Haha, alright then I won't push the matter
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on a different subject, I'd like to pose a hypothetical situation in the near future in SCS. China has finished reclaiming its islands, and on one of the islands, say the Fiery Cross reef airstrip, they have decided to deploy a small contingent of fighter aircraft. Let's say half a regiment of J-10s or flankers.
No ADIZ is declared, but Chinese aircraft are there now and flying over the SCS in international air space and escorting various USN surveillance aircraft that approach the Chinese islands with the same kind of warnings we see today ("this is chinese navy, you are entering military zone, please leave"... something of that respect)
Jeff, do you think the US will allow China to develop the islands to such a degree, and what can they do to stop China? That is to say, even if they do sail ships and fly aircraft within the 12 nmi limit, they cannot physically stop the reclamation activities unless they board, intercept and/or sink the various ships conducting the reclamation work, which would obviously be considered as an escalation by China and likely lead to a military crisis if not regional war.
The second question is, if China does manage to develop the islands to this degree, what can the US do -- in other words what are the US's goals -- outside of enforcing its position on FON, in your opinion?
The second question has been bugging me for quite a while, because unless the US draws a red line for itself and is willing to enforce with consequences, the alternative is that China will inevitably continue with its operations and deployment patterns in future. While I do not believe a small SCS airbase will be of great military utility in a hypothetical no-punches-drawn military conflict between China and any military with decent long range land attack capabilities, the airbase would allow China to deploy limited air power in a relatively uncontested way during peacetime. I say uncontested, again, because unless the island and air strip/base itself are bombed or occupied by another force or made inoperable by other means (say a natural disaster/tsunami), then China will likely continue with whatever deployment pattern it ends up with.
I don't doubt the US would seek to advance partnerships with other nations in the SCS, and China would likely try to draw nations away from it, but as far as I can see there's little the US can do short of risking a military conflict with China in actually stopping the island reclamation and future operations or deployment of whatever the islands are used for.
Would my analysis be fairly accurate?
