Political and Military Analysis on China

Post here research papers, policy briefs, think thank publications and other material on china critical security issues in asia and worldwide.

The Chinese People's Liberation Army Signals Intelligence and Cyber Reconnaissance Infrastructure


This study offers a tentative baseline for assessing the GSD Third Department, affiliated Technical Reconnaissance Bureaus (TRBs), and supporting research and development organizations. An examination of this organization, its role and function would provide a mosaic with which to better evaluate China‘s signal intelligence and cyber-infrastructure. The data points assembled by this monograph points to an expansive yet stovepiped organization responsible for various facets of technical reconnaissance, including collection of wireless line of sight communications, satellite communications, cyber surveillance, network traffic analysis, network security, encryption and decryption, translation, and political, military, and economic analysis.


Paradox of Power: Sino-American Strategic Restraint in an Age of Vulnerability


The United States and China each have or will soon have the ability to inflict grave harm upon the other by nuclear attack, attacks on satellites, or attacks on computer networks. Paradoxically, despite each country’s power, its strategic vulnerability is growing. Particularly since September 11, 2001, Americans have sensed this vulnerability. The extent to which the Chinese sense it is unclear...

VMT (Very Many Thanks) Escobar for posting the "Paradox of Power: Sino-American .....". It is an excellent article which I hope is also widely read by China's Military. As I mentioned in my various posts in Sino-Defence, there will be NO winners in any future War. In the final analysis, Nuclear Weapons will be used by the Forces concerned. It appears that with the recent arguements, counter arguements, posturings and "threats", the Asia-Pacific could be heading for sea conflicts initially, & God forbid, a War? Examine the geo-politics of the region & a clearer picture emerges. China must not feel it is being contained by the US & others, and China must not be seen as a threat to its neighbours (by its actions & not words). Is this a possibility? The National Leaders will have to decide.

advill said:

VMT (Very Many Thanks) Escobar for posting the "Paradox of Power: Sino-American .....". It is an excellent article which I hope is also widely read by China's Military. As I mentioned in my various posts in Sino-Defence, there will be NO winners in any future War. In the final analysis, Nuclear Weapons will be used by the Forces concerned. It appears that with the recent arguements, counter arguements, posturings and "threats", the Asia-Pacific could be heading for sea conflicts initially, & God forbid, a War? Examine the geo-politics of the region & a clearer picture emerges. China must not feel it is being contained by the US & others, and China must not be seen as a threat to its neighbours (by its actions & not words). Is this a possibility? The National Leaders will have to decide.

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Yes i think it is one of the best article i ever read on US-china relation.

About china feel contained by US it is not a feeling, it is a reality:
- the US is already puting in place an economic containment strategy with the TPP; but i don't know how it would work
with many asian country economy trade revolves around china economy.
- the military containment strategy is already there (military alliance with japan, korea) and the US is consolidating it with
the deployment of US marines in australia, possible base in philipine and future deployment of US Navy LCS in singapore. It will be
very hard to break this containment strategy but i think it is possible.(we can discuss later if you want)

No matter china do or not, some of its neighbours will see it as a threat.

China’s Century? Why America’s Edge Will Endure


This provocative article offers a useful corrective for overly-declinist views of America’s trajectory in the international system, which have been quite fashionable of late in certain quarters. Two assumptions dominate current foreign policy debates in the United States and China. First, the United States is in decline relative to China. Second, much of this decline is the result of globalization and the hegemonic burdens the United States bears to sustain globalization. Both of these assumptions are wrong. The United States is not in decline; in fact, it is now wealthier, more innovative, and more militarily powerful compared to China than it was in 1991. Moreover, globalization and hegemony do not erode U.S. power; they reinforce it. The United States derives competitive advantages from its hegemonic position, and globalization allows it to exploit these advantages, attracting economic activity and manipulating the international system to its benefit. The United States should therefore continue to prop up the global economy and maintain a robust diplomatic and military presence abroad.


Space, China’s Tactical Frontier


In recent years, China has made stunning progress in its satellite reconnaissance capabilities. Starting from almost no capacity for live surveillance ten years ago, today the PLA has gained the capability to support real-time tactical naval operations from space. China’s suite of electro-optical, synthetic aperture radar, and electronic intelligence satellites would be key to its antiaccess/area denial capabilities, through which the PLA could deny the United States military the capability to operate with impunity close to its shores. Furthermore, these achievements suggest a shift towards more military-dedicated space assets and form the contours of a crucial support system for expanded PLA operations.

Very good postings & independent viewpoints. We must always try to avoid Conflicts & Suspicions and have transparency in our words & actions. We should also examine the misdeeds of the Axis Power during World War II - their leaders were Proud, Greedy for territory & Aggressive. History can repeat itself, but this time around Nations (with nuclear arsenals) can destroy each other, and other countries too in the process. Leaders need to ponder very carefully, & not be reckless for the sake of their nations' future generations.

Schumacher said:

That 'reputation' pales in comparison to US waging wars on Korea, Indochina, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya etc. So I think the neighbors are well capable of adapting.

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it is funny or i must say cynical when US want china to be a responsible stakeholder like them.
if so china should launch war like them as soon as there are an opposition somewhere in the world begining by taiwan.

A good one from SSI
Chinese Lessons from Other Peoples' Wars


The importance of China stems not only from its current international role and its influence on the Asia-Pacific region in particular, but also because China’s impact on global developments will likely continue to grow. One of our enduring imperatives is to accurately survey China’s experiences as a means to grasp its existing perceptions, motivations, and ambitions. More than ever, solid, evidence-based evaluation of what the PLA has learned from the use of force and conflict elsewhere in the world is needed to shed light on the prospects for its cooperation, or rivalry, with the international community. This volume provides unique, valuable insights on how the PLA has applied the lessons learned from others’ military actions to its own strategic planning.


The United States and China in Power Transition


The most profound change that the United States and China have experienced in their relations over the past 30 years is perhaps the onset of an apparent power transition between the two nations. This potentially titanic change was set in motion as a result of China’s genuine and phenomenal economic development, and the impact of this economic success on the United States and the U.S.-led international system has been growing steadily. This perceived power transition process will continue to be a defining factor in U.S.-China relations for the next 30 years. As China’s economic, political, cultural, and military influence continue to grow globally, what kind of a global power will China become? What kind of a relationship will evolve between China and the United States? How will the United States maintain its leadership in world affairs and develop a working relationship with China so that China can join hands with the United States to shape the world in constructive ways? In this book, Dr. David Lai offers an engaging discussion of these questions and others. His analysis addresses issues that trouble U.S. as well as Chinese leaders. Dr. Lai has taken painstaking care to put the conflicting positions in perspective, most notably presenting the origins of the conflicts, highlighting the conflicting parties’ key opposing positions (by citing their primary or original sources), and pointing out the stalemates.

VMT Escobar for Strategic Sudies Institute's Bk by Dr. Lai. Looks interesting & good for background knowledge.

China's Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) Satellite Developments: Implications for U.S. Air and Naval Operations


A review of authoritative Chinese writings indicate that the People’s Republic of China is researching, developing, testing, and deploying a number of electronic intelligence (ELINT) satellites for the tracking and targeting of mobile air defense systems and ships at sea. This program has potentially serious and immediate implications U.S. and allied air and naval operations in the Asia-Pacific region.


Shaking the Heavens and Splitting the Earth:Chinese Air Force Employment Concepts in the 21st Century


Less than a decade ago, China's air force was an antiquated service equipped almost exclusively with weapons based on 1950s-era Soviet designs and operated by personnel with questionable training according to outdated employment concepts. Today, the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) appears to be on its way to becoming a modern, highly capable air force for the 21st century. This monograph analyzes publications of the Chinese military, previously published Western analyses of China's air force, and information available in published sources about current and future capabilities of the PLAAF. It describes the concepts for employing forces that the PLAAF is likely to implement in the future, analyzes how those concepts might be realized in a conflict over Taiwan, assesses the implications of China implementing these concepts, and provides recommendations about actions that should be taken in response.

The Battle for China’s Top Nine Leadership Posts

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There is no better vantage point for understanding Chinese leadership politics than to analyze the nine individuals who make up the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC). Despite the highly diverse and divergent assessments of elite politics which populate the overseas China-watching communities, the last decade has witnessed a surprisingly strong consensus emerge on the pivotal importance of the PSC. The top Chinese leader, General Secretary of the Party and President Hu Jintao, is now understood to be no more than the “first among equals” in this supreme decisionmaking body. Within the People’s Republic of China (PRC), a new Chinese term, jiuchangwei, was recently created to refer exclusively to these nine political heavyweights. In line with this development, the Chinese authorities have placed increasing emphasis on “collective leadership,” which the 2007 Party Congress Communiqué defines as “a system with division of responsibilities among individual leaders in an effort to prevent arbitrary decision-making by a single top leader.