Jeff, do you still update your blog?
PLAN Sovremenny DDG Refit/Modernization
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
Jeff, do you still update your blog?
Which one?
The PLAN blog gets a major update every year. I will do the 2017 Update in December, or January.
I update my political site quite often...but do not post any of that here.
I also update my worldwide Aircraft Carriers, AEGIS Vessels, etc. too.
Not to mention my Jeff Head's 1/350 Scale Model Shop Site.
The China military one.
Lethe
Captain
12x 055 suggests you are looking at 2025 timeframe, there will almost certainly be a new frigate design by then. The follow-on to 056 could well be a blue-water capable light frigate in the 2500-3000 ton class, similar to Damen's SIGMA 10514 design for Indonesia, or Taiwan's future frigate, which would be included in the list as well.
More like the 2030 timeframe, which means that the Sovs, 051B, and 052 will have all been retired by then, leaving only the oddballs 051C and 052B still in service alongside the 052C/Ds and 055s. They might even decide to retire these two classes a few years early to simplify the logistics chain.
Lethe
Captain
My own working assumption is for 2 055s to be commissioned by 2020, with 2 per year thereafter, so 12 units by 2025 and 22 by 2030.
That said I thought Jeff Head was part of the group that thinks 055 is a limited production flagship type to supplement continuing 052x production, rather than a Chinese Arleigh Burke-class replacing 052x like I think it is. So that makes projecting a dozen 055s in the same timeframe that even upgraded Sovs/052B etc. could still be considered relevant somewhat strange.
I don't understand why it's such a popular belief that a massive ship like the 12,000 to 13,000 ton Type 055 will be the main surface combatant of the PLAN when even the USN with a far bigger budget and far greater worldwide commitments does not have such a grandiose ambition. A long term build rate of 2 052D/Es and 1 055/As per year is a far more likely scenario IMO. You may have a few years early on where the 055 will play catchup given how many 052 series ships are already in the water and be constructed 2/year, but I believe that the long term trend of 055X:052X will be 1:3 or thereabouts.
I believe the Type 055 will be similar in function to the US Tcionderoga AEGIS Cruiser. The US has 22 of them.
I believe that the Type 052D will be more similar to the US Burke Class.
I would not be surprised to see the PLAN build 24 or more Type 052D.
I would not be surprised to see them build 18 of the Type 055.
But time will tell.
Lethe
Captain
But USN would prefer a larger vessel. In the short-term they are limited to a further evolution of the Arleigh Burke-class because their DD21 plans fell in a heap, remember? That doesn't mean USN considers Flight III to be ideal for its requirements anymore than China considers Liaoning to be ideal for its requirements.
As the mission set expands, as the budget expands, as more and more capabilities and emerging technologies are built into the ships -- they get bigger. The cost comes from the capabilities that are built into the ship, not the size of the hull itself. Arleigh Burke set the benchmark for large surface combatants back in its day -- that is to say in the 1990s -- and now thirty years later 055 will set the equivalent benchmark for the 2020s.
Yes, as you said, their DD21 plans fell into a heap. Why? Too expensive, too many "emerging technologies". Why is the USN proceeding with the Flight III AB? Because it's cost-effective. And this is coming from a country that spends several times more on its navy than China does. You think cost is not an issue for the PLAN that it can afford dozens of 12-13k ton cruisers as its primary surface combatants? I have said before that the 052D iteration has reached the ultimate limit of the baseline hull's capabilities, and that a 052E class will be (somewhat) bigger. Almost twice as big, like the 055? I just don't think so. You want the PLAN to outpeacock basically every last navy in the world, including the USN, but I seriously doubt the PLAN has the same goal. It's bounded by more realistic and boring constraints like money and mission requirements.