very fast fire control computer.

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Assuming DF-21D is all it's said to be -- well if we're able to guide missiles onto an incoming ballistic missile it will not be a massive challenge to keep the beam of a laser on a similar target. The challenge for an anti AshBM laser shoudn't be whether the FCR can handle it or not, but rather whether the laser is powerful enough to take it down, never mind whether the turret can be designed to point near vertical.

Most defensive laser concepts at the moment are for ciws, to take out small boats or cruise missiles. A counter AShBM will need a bit more power at the speed and altitude it's coming in at methinks. Though as you mentioned, AShBM will have terminal guidance. Lasers could well act as a soft kill system by screwing with said guidace.

Re: PLAN Carrier Operations..News, Videos & Photos

Bltizo said:

For the sake of the discussion (posts of which need to be moved, #moderators), I think we sould assume DF-21D is what most believe it to be.

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I disagree. That adds a presumption to the discussion that is merely presumed and not proven or shown...I personally will presume it is still in R&D and not beyond initial lab, site tests until I see hard evidence to the contrary...which we have not seen and which, if they conducted it out over the ocean in any kind of real test they could not hide.

Irrespective, the US with the AEGIS SM3/BMD system is not deterred and has a defense already in place on at least 5 cruisers and 16 destroyers as of late 2010...probably several more now.

The laser system will just add another layer of defense. For this discussion I also thought to add in this animation of that defense (though the RV would not be burning as it renters (that's just artistic license so it is easier to see), though there would be a possible visible ion trail as it fell.



With that, I have more than said my piece about this and will wait for further developments on either side before adding more.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

I've said it before and I'll say it again. We have yet to see solid evidence of what the DF-21D is and what it is capable of. While we have seen solid evidence of the very real anti-missile technologies of various types that the USN is developing which, theoretically, can defeat the DF-21D (assuming the DF-21D is basically what it's generally assumed to be)

That doesn't mean that the DF-21D will be shot down everytime. But it does mean that I think it's a big, big mistake to assume that the DF-21D will leave US carriers defenseless.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Finn McCool said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again. We have yet to see solid evidence of what the DF-21D is and what it is capable of. While we have seen solid evidence of the very real anti-missile technologies of various types that the USN is developing which, theoretically, can defeat the DF-21D (assuming the DF-21D is basically what it's generally assumed to be)

That doesn't mean that the DF-21D will be shot down everytime. But it does mean that I think it's a big, big mistake to assume that the DF-21D will leave US carriers defenseless.

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How much does an aircraft carrier cost? How much does an anti-ship ballistic missile cost? How many ASBMs can a carrier group's anti-missile defenses shoot down in one minute?

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

solarz said:

How much does an aircraft carrier cost? How much does an anti-ship ballistic missile cost? How many ASBMs can a carrier group's anti-missile defenses shoot down in one minute?

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We can't really answer two of those questions. My point was that the only thing we can say with confidence is that both sides have a dog in this fight, so to speak. It's a bit premature to declare the DF-21D the game-over answer to carriers.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Finn McCool said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again. We have yet to see solid evidence of what the DF-21D is and what it is capable of. While we have seen solid evidence of the very real anti-missile technologies of various types that the USN is developing which, theoretically, can defeat the DF-21D (assuming the DF-21D is basically what it's generally assumed to be)

That doesn't mean that the DF-21D will be shot down everytime. But it does mean that I think it's a big, big mistake to assume that the DF-21D will leave US carriers defenseless.

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I agree 100%, but DF-21D will be another strong weapon the USN will have to consider, it may make the carrier group away from Chinese coast even further, perhaps 1,500kms off. I don't believe DF-21D is really a game changer weapon. But it may enough to put USN off Chinese coast by another extra 750kms or so. I think it is China objective anyway. USN will never be able to (repeat) humiliate PLAN the same way in 1996 when USN stationed 2 carrier groups in Taiwan strait

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

USN will never be able to (repeat) humiliate PLAN the same way in 1996 when USN stationed 2 carrier groups in Taiwan strait

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Never is a long time...don't count on it.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Finn McCool said:

We can't really answer two of those questions. My point was that the only thing we can say with confidence is that both sides have a dog in this fight, so to speak. It's a bit mature to declare the DF-21D the game-over answer to carriers.

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However, I think we can have some idea of the magnitudes involved. A USN super-carrier costs over $6 billion. Even if a single DF-21 costs $10 million, that's still 600 ASBM to 1 carrier.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Finn McCool said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again. We have yet to see solid evidence of what the DF-21D is and what it is capable of. While we have seen solid evidence of the very real anti-missile technologies of various types that the USN is developing which, theoretically, can defeat the DF-21D (assuming the DF-21D is basically what it's generally assumed to be)

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The more I think about it, the more awkward the idea of intercepting a DF-21D is, not that it would be difficult overall, but rather there will be some stages where the missile is more vulnerable than others. Personally I think terminal will be the hardest stage, so if a few ABs or Ticos are left forward of the main fleet they could try SM-3ing the missile while it's exoatmospheric. But then there are claims

That doesn't mean that the DF-21D will be shot down everytime. But it does mean that I think it's a big, big mistake to assume that the DF-21D will leave US carriers defenseless.

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Of course, at the least it should make USN planners think twice about going into the weapon's purportrated kill zone, a good 2500km or so.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Wouldn't something like the X-47B pretty much counter the DF-21D in the future?