PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
I think Chinese military need to think using "soft power" strategy to dealing with Taiwan issues rather than invasion. More and more China and Taiwan depend each other in economic relationship, and show that China can give more benefit to Taiwanese economic will make any negative thinking about China groundless. In future when Chinese mainland and Taiwanese relationship get more complex and needed each other, Taiwanese will feel more integrate to China in many thing, especially economic. And make pro-independence shrinking and lost it's momentum.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
It is well established that Beijing sees peaceful reunification as its top priority. A reunification won through war is a defeat for China even if the PLA takes the island and the results exceed even the PLA's the most wildly optimistic projections.
The balance of power between the straits has long ago shifted decidedly in Beijing's favor. If China wanted to take Taiwan by force no matter the cost, it could have done that already. If that was what China wanted to do, it would have encouraged American adventurism in the ME regarding Iran by becoming a cheerleader for war (even if behind the scenes) when the Israelis were really pressing for it a few years back.
The military build up has always been a contingency to make sure some pro-independence fanatics do not get any funny ideas. As relations improve and economic ties deepen, the odds of conflict is receding fast, and you can see the PLA is already starting to shift their focus further afield with aircraft carriers and talk of overseas bases.
Despite all the hype, China still spends less than what the likes of the US, UK and France spends on defense GDP wise, and is barely higher than the non-US NATO average between 1995-99, and given recent US criticism of low European NATO defense spending and a US desire for higher defense spending on the continent, you would think the US would agree that China's defense spending is not excessively high.
The balance of power between the straits has long ago shifted decidedly in Beijing's favor. If China wanted to take Taiwan by force no matter the cost, it could have done that already. If that was what China wanted to do, it would have encouraged American adventurism in the ME regarding Iran by becoming a cheerleader for war (even if behind the scenes) when the Israelis were really pressing for it a few years back.
The military build up has always been a contingency to make sure some pro-independence fanatics do not get any funny ideas. As relations improve and economic ties deepen, the odds of conflict is receding fast, and you can see the PLA is already starting to shift their focus further afield with aircraft carriers and talk of overseas bases.
Despite all the hype, China still spends less than what the likes of the US, UK and France spends on defense GDP wise, and is barely higher than the non-US NATO average between 1995-99, and given recent US criticism of low European NATO defense spending and a US desire for higher defense spending on the continent, you would think the US would agree that China's defense spending is not excessively high.
Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait
Your argument makes sense.. But it will be politically disastrous. Thus I conclude, PRC will never do that.
Just imagine PRC will be the 2nd country to use nuclear weapons (After US bombing Japan) and it was used against their fellow Chinese?? Come'on..
Your argument makes sense.. But it will be politically disastrous. Thus I conclude, PRC will never do that.
Just imagine PRC will be the 2nd country to use nuclear weapons (After US bombing Japan) and it was used against their fellow Chinese?? Come'on..
I agree on your statement above, indeed PRC was already unquestionably superior that Taiwan.
But I wonder why would China cheer for a war against Iran? Even is USA allocates for forces in ME for another war in Iran, they can still mobilize enough force for Taiwan straits. Why? They had 11 Carrier groups... It will also be a one sided battle, though maybe of course with higher US casualties and damages...
I think another war in Iran is not sufficient to distract US military posture in the world... They can mobilize additional 1 million troops if they wanted too (honestly speaking with 300 million population).
Red___Sword
Junior Member
I think the hype of "being draged by Iran" for another war for the US - directly spin the US's globle full spectrum dominance even thiner. And that, could be used by any of US's rivalry.
Yes, US is still the biggest bad ass in military even after any kind of commitment into another war zone... but as the full spectrum of National power - your enemy can attack your bank instead of your CBGs, just that much easier if you find yourself another war.
Soviet for one, didn't die from war.
US is politically more stable compared to USSR during the war in Afghanistan.
US dollar was the still the major reserve currency... They will still posses enough economic power to survive and struggle on.
Secondly I don't think the time is already ripe for China to succeed USA economically. China had to boosts its consumption and expand its economy further until it reaches the point that every nation in this world (China is the number 1 trading partner). and the Yuan widely circulated so that it can now be the new reserve currency.
By the time then, USA will surely crumble... once the dominance of US dollars was lost.
Geographer
Junior Member
And what happened after 1945? Japan tripped over themselves kissing Americans' occupying feet. No one cared, ultimately. Only academics and peaceniks argue about the decision, not the mainstream of society or the political establishment. If you're looking for a precedent that an atomic attack will be condemned and vilified through history, the Nagasaki and Hiroshima bombings are not it.
Invading Taiwan conventionally is going to be ugly, no two ways about it. Demonstrating a nuclear blast off the coast, or using one against a single city and quickly inducing surrender would probably ultimately save time and lives.
Japanese and Americans are different. Get it? For the Americans to bomb Japanese.. These are two different kinds of people.
With regards to China and Taiwan, they are both Chinese... Many of their relatives lives either in China or Taiwan. Do you think they would ever forgive their government for bombing their own people??
The nuke thing is totally unrealistic. Got it?
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Iran is not going to be a push over, if the US attacked Iran, it will be a major war that will suck in the bulk of America's deployable military forces in the form of aircraft, munitions, logistical support and naval forces etc.
If China just wanted to take Taiwan at the first opportunity, then that would be the perfect time to do it.
By the time America can re-deploy its naval forces from the gulf (which would be subject to a lot more navigational chock points, giving the PLAN much better chances to finding and engaging the US carriers before they can get in theatre) or 'mobilize 1 million men' (I would love to see anyone actually try that, there would literally be blood on the streets, no that is a cold war legacy number, and will only be relevant if someone actually invades CONUS), the war would likely be over or at the least in the dying stages.
America might be willing to help Taiwan repel a Chinese attack, and that is a massive 'might' right there, but it most certainly is not ready to invade Taiwan and take it from China.