I would say Japan CAN and most likely WILL
India CAN'T but desperately WANTS to.
I don't see Japan being left behind in anything China does. If China has a naval buildup then Japan has to keep up also, it's for their own credibility and place in Asia. India is obsessed with any or everything China does but unlike Japan, they don't have a world class shipbuilding industry. India will be frustrated watching China's navy grow. The other countries in Asia, they are not in the same league.
Don't forget the South Koreans. I expect them to probably up their orders as well if both China and Japan start a mini naval arms race.
Agree on India desperately wanting to get in on that game, but lacking the means to do so technically. They cannot apply their normal go-to solution of turning to Russia for weapons to hope to compete with China, but that does not mean they are out of contention altogether.
India has been getting very chummy with Japan lately, and with the changes to Japanese defence laws, there is an outside possibility that the Indians may turn to Japan or South Korea to help them fulfil their obsession with "matching" China at every turn.
Although such a deal would need American support and approval, since both the South Korean and Japanese ships rely on imported or licensed American components for their core radars, VLS and missile systems.
India and America have been getting very chummy as well, so I can certainly see Washington being receptive to such a deal. The only reason I can see America banning such a deal is if America wants to sell India warships directly.
So don't count India out just yet. It will cost them big time to do it, but they do have options if they are willing to pay through the nose to feel like they are in the same league as China.
