Chinese Economics Thread

Spartan95

Junior Member
Futhermore the article mentioned Chanos who is claiming to be doing very nicely from shorting Chinese stocks.

If a person knows what stocks to short, they will do very well indeed.

Here's 1 example:

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COMMENTARY: Spotlight is again on Chinese stocks for the wrong reasons
Asia News Network
By Risen Jayaseelan in Petaling Jaya/The Star | ANN – Wed, Jun 29, 2011

Petaling Jaya (The Star/ANN) - The spotlight is again on China stocks for the wrong reasons.

It's stemming from Sino-Forest, a Chinese timber company listed in Canada.

Its shares have plummeted amidst reports that it had overstated the value of its assets, raising again concerns about accounting scandals involving Chinese companies listed abroad.

Well known hedge fund Paulson & Co has been in the thick of the story, taking a lot of heat for its investment in Sino-Forest.

News reports have suggested that the fund could have lost up to US$500mil in Sino-Forest.

And now some regulators are scurrying about trying to ensure the other Chinese stocks listed on their exchanges don't suffer from accounting shenanigans.

In the US, the trading in the shares of at least 21 small cap Chinese stocks has been halted over the last one year with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) investigating these companies, their auditors and sponsors.

In Korea, the stock exchange is now considering some rule changes to improve investor protection and to ensure the reliability of the financial statements of foreign companies.

In Malaysia, existing safeguards exist but investors still have their work cut out for them.

For example, the reporting accountant for any Chinese company listed here has to be a Malaysian firm.

Also, any foreign company listing here has to have at least two Malaysian independent directors.

And the firm that audits the books of the Chinese company has to be operating globally and have the same set of professional standards in its firms in China as in other countries.

It is universally accepted, though, that the auditing process is not designed to detect fraud. And this is where sponsors come in.

Regulators in most markets place a lot of responsibility on sponsors of foreign listings, more so if the companies come from China. Simply put, sponsors are supposed to carry out their own due diligence on companies that they are bringing to market.

Sponsors and other advisors can be taken to task if they are proven not to have done a good enough due diligence. They can also be liable for a criminal offence if any serious misrepresentations about the listed company has been made to the investing public.

For the seven Chinese listed companies in Malaysia and the others that are enroute to a listing here, investors needn't unnecessarily fret.

But what they need to do though is to ensure that the sponsors have done their job properly.

It should be noted that it is difficult to pin down exactly what is expected in the due diligence of sponsors, especially of China companies.

Recent developments should give us some clue as to what to watch out for. A March 2011 report by Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission highlighted deficiencies in the work done by some sponsors, including the following:

- Failing to conduct interviews with major customers of the applicant so as to verify the genuineness of the sales figures.

- Unduly relying on a piece of legal advice which was prepared based upon certain facts which did not reflect the full and actual business operation of the listing applicant.

- Deploying inadequate manpower and resources to undertake the level and nature of sponsor work.

Then there's Paulson's experience.

The fund has since disclosed that it had conducted considerable due diligence on Sino-Forest, including reviewing public filings, participating in conference calls and talking with management and analysts covering the company.

A Paulson employee is also said to have visited the company in China and spent time with customers, even meeting a Chinese government hospital dealing with forestry matters.

And yet it seems to have missed the alleged overvaluation of the company's assets.

So those investing in China stocks should pay attention to the sponsor of the company. Is it a credible sponsor? And has it done a thorough enough due diligence?

Sufficient attention should also be paid to the disclosures in the prospectus and questions raised (especially at the time of the draft prospectus disclosure state) as to whether there is any likelihood that this information may not be all it seems.

If you follow financial markets, you will know that some Chinese stocks in various stock exchanges have gotten into trouble (to put it mildly).
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Like we haven't heard that before and still no collapse. Do we forget Chanos started this based on information from Gordan Chang? The guy that said and wrote a book that China was going to collapse because it couldn't handle WTO rules when it joins? It's been a decade. And Chanos said China was going to collapse by the end of 2010. I'll predict when China will suffer a setback. Right after the West has a meltdown.
 

Schumacher

Senior Member
Like we haven't heard that before and still no collapse. Do we forget Chanos started this based on information from Gordan Chang? The guy that said and wrote a book that China was going to collapse because it couldn't handle WTO rules when it joins? It's been a decade. And Chanos said China was going to collapse by the end of 2010. I'll predict when China will suffer a setback. Right after the West has a meltdown.

Yup, it has been a long time since Chanos predicted doom for China. So, either he's already broke shorting China in a big way or he was just lying and never had any major China shorts while enriching himself collecting fees from idiots attracted by his China doom fame.
And true, China may slow down after meltdown in Europe and/or US, in which case it would have been much more profitable to short them instead of China.
 

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
=AssassinsMace;155080]Like we haven't heard that before and still no collapse. Do we forget Chanos started this based on information from Gordan Chang? The guy that said and wrote a book that China was going to collapse because it couldn't handle WTO rules when it joins? It's been a decade. And Chanos said China was going to collapse by the end of 2010. I'll predict when China will suffer a setback. Right after the West has a meltdown.

and Schumacher

Yup, it has been a long time since Chanos predicted doom for China. So, either he's already broke shorting China in a big way or he was just lying and never had any major China shorts while enriching himself collecting fees from idiots attracted by his China doom fame.
And true, China may slow down after meltdown in Europe and/or US, in which case it would have been much more profitable to short them instead of China.

DEcades/ a long time ? ....Actually Chanos's interest in China only started in 2009 .Chanos chose his words carefully He said something like China being a "bubble waiting to be pricked"and as far as I can recall. refrained from naming dates as to when this would happen.
The basis of his claim is China having around 60%? of its economy based on investing in fixed assets was unsustainable if the experience of Japan or Korea was anything to go by. The stocks he takes a position on are usually involved in infrastructure or property development and IMO probably world wide companies that are dependant on China like iron ore and other necessities

AS for him going broke in his shorting stocks the guys not stupid... his hedge fund also plays the long and shorts.and 2011/2 couldl be his reckoning years. He has at various time named the Chinese stocks he is interested in shorting or already has taken a position. The reason why is quite obvious.

Some notable shorts that he has taken is "Hong Kong Poly" which apparently is going in his favour having declined from $10 nearly a year ago to as low as under $5 recently. Dont kknow how well hes doing with the short position he took with the Hong Kong Exchange listing or his bearish outlook on "China Merchant Bank"
but commentators say that the "Shanghai Composite" appears to be in his favour at the moment .

IMO he is only playing with a modest amount of his funds so even if he takes a bath it shouldnt wipe him out.
 
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bladerunner

Banned Idiot
You don't read well. Go back and read it.

I understand fully what you wrote. It differs very little from what you wrote about hang on previous occasions.
As for Chanos he's a specialist in "shorting stocks" bad mouthing your target is part and parcel of the job In fact he could be doing the govt a favour cooling the stock market without the need for government intervention. Although he's probably public enemy No1 to the shysters who like to see overpriced IPO's and other such things.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
I understand fully what you wrote. It differs very little from what you wrote about hang on previous occasions.
As for Chanos he's a specialist in "shorting stocks" bad mouthing your target is part and parcel of the job In fact he could be doing the govt a favour cooling the stock market without the need for government intervention. Although he's probably public enemy No1 to the shysters who like to see overpriced IPO's and other such things.

I don't understand why people would play the "shorting stocks" game so much? Stocks is all based on confidence and fear of the potential and not the actual.
 

defaultuser1

Banned Idiot
You're not predicting anything if you don't name a timespan. Nowadays it seems people make a living on the "China Collapse" circuit without even having stepped foot into the country.

How To Guide
1. Pick a few stale talking points. Skewed male to female ratio, inflation, rising unrest.
2. Spin your talking points into several hours worth of lecture.
3. PROFIT! by going on a China collapse themed lecture circuit.

Nobody can say for certain what will happen when. There will be booms and there will be busts. This is the only certain thing.
 
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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
I understand fully what you wrote. It differs very little from what you wrote about hang on previous occasions.
As for Chanos he's a specialist in "shorting stocks" bad mouthing your target is part and parcel of the job In fact he could be doing the govt a favour cooling the stock market without the need for government intervention. Although he's probably public enemy No1 to the shysters who like to see overpriced IPO's and other such things.


Never said Chanos has been shorting China for a decade. Clearly I said it was Gordan Chang. So you didn't understand or it was intentional manipulation on your part. I'll give you a break that it was a typo about the decades part.
 
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