I'm personally cautious about adopting the idea that the Pakistani submarines are going be a radical departure from S20.
While it is true that word about this has been on since 2009, with talks beginning in 2011 and taking four years to complete, we need to account for the context as well.
For one thing, the S20 design was not unveiled until quite recently (i.e. 2013), several years after Pakistan voiced its interest in Yuan. The point about Pakistan having some input in the development of the submarine is valid, and now we have CSOC offering a design (S20) that is similar in dimensions to the Type-214.
I am not convinced that the PN is getting a bigger submarine. Let's not overstate Chinese-Pakistani relations here, we're close commercial partners, but we're not so close that China needs to feel compelled to offer the latest and greatest designs.
China is increasingly working to offer genuine export-solutions in parallel with its domestic programs, e.g. S20 submarine, CSOC High Performance Frigate, J-31 fighter, etc. Granted, there are also many other programs where a locally used solution is on offer to the market as well, e.g. Z-10 and Type-056 corvette, I think we should pay heed to where the line is drawn, e.g. on the S20 submarine. These export solutions are meant to be competitive and in line with what is on offer on the world market, so the PN going for them should be seen as normal and expected.
So yes, it took some years to see this deal to launch, but in those intervening years we've had China actually pivot its Yuan program to account for export.
That said, we do have to be aware of Pakistan's openly professed need to achieve assured second-strike capability. Some aspects to the S20, e.g. the capacity to carry SLCM, will probably be incorporated, but VLS is really pushing it. I am curious as to whether we'll be getting AIP, and if so, if there is a possibility of going third party with it. I guess I just contradicted my little rant above
While it is true that word about this has been on since 2009, with talks beginning in 2011 and taking four years to complete, we need to account for the context as well.
For one thing, the S20 design was not unveiled until quite recently (i.e. 2013), several years after Pakistan voiced its interest in Yuan. The point about Pakistan having some input in the development of the submarine is valid, and now we have CSOC offering a design (S20) that is similar in dimensions to the Type-214.
I am not convinced that the PN is getting a bigger submarine. Let's not overstate Chinese-Pakistani relations here, we're close commercial partners, but we're not so close that China needs to feel compelled to offer the latest and greatest designs.
China is increasingly working to offer genuine export-solutions in parallel with its domestic programs, e.g. S20 submarine, CSOC High Performance Frigate, J-31 fighter, etc. Granted, there are also many other programs where a locally used solution is on offer to the market as well, e.g. Z-10 and Type-056 corvette, I think we should pay heed to where the line is drawn, e.g. on the S20 submarine. These export solutions are meant to be competitive and in line with what is on offer on the world market, so the PN going for them should be seen as normal and expected.
So yes, it took some years to see this deal to launch, but in those intervening years we've had China actually pivot its Yuan program to account for export.
That said, we do have to be aware of Pakistan's openly professed need to achieve assured second-strike capability. Some aspects to the S20, e.g. the capacity to carry SLCM, will probably be incorporated, but VLS is really pushing it. I am curious as to whether we'll be getting AIP, and if so, if there is a possibility of going third party with it. I guess I just contradicted my little rant above
