PLAN Strategy in the Taiwan Strait

Discussion in 'Navy' started by pugachev_diver, Apr 15, 2011.

  1. delft
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    delft Brigadier

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    A very interesting article. He admires the way the Marines are training the army of Georgia to perhaps land on a coast in West Africa in support of US interests. That of course went horribly wrong. He also identifies local contractors responsible for easing unofficial use of airfields by US aircraft. I'm sure people who want their country to be independent of the US and are prepared to use violence will want to kill them. And he describes how many governments are dependent on the US.
     
  2. Spartan95
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    Spartan95 Junior Member

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    Now, if the leadership has control of the organisation, it wouldn't be hard to make reforms to that organisation right? Or do you have an explanation as to why when the leadership has control of an organisation but they have difficulty carrying out reforms to the said organisation?

    As for civilian vs military organisation, what is the difference between a provincial authority and a Military Region authority (or a fleet for that matter)? As the traditional saying goes, the mountain is high and the emperor is far away.

    Not yet.

    But, what happens when there is a split in the leadership as happened to Zhao Ziyang?

    My original point was that HK was swamped by people from PRC, which makes the "1 country 2 system" pitch a lot less attractive as an incentive. And here's 2 news articles in English (those published in HK media in Chinese/Cantonese are not so civil):

    From Dec 2006:

    Pregnant Mainland Women Face Tough Rules -- china.org.cn

    A more recent one published by Beijing Today:

    HK eager to keep out expecting mothers : BeijingToday

    From the figures given by Beijing Today, it is quite clear that HK is being swamped by people from PRC. Does Taiwan want to follow in the footsteps?

    2 big and obvious difference:

    1. US is known for their freedom of speech, PRC is not. Hence, writers in America routinely publish rather sensational books to boost sales. The same cannot be said of writers in PRC. For example, some historians in the US refer to Mao Zedong as the Peasant Emperor. I don't think a PRC writer will get away with that.

    2. The CCP's official line is "Peaceful Rise", and the PLAN's official line is "Harmonious Ocean". And here there are 2 colonels in the PLA that writes about "Unrestricted Warfare" that contracts the official line. Has it become the norm for senior PLA officers to contradict official lines now?
     
  3. Mr T
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    Mr T Senior Member

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    The warlord era was a problem for China largely because there were so many of them and they fought for control. That doesn't mean that Chinese people would never accept a unified government made up of members of the military.

    But we have to remember that the PLA already have significant influence in this civilian-led government. Aren't two senior generals members of the Politburo? They wouldn't need to directly sieze power to encourage a military operation. Whereas, as I mentioned earlier, Yang Jiechi doesn't have the ability to counter anything they might say during Politburo meetings.
     
    #123 Mr T, May 31, 2011
    Last edited: May 31, 2011
  4. solarz
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    solarz Brigadier

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    I think you're being rather disingenuous with this line of reasoning. What do you think is easier: telling someone what projects they need to work on, or telling them that they need to change the way they approach their work?

    As for civilian vs military, how about the fact that the military chain of command is far more rigid? And that military personnelle live separate from the civilian society and do nothing but learn to obey orders all day long?

    And finally, a hypothetical scenario where the CCP leadership itself is split is hardly evidence that the CCP does not have control over the PLA. How did the Zhao Ziyang incident support your point again?


    That's great, I'm sure you can find much more venomous articles published by right-wing US media on the issue of illegal aliens. That STILL doesn't mean the US, or HK, is being "swamped", as you claim.

    Do these pregnant mainland mothers stay in HK after giving birth? Do they get medical treatment for free? If not, how are they "swamping" HK?


    Ummm... no. I see you also subscribe to the western line that the CCP has complete control over anything published in PRC. That's completely untrue, of course. The CCP censorship is reactive, often after materials are published. You probably think the PRC never publishes anything controversial.



    Remember Yuan Shikai and what happened to him? Yeah, that's what happens to warlords that want to create a government by force in China.

    Your second argument could easily be turned around, as CCP political officers are present in every echelon of PLA command. And you also assume, falsely, that just because someone is in the military, he/she must be a warmonger.
     
    #124 solarz, May 31, 2011
    Last edited: May 31, 2011
  5. Spartan95
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    Spartan95 Junior Member

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    Having control means being able to get the organisation to do what the leadership wants it to do. Yet, you are saying that having control does not mean that the leadership can get the said organisation to reform? How does that work again?

    That did not prevent Marshal Lin Biao(林彪), 1 of the most decorated PLA generals, from leading an attempted coup now did it?

    Having a rigid chain of command is exactly what makes it easier to mount coups if a particular general wanted to.

    If there is a split in the CCP leadership (hypothetically, say the President and the Premier had a falling out), who would the PLA listen to since they "do nothing but learn to obey orders all day long"? Whose orders would they take (especially when the CMC itself is split)?

    I take it you didn't read the articles I posted?

    It is clearly stated in the articles that:
    1. some bills go unpaid,
    2. the kids are registered as HK citizens, stay in HK and go to school in HK,
    3. when ~50% of newborns in HK are from PRC mothers.

    How is that not being swamped?

    No. I did not say that.

    General publications and publications authored by senior PLA officers are not the same thing, yet you attempted to lump all these together. Writings by PLA officers are generally published by the PLA. And the PLA is quite strict about what gets published, particularly those events/facts it deems "inconvenient". That's already 1 level of censorship.

    After publication, if it is deemed "unsuitable", it gets recalled (or banned if necessary, such as Zhao Ziyang's memoirs). That's another level of censorship. Yet, no such thing happened to "Unrestricted Warfare".

    Yuan Shikai (袁世凯) died because of disease. He was not tried for war crimes.

    And since we are talking about PLA generals, why not mention Peng Dehuai (彭德怀), a great hero of the Chinese Civil War who was disgraced, beaten up, tortured, exiled and died in ignominy? So much for serving the CCP eh?

    I did not say "that just because someone is in the military, he/she must be a warmonger." That's you putting words in my mouth.

    As for political officers, they certainly didn't prevent Marshal Lin Biao from planning an attempted coup now did they?
     
  6. optionsss
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    optionsss Junior Member

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    In China, the Central Military Commission commands the military, so essentially, the President have almost exclusive command over the military. Premier can not give orders to even low ranking military personal without at least one of the Vice Chairmen of CMC. This was pretty evident during the SiChun earth quake.
    Historically the Chinese military have always been aligned with the command of the President, even during the CPP split. The military stayed on the sidelines when Hu took down the ShangHai party boss, and they stayed on the sideline when Jiang took down the Beijing party boss.
     
  7. Geographer
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    Geographer Junior Member

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    The whole reason people are talking about Hong Kong in a thread about PLAN strategy in the Taiwan Strait is because the Hong Kong SAR example is held out as framework for the reunification of Taiwan. Some have said Hong Kong has gotten worse since 1997 and therefore is unappealing to Taiwan.

    The case of Hong Kong hospitals swamped with PRC babies is a red herring. The Hong Kong economy has prospered immensely since 1997. The stock market has grown immensely. The government runs a budget surplus. Hong Kong's fertility rate is the lowest in the world at 0.9 babies per woman according to Wikipedia. That is lower than even Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Greece, the sickmen of Europe. Hong Kong needs young people to pay taxes and support the elderly. If HK has to choose to between tightening border controls against pregnant women, and diverting funds to hospitals to cover the costs of so many newborn children, it should do the latter. Hong Kong should value more children, not discourage them! Children are a long-term investment in the city's future. The problems of a swelling population should be dealt with by urban planners, not demographers.

    Even if you believe Chinese immigration to HK has been, on balance, a detriment, consider how much larger Taiwan is in both population and territory. It can afford to absorb millions of immigrants without the perceived overcrowding issues Hong Kong faces.
     
  8. Spartan95
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    Spartan95 Junior Member

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    OK, the President and Vice-President split was a bad example.

    A more relevant example will be a split between the Chairman of CMC (a civilian) and the Vice-Chairman of CMC (a general). The litmus test will be who the PLA backs in such a scenario.

    The point about HK hospitals being swamped with PRC babies is that there is public anger over this issue. If you consider that a red herring, that's fine by me. Suffice to say that heavily pregnant women have gathered and marched in public demonstrations on this issue.

    The point about the fertility rate is important because despite having below replacement fertility rate for many years, HK's population has been growing. That's the other part of "being swamped" by people from PRC.

    With regard to urban planning for HK, it seems that the Chief Executive of HK and his administration isn't doing a particularly good job. Housing shortage is a perennial issue. Crime is starting to be an issue. Over-crowding is a serious issue. Pollution is also an issue. To be fair, HK has done well for big businesses. But the perceived benefits of economic growth doesn't seem to have trickled down to the masses.

    That's hardly an attractive case for the masses in RoC.
     
  9. Geographer
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    Geographer Junior Member

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    I am curious as to why this is. Why isn't the market responding to demand by building more apartment skyscrapers? I know HK has a lot of green space off limits to developed but they also have a lot of low-density in the outer areas, away from the Kowloon CBD. Is it a question of the government not approving building permits? HK is supposed to have a famously free market so this appears to be a market failure. What's going on?
     
  10. MwRYum
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    MwRYum Captain

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    That's because the luxury flats, the profits this field generates, and the potential revenue the government can reap that caused the squeezing effect on the common folks...if you compare with Singapore, HK housing policy is a bloody failure.

    And being a free market as it is the developers have no incentives to build "entry / mid-level" housing that the common folks can afford, because they won't profit much from it. If that's not the worse enough, developers in HK have grown into super monsters that have reaches into every fabric in HK economy, so big they're that the gov't listen to them almost literally.

    It's pretty hopeless for the common folks, and no surprise this make the HK model very bad sell to Taiwan, despite they only got clowns to vote into office...at least there's the illusion of control (you can use vote to kick that clown from his/her seat) by the people.
     
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