Possible Turkish incursion into Iraq

Finn McCool

Captain
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Turkey plans for possible Iraq incursion By SELCAN HACAOGLU, Associated Press Writer
Tue Oct 9, 3:58 PM ET


SIRNAK, Turkey - Turkey's ruling party decided Tuesday to seek parliamentary approval for an offensive against Kurdish rebels based in northern Iraq, a move that could open a new front in the Iraq war and disrupt one of that nation's few relatively peaceful areas.


The government did not say it had decided to launch such an attack, which could jeopardize Turkey's ties with the United States. The U.S. warned against sending troops across the border and urged Turkey to work with Iraq's government to quell the Turkish Kurd guerrillas.

"If they have a problem, they need to work together to resolve it, and I'm not sure that unilateral incursions are the way to go," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said. "We have counseled, both in public and private, for many, many months, the idea that it is important to work cooperatively to resolve this issue."

In the past, Turkish troops have made small-scale "hot pursuit" raids into Iraq that officials say do not require Parliament's approval. The last major incursion against the militant separatists operating out of Iraq's Kurdish region was in 1997.

There are widespread fears that a Turkish offensive would destabilize Iraq's Kurdish area, which has largely escaped the violence and political turmoil afflicting regions dominated by Shiite Muslims and Sunni Arabs.

Iraqi Kurds, who run a virtual mini-state in Iraq's north, have vowed to defend their borders. A spokesman for the Iraqi Kurdish regional government, Jamal Abdullah, urged Turkey on Tuesday to drop the idea of a military attack.

"We call upon the Turkish government to exercise self-restraint and not to turn the region into an unstable one," he said. "Such attacks will threaten the stability not only in Iraq but the whole region."

Turkey's decision to seek a parliamentary go-ahead was made during a three-hour meeting between Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and officials from his governing Justice and Development Party, said a leading member of the party who was at the meeting.

The party wanted the measure to pass "as soon as possible" and would try to present it to Parliament on Wednesday, the lawmaker said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press. He insisted on anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to reporters.

Earlier Tuesday, the government said it had begun preparations for a military operation into Iraq in pursuit of the rebels after a series of deadly attacks on soldiers in recent days outraged Turks.

Turkey previously had said it would prefer that the United States and its Iraqi Kurd allies in northern Iraq crack down on the rebel Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, which seeks to create an autonomous Kurdish state in Turkey's predominantly Kurdish southeast.

"Institutions concerned have been given the necessary orders and instructions to make all kinds of legal, economic and political preparations to end the presence of the terror organization in a neighboring country in the upcoming period, including if necessary a cross-border operation," said a statement issued after Erdogan met with security officials.

Over the last 10 days, more than two dozen soldiers and civilians died in attacks by PKK rebels in the southeast. The group, labeled terrorist by Washington and the European Union, has fought Turkish forces since 1984 in a war that has killed tens of thousands of rebels, soldiers and civilians.

The public mood made it likely Parliament would move quickly to approve an offensive.

It wasn't clear if Turkey's military planned to strike immediately after approval or wait to see if the action would prod the U.S. and its allies to take robust action against the PKK bases.

However, Turks already have debated a cross-border offensive through much of the year and any further delay could hurt the credibility of the tough-talking government. The military declared months ago that it was ready for an incursion into Iraq.

Turkey's army staged two dozen large-scale incursions into northern Iraq between the late 1980s and 1997. The 1997 operation involved tens of thousands of soldiers and government-paid village guards.

While legislators took up the question of an attack into Iraq, Turkish troops supported by air power pressed ahead with an offensive in Turkey's Sirnak province close to the border. They targeted suspected escape routes for Kurdish guerrillas in the mountainous area.

Turks are furious that PKK rebels carry out attacks on Turkish soil and then slip across the border to sanctuaries in northern Iraq. Turkey has accused Iraqi Kurds of tolerating their ethnic brethren in the PKK.

Under intense pressure from leaders of Iraqi Kurds, Iraq's national government refused to allow Turkey to send troops across the border to chase the rebels under a counterterrorism pact the two countries signed in September.

Turkey does have potential nonmilitary weapons. It could close its border crossings with northern Iraq, which are major source of business for the Iraqi Kurd economy.

But the latest string of attacks by the PKK ramped up public pressure on Erdogan, who has been accused by the opposition of lacking determination to act.

"America is going 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles) to hunt down terrorists in Iraq and Afghanistan. But we can't go 30 kilometers (20 miles), we cannot step into northern Iraq?" complained Abdulmuttalip Hanedan, a village guard leader in Sirnak.

It seems that the Turkish government has decided to proceed with the operation, although it needs parlimentary approval. I have a feeling that Erdogan does not actually want to move into Iraq because of the problems it would cause vis-a-vis the United States, but cannot simply ignore the issue lest he be seen as soft on terrorism, so he is sending it to Parliment in the hopes that they will shoot it down so he gets out of a confrontation with the US, doesn't get tarred as a poor military leader, and can accuse the opposition of the same thing.

On the military side of things, how do you think that this would go if the Turks did cross the border? It would open up a very large can of worms: Would the Kurds leap to the defence of their brothers? Would the Baghdad government use its own troops against the Turks? Who would the US side with?

I think that it is apparent, based on the fact that the Iraqi Kurds have their own de facto well equipped guerilla army and soldiers with years of combat experience (against Saddam's forces, against other Kurds, against the Turks, against Ansar-al-Islam and in the Iraqi Army) that the Kurds would at the very least inflict quite a few casualties on the Turks. The Turkish Army might get at the PKK bases, but I don't see this incursion solving that conflict. Also it might mean the disintigration of the Iraqi Army since many of its units, and most of its better units, are made up of mostly Kurdish troops who might return home to fight if the Iraqi government doesn't defend them. Also, if the Kurds see their homeland invaded and the Turkish Army withdraws, they will see it as victory and you can kiss any chance of them being integrated into Iraq goodbye because they will not give up independence after they have fought for it and not been protected by the Baghdad government.

Anyway that's my thoughts on the situation, any more area appreciated.
 

SampanViking

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Interesting question Finn and a situation with the potential to cause a serious split in NATO.

I have for some time mused on what it would take for Turkey to question whether or not it receives fair and equal treatment from NATO and the EU, especially as there is a alternative structure set up principally in its homelands of Central Asia (I mean of course the SCO).

The global security situation is definitely changing and it is unwise to assume that previous arrangements will continue to satisfy the needs of those currently aligned one way or the other. I think Turkeys predicament is a prime example.
 

Vlad Plasmius

Junior Member
I don't think Erdogan is going to back down, this may be his best chance at keeping a hold on power. Erdogan has been looking down the barrel of the military for some time and he's going to need their support in order to push through his reforms. Here's some more info on this:

Turkey is shelling suspected Kurdish rebel camps across the border in northern Iraq, a newspaper reported Wednesday, but the government appeared unlikely to move toward sending ground troops until next week.

A large-scale military incursion would disrupt one of the few relatively peaceful areas of Iraq and jeopardize Turkey's ties with the United States, which has urged Ankara not to take unilateral steps.

The Turkish military launched a major offensive on its side of the border this week in response to more than a week of deadly attacks in southeastern Turkey by the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK.

A member of the governing Justice and Development Party said a request for parliamentary approval for a cross-border ground offensive was unlikely to come to the floor before the end of a four-day religious holiday on Sunday. He asked not to be named because he was not authorized to speak to reporters.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told reporters that preparations for the parliamentary authorization were under way but he did not say when a motion could reach the floor.

Turkish troops were also shelling suspected PKK camps in the regions of Kanimasa, Nazdur and Sinath, in northern Iraq, from positions in Turkey's Hakkari province, just across the border, Hurriyet reported. Tanks were positioned near the town of Silopi, in Sirnak province, the paper said.

At least one artillery unit was seen positioned on the Turkish side of the border, across from the Iraqi Kurdish town of Zakho, with guns facing toward Iraq.

The paper said the government would impose an information blackout on its preparations for a possible cross-border offensive.

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In a surprise move, Turkish firms working in northern Iraq have begun to terminate their activities in anticipation of a major Turkish military incursion.

Turkish troops are amassing on the border in preparation of a possible military operation against Turkish Kurdish rebels in the area.

The rebels are said to be using the Iraqi Kurdish region as a springboard for attacks inside Turkey.

The Kurdish regional government says it has mobilized its militias, locally known as peshmerga, to confront any military incursion by Turkey.

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The Kurds are a very well-trained force and consist of over 150,000 men. Any Turkish incursion will likely be from 50,000 to 100,000.

Also al-Sadr has signalled months ago he'd try to help the Kurds against Turkey:

Protesting Turkey's shelling of northern Iraq, radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr warned Sunday that Iraqis would not remain silent in the face of Ankara's "transgressions" and called on the Turkish people to join Iraqis in rejecting such actions.

In a statement issued in the holy city of Najaf south of Baghdad, the Shiite cleric said he was saddened by last week's shelling, which prompted Iraq's Foreign Ministry to summon Turkey's top diplomat in Baghdad and hand him a formal protest note Saturday.

"We will not stay silent in the face of these transgressions because our faith and our nation call upon us to defend Iraq and every inch of its territory, which we consider to be holy."

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There's also been off and on talk of Iran joining Turkey in an incursion. Whether they would send their troops in as well or simply provide support probably depends.

Also a vote in Congress may make this scenario inevitable:

A proposed House resolution that would label as "genocide" the deaths of Armenians more than 90 years ago during the Ottoman Empire has won the support of a majority of House members, unleashing a lobbying blitz by the Bush administration and other opponents who say it would greatly harm relations with Turkey, a key ally in the Iraq war.

Pelosi had long been a co-sponsor of the resolution. The Armenian National Committee, one of the many Armenian organizations that have sought passage of the measure for years, has given her an "A" grade for her stance on Armenian issues.

Now as speaker, Pelosi will face a choice between her role as a national leader and her previous campaign pledges as a member of Congress. U.S.-Turkish relations are already under some strain because Kurdish militant groups have attacked Turkish targets from bases in Iraq, with Ankara suggesting it may launch its own attack. Turkey plans to hold a "neighbors" conference on Iraq pushed by the United States later this month, but a recent poll by the nonpartisan group Terror Free Tomorrow found that 83 percent of Turks would oppose assisting the United States on Iraq if the Armenia resolution passed

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This bill has 226 co-sponsors in the House, a majority of representatives. Only 218 yes votes are needed and Pelosi has said she'll put it up to a vote when it passes in the Foreign Affairs Committee. Turkey has threatened many responses:

Turkey will bring on such sanctions as not extending the decree for permitting the passage of logistic needs of US soldiers from the İncirlik Air Base; permitting the use of the İncirlik Air Base as well as the US' use of Turkish land when withdrawing soldiers from Iraq; a slowing down of the cooperation in NATO; an agreement with Iran on the natural gas issue as well as seeking new agreements, the cancellation of the US Joint Strike Fighter Planes project and ending the role of balance in Washington's Middle East policies.

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So if all of this goes through as it appears it will, then we'll be seeing a major realignment in the Middle East and the stability the Iraq surge has brought will all be shot down the tubes and likely bring about a major regional war.
 

bd popeye

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Turkey said it had begun preparations for a military operation into Iraq against Kurdish rebels two days after rebels killed 15 Turkish soldiers at the Turkey-Iraq border. Tanks and military trucks were seen moving toward the border region.
Photo: Burhan Ozbilici/Associated Press

A few months ago there was some incursion by Turkish forces. Will this be a bigger show????
 

crazyinsane105

Junior Member
VIP Professional
The entire region will explode if there is an actual Turkish invasion of northern Iraq. Ansar al Sunnah (a large insurgent group fighting the US and which has its roots in northern Iraq) and their allies (Islamic State of Iraq) and maybe even the nationalistic Iraq groups which are oppossed to such action by Turkey (Islamic Army of Iraq, 190 Revolution Brigade) will most likely end up getting involved in the fray. Crap, and you know what sucks the most? All this will be happening with 160,000 US troops stuck in Iraq. :confused:Whatever small amount of 'stability' that has been gained by the surge will by no doubt vanish...
 

Norfolk

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The Turkish Army has 260,000 or so troops in south-east Turkey, and at least half of those are now on the Iraqi frontier. It's one thing for some of the generals to be champing at the bit; it's quite another when this crisis has been dragging on for many months now, the General Staff has had a completed campaign plan since late June or early July at the latest, and the political heat in Turkey is way up; and now this.

I don't honestly believe that the Turkish Government wants to invade northern Iraq, but a lot of chickens are coming home to rooste now, including the referendum on whether or not Kirkuk and its oilfields (and Turkoman minority population, amongst other minorities there) will formally join the Kurdish provinces or remain in the Arab provinces. Formal Kurdish annexation of Kirkuk would give the Kurdish government in Mosul the economic clout to sustain an independent Kurdish state, and Turkey has said that it will never allow that to happen. PKK terrorist operations staged from Iraq into Turkey provide as much of a catalyst to any potential Turkish invasion as they are a reason in and of themselves.
 

Vlad Plasmius

Junior Member
Well the House panel on Foreign Affairs has approved the Armenian Genocide resolution:

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If this goes up to a vote soon it will probably ruin our actions in Iraq and make this invasion inevitable.
 

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
This situation will cause a permanant rift between the United States and Turkey, and will put a real damper on Turkey's possible EU status. EU countries don't invade other countries, regardless of the cause.

Vlad, I'm curious where you got that 100,000 troops figure from. I'm not saying its wrong. It's certainly possible; the Turks have enough troops in the area and could logically need that many if the fray becomes as bad as Crazyinsane indicated, but considering the fact that they wouldn't have to invade all of Iraqi Kurdistan (the PKK camps are very close to the border I understand) it seems to me that an incursion of several thousand troops supported by air power would be enough to do away with the lightly armed PKK (if they even stand and fight) and hold the peshmerga at bay. That would be a lot more politically acceptable.

On the other hand, the Turkish may see this as an opportunity to crush this "Kurdish independence moment". If they try to pursue that more lofty goal, then we are in for a major crisis.

This puts the US in an IMPOSSIBLE situation. We have obligations to Turkey, the Kurds and the Baghdad government. The best we can hope if the Turkish Army does go ahead with the operation, is that the PKK rolls over quickly, the more "mainstream" peshmerga units don't fight, and the Turks leave quickly. However I don't find that likely.
 

crazyinsane105

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This situation will cause a permanant rift between the United States and Turkey, and will put a real damper on Turkey's possible EU status. EU countries don't invade other countries, regardless of the cause.

Vlad, I'm curious where you got that 100,000 troops figure from. I'm not saying its wrong. It's certainly possible; the Turks have enough troops in the area and could logically need that many if the fray becomes as bad as Crazyinsane indicated, but considering the fact that they wouldn't have to invade all of Iraqi Kurdistan (the PKK camps are very close to the border I understand) it seems to me that an incursion of several thousand troops supported by air power would be enough to do away with the lightly armed PKK (if they even stand and fight) and hold the peshmerga at bay. That would be a lot more politically acceptable.

On the other hand, the Turkish may see this as an opportunity to crush this "Kurdish independence moment". If they try to pursue that more lofty goal, then we are in for a major crisis.

This puts the US in an IMPOSSIBLE situation. We have obligations to Turkey, the Kurds and the Baghdad government. The best we can hope if the Turkish Army does go ahead with the operation, is that the PKK rolls over quickly, the more "mainstream" peshmerga units don't fight, and the Turks leave quickly. However I don't find that likely.

I have read sources which have stated that there are up to 200,000 Turkish troop stationed at the border of Iraq and are awaiting orders from the government. We can relate this situation to the Lebanon-Israel one of 2006: the Israelis wanted to wipe out Hezbullah and while they were bombing Lebanon, the Lebanese army didn't react. Now even though the mainstream Kurds won't agree with the PKK, they sure as hell won't be too happy if the Turkish army decides to start a bombing campaign against northern Iraq. And then there's the issue of the Turks living in Kirkuk...the Turkish army may deem it necessary to protect the Turkish minority...and neighboring countries like Iran have in the past hit Kurdish positions with missiles so Iran could get involved...this will be a messy situation indeed and one that should be avoided, it can bring in neighboring countries into this conflict, plus the mainstream Kurds are a very heavily armed foe and will prove a very tough adversary for any military.
 
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