Chinese Economics Thread

Six China provinces to have huge GDP by 2020: HSBC

(AFP) – 2 hours ago

BEIJING — The economies of six provinces in China will be as big as those of Russia or Canada by 2020, a study has shown, highlighting the challenges faced by Beijing as it tries to cool the red-hot economy.

Describing its forecast as conservative, British banking giant HSBC said China would resemble a "collection of second-tier developed world and leading developing countries" by the end of the next decade.

"Sizzling growth should continue for at least another five years," analyst Zhang Zhiming said in a report titled "Inside the Growth Engine" and published this month.

Zhang forecast six provinces would have annual gross domestic product worth more than one trillion dollars by 2020 -- roughly equal to the economies of Russia, Canada, Australia, and South Korea.

The fast-growing provinces were the southern manufacturing hub of Guangdong, Hebei in the north, Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang in the east and Henan in the centre.

The World Bank expects China's entire economy to grow 10 percent this year before slowing to 8.7 percent in 2011 -- well above the government's oft-stated full-year target of eight percent.

But provincial growth rates could be much higher as local officials seeking to improve their career prospects try to impress their bosses, Zhang said.

"Local governments have managed to beat Beijing's growth targets by a few percentage points every year since 1980," Zhang said.

"Provinces have far more ambitious plans for the expansion of their rail networks and clean energy activities than those stipulated by national targets. In some cases, the local target is double the national one."

Zhang said one of the reasons was "to get promoted in China, you have to outperform your peers."

Some local officials with "vested interests" resist orders from Beijing to implement policies, Zhang said, pointing to the central government's unsuccessful efforts to try to rein in soaring property prices.

"Beijing launched its fierce crackdown on property speculation in April -- and yet eight months on, not only have prices barely moved downwards, volumes actually rose again in September and October," Zhang said.

"Not a single city has rolled out the much-expected property tax."

Last Friday when the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony was held, the China National Offshore Oil Corp. won/signed acontract with Norway to explore undersea oil fields in the North Sea. Sometimes you just have to admire how pragmatic China is. "

But then the FTA between the two that was very close to signing was postponed indefinitely.

bladerunner said:

Last Friday when the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony was held, the China National Offshore Oil Corp. won/signed acontract with Norway to explore undersea oil fields in the North Sea. Sometimes you just have to admire how pragmatic China is. "

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Maybe Norway gave the deal to CNOOC as a way to kiss and makeup with China.

On Premier Wen Jiabao's visit through China's southern neighbours a lot of economic deals were made with India and Pakistan.
China & India want to boost economic ties and increase trade. Although there seems to remain some distrust between the two, as the improving relations seem only superficial for economic gains by both.
In Pakistan, the chinese delegation signed contracts that will see China ading in development processes across the board.

China, Pakistan sign $20 bln deals: minister
Sajjad Tarakzai - December 18, 2010 - 5:09AM

China and Pakistan signed around 20 billion US dollars' worth of deals Friday, boosting trade and investment as Wen Jiabao became the first Chinese premier in five years to visit the nuclear-armed state.
[...]
The two countries signed 13 agreements and a memorandum of understanding in fields including energy, rail transport, reconstruction, agriculture and culture, Information minister Qamar Zaman Kaira told reporters.
"China will provide assistance in 36 projects in Pakistan to be completed in five years," he said. "Basically this is a five-year development plan."
He said 14 billion US dollars will come through a joint economic cooperation group, five billion US dollars in other business agreements, while deals worth another 10 billion US dollars are expected to be concluded at a business leaders' meeting on Saturday.
"Overall the Chinese investment is expected to be around 30 billion US dollars," he said.
Although the deals are vitally important to the moribund Pakistani economy, they pale into comparison with Wen's agreement in Pakistan's arch rival India on Thursday where the two countries agreed to double bilateral trade to 100 billion US dollars by 2015.
[...]
Pakistan says China has already agreed to development projects worth 13.2 billion US dollars in energy, agriculture, infrastructure and health, and wants trade to climb from seven billion to 18 billion US dollars in five years.
"Work on projects worth 14 billion US dollars is continuing at present, while projects of another 20 billion US dollars will be signed between the two sides during the visit," a Pakistani government official told AFP earlier.

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Ah Christmas has brought out my latent Christian feelings so hence the posting of this article


As some people have remarked. "perhaps christianity is providing a haven for people , looking for a morality that have'nt found in daily life ..... possibly as a result of state encouraged materialism?.

"On its current trajectory and with state backing, as the former Time magazine Beijing chief David Aikman notes, within three decades there may be nearly 400 million Christians in China. The future of Christianity may well lie in the east...........................
that market economies benefit from active religious groups seem to have been adopted by the CCP leadership. Perhaps eying the benefits that a strong, state-approved Christian voluntary sector could bring to China, in late 2007 President Hu Jintao announced "the knowledge of religious people must be harnessed to build a prosperous society"

On another note:
P.S What I like best about the article.... One of the comments relating to the article referred to "Yunan Red" as being an excellent wine, the French missionaries had discovered this unique highland for growing wine grapes 200yrs ago,,,,,The best thing missionaries ever did anywhere".....
Anyone here familiar with the wine?




".........Yunnan Red produces about 8,000 tons of wine per year. It organizes winery tours, experiments with varietals, is involved in related projects ranging from grape juice to cosmetics, and does intriguing localized marketing campaigns.

Personal reasons led him to invest, says Wu. “My wife is from Yunnan and her friend was involved in the wine company. I took it over so we would have a link to her home,” he says. “It helps that I like wine and my family likes wine. We plant, we harvest, we drink wine –

my in-laws are very happy.”

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I would be to, cheap/free "plonk" / alcoholic beverage.= NO1/ son-in law

bladerunner said:

Ah Christmas has brought out my latent Christian feelings so hence the posting of this article


As some people have remarked. "perhaps christianity is providing a haven for people , looking for a morality that have'nt found in daily life ..... possibly as a result of state encouraged materialism?.

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"On its current trajectory and with state backing, as the former Time magazine Beijing chief David Aikman notes, within three decades there may be nearly 400 million Christians in China. The future of Christianity may well lie in the east...........................
that market economies benefit from active religious groups seem to have been adopted by the CCP leadership. Perhaps eying the benefits that a strong, state-approved Christian voluntary sector could bring to China, in late 2007 President Hu Jintao announced "the knowledge of religious people must be harnessed to build a prosperous society"

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I suppose sacrafices must be made for social and economic stability... -sigh-

I just hope the PRC doesn't become a massively christian country like the US or anything. At least it manages to make people a bit more moral and such but that just shows a failure of the human psyche than anything. Hopefully China and the Chinese people can eventually achieve all this without the need for religion.

Bltizo said:

I suppose sacrafices must be made for social and economic stability... -sigh-

I just hope the PRC doesn't become a massively christian country like the US or anything.

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The USSA has ceased being a Christian nation LONG LONG AGO. Hence it's decline in power, influence, wealth, prestige, and soon, survivability.

Bltizo said:

At least it manages to make people a bit more moral and such but that just shows a failure of the human psyche than anything.

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Faith in the God of the Bible is not a failure of a human psyche. Rather, ignorance of the Creator's presence and purpose for His creation, is the ultimate failure of humanity. Nations and peoples make this mistake again and again and again throughout history, and will continue to make it until the end times. Just look at the USSA now, and look again ~5 years from now. See history play out live: what happens when a group of people, blessed by God with overwhelming power and wealth to the degree that they are by far the most dominant Alpha their peers have seen in the past 1000 years, gets seemingly bit*h slapped by betas and charlies that are far weaker, and suffers a terminal and HUMILIATING end when there are, analytically, no other country that can challenge it.

Bltizo said:

Hopefully China and the Chinese people can eventually achieve all this without the need for religion.

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Why would I hope for such collective madness? Funny how, in the record of history, any country, despite how small, unassuming, or unimpressive in size and knowledge will grow to prosperity and dominating power in RELATIVELY short periods of time (viewed from history) when it follows the decrees set out by the God of the Bible.

EVEN FUNNIER, or tragic, EVERY country in the annals of history, despite how strong, wealthy, and dominating it is (uh hum, usa), have always died a humiliating, atrocious, and TO THE UNOBSERVANT MASSES, a sudden end to its greatness, if not existence.



Look at how dominating China was in comparison to the West 250 years ago. Europe was backwards technologically and tiny in population and resources compared to China. Yet somehow, in a century, they almost finished off China.

Look at how backwards Japan was in comparison to China throughout history. Yet, look at how it humiliated China in WWII.

Look at how weak, backwards, and small the USA was 250 years ago.
Think about this one, let it sink in.

And 200 years later?

Surpassed Europe. Not a big deal, it's "only" Europe.

Surpassed China. In technology, in military, in influence, in wealth, in size, in prosperity, in every imaginable measure.

China had a >4,500 year head start over the USA, and had put it to great use. The Chinese don't mess around and the things they had accomplished during those 4 millenniums had put them SO SO FAR AHEAD OF THE USA by the time the USA was finally in existent, that it would have required a miracle for the USA to have caught up with China in less than 800 years.

And look what happened in just 200 years?


AND NOW, haha, after having achieved the miraculous superiority over China, and everybody else, in just a few years from now, it will give it all back. Perfectly timed with its "liberation" from the biblical faith and principle it had embraced and followed during its ascent.


If the Chinese can finally come to God after all these years, China WILL BECOME THE MOST DOMINANT COUNTRY ON EARTH WITHIN 15 YEARS FROM NOW.

God does not play favorites, He blesses and punishes according to those who have made the choice to honor Him and seek Him, not according to national boundaries or what continent a people is rooted in.

daveman said:

The USSA has ceased being a Christian nation LONG LONG AGO. Hence it's decline in power, influence, wealth, prestige, and soon, survivability.
.

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I wouldnt quite go that far, However as far as China goes I think religious groups can provide a important support basefor people in need.
But can we depend upon him? WE in... NZ sing out to "God" in our national anthem, but to no avail if one was to judge our economic performance against the rest of the OECD nations.

National Anthem of New Zealand (First Line) - First words of the lyrics (Oh Lord, God) O ngä iwi mätou rä, ...

bladerunner said:

WE ... NZ sing out to "God" in our national anthem,...
National Anthem of New Zealand E Ihowā Atua - NZ national anthem E Ihowa Atua, (Oh Lord, God) O ngä iwi mätou rä, ...

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Aww, right, right...

So "you people" pay lip service to God. Cool, cool. Well, sing on, mate.


Hehe...

If only you will have eyes, and will turn around and see.
If only you will have ears, and will turn around and hear.
And the Lord will heal you and your land.


History never changes, because people never change.

The Chinese saying "no tears until you see the coffin" comes to mind right now.

Let those deny keep on denying, the fireworks will start in earnest soon.