PLAN SCS Bases/Islands/Vessels (Not a Strategy Page)

Discussion in 'Navy' started by lilzz, Mar 6, 2008.

  1. ougoah
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    ougoah Senior Member
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    Talking up their Su-30s and Kilos have deluded many gullible nationalists into thinking they stand half a chance. This unsubstantiated sense of ability have convinced many that Vietnam can actually fight and hold off China. Just like many think India can do the same and Australia too. Fantasy self-reassuring is what it truly is because so far we've been hearing this sort of stuff for many years now but strangely enough, they all just keep talking about how they are able to do this and that and the only reason they don't follow through is not because of their real incapability but rather because they are just too civil and nice :rolleyes: Crafty buggers the lot of them. Can't win the real fight, must win the trashtalking so they lick their self-inflicted wounds through words of mutual encouragement and self-assurance and try to convince themselves and each other that they can continue to mistreat and bully China. Humans are truly pathetic worms. An honest and decent man among that group is hard to find. Even the US knows all bets are off in a war so trade war is their most daring effort to date. It's worked against Russia in the past so they are trying to replicate it with China.
     
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  2. Gloire_bb
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    Gloire_bb Junior Member
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    Yes. Being capable of one fight doesn't mean being capable to fight another. Especially when you never actually tried.
    If the US failed, - and it did, - there are very big reasons to think twice about "easy".
    Inconvenient geography and political configurations matter as much as pure strength numbers.
    For pure numbers doesn't matter, what matters is what you can apply effectively.
    Different examples. Some of them were succesful, some were not. More often than not, though, it wasn't exactly simple. Especially when significant parts of Chinese forces weren't local southern ones.
    Carpet bombing cities? Ok. Smart choice. Do you really want only Zimbabwe to support China?
    And btw, mentioning h-6 in context of ancient technology is an interesting choice. Vietnam has more modern SAMs, what these bombers can not realistically hope to handle. I mean s-300s and spyders. There are strong rumors about s-400, too.
    Please don't forget, what Vietnam was excluded from sanction list for buying weapons in Russia, too.
    It means what the US. are really intended to improve their relationship. Weapon deliveries have already started.
    Geography matters. simple stand off hunting/killing small assets in a hilly terrain covered by thick forests is a thing of the future, as is hunting out dispersed small surface combatants in an extremely unsuitable coastline, with necessity to fly quite far in a hostile airspace to even rich them.
    Admittedly, not a very far future, for a first time in history, but definetely not "now". Any degree of certainity in easily hunting down submarines in contested waters is delusional. asw effors are never certain. Especiall so, when your own asw assets are easily targetable.

    Of course. Question is, what to hit with them. Viet military learned in a hard way how to disperse and blend with the ground.
    China has much more obvious targets, some of which won't run away(Island military infrastructure), and others will find unavoidable to risk themselves to fight Vietnam due to the geography.
    Or bomb civilians, like Ougoah proposed? This has too many consequences to calculate, depending on the scenario.
    Up to intervention of third parties with the worst possible configuration for China.
    to put it bluntly - Russia, as obvious of a Chinese ally in any anty-US effort as it is, will be almost guaranteed to be put in the corner by this mess, for pro-Vietnamese nostalgia is still strong there(not against China, but simple friendliness). And we are talking outright about the only REALLY meaningful Chinese ally(sorry, Pakistan). Is it worth it, to show off 20 bombers with design tracing itself back to Stalin era?
    Region already is full of strong militaries with close ties to the US. Depending on political configuration and public outcry, they can become openly hostile, tying a big chunk of Chinese forces elsewhere.

    So, in summ:
    Conflict mustn't be protracted, must be limited in its scale, and must whenever possible avoid producing a bad picture. At the same time, other nations must be kept in check.
    Is it winnable for China under suc restrictions? well, yes. Is it desirable to avoid such a conflict, because its results are not nearly as certain as many want to think? yes, too.

    and, btw, current war history gas an exact example, when even a very weak military managed to hold away unproportionally strong coalition, covered by full power of world media. With much worse force ratio, much simpler geography, and in much starker tech level imbalance. Yemen.
     
    #3112 Gloire_bb, Nov 17, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2018
  3. gelgoog
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    gelgoog Senior Member
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    Vietnam has more population than Germany. They have been technologically backwards but their economy has grown a lot over the past decade. Still, of course, their GDP per capita remains behind China's. Ever since the USA restored relations with them they can buy both Western and Russian equipment. They have some limited amounts of high-tech weapons like the T-90 tank, the Su-30 fighter bomber, the Kilo submarine, etc. They recently started programs to replace their small arms. For example they will replace their AKs with the IWI ACE 31/32 rifle. Supposedly they spend 8% of their government income in the military which is nothing to sneeze at. But of course it has a much smaller economy than China.
     
  4. ougoah
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    ougoah Senior Member
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    Do you think Vietnam will have a single operating SAM before H-6 come in? They could bomb with Q-5s and there will be no resistance from Vietnam because 1. All SAMs are gone and removed by SEAD, cruise missile, and artillery, and air superiority is guaranteed because whatever VAF sends to fight PLAAF will be as easy as USAF and USN wiping out Iraq's airforce. So if Vietnam cannot import and receive any more SAMs and their airforce is finished, how will they stop ancient H-6? It becomes about as effective as a B-2 if there are fighter escorts. Manpads don't have reach or range.

    Also we are talking about Vietnam starting a fight with China and China having no choice. In this hypothetical it is supremely easy for China to win and do as they wish if Vietnam starts the fight. What I'm saying is they are not stupid enough to do this or escalate any small skirmishes into a fight where China will take some hits but will make it worthwhile like Manxue said. The only difference if China starts the fight would be being hard to justify brutal use of force without huge international backlash. Whenever Americans or Russians come in to carpet bomb cities, they also warn the civilians. If Vietnam wants a war, their civilians better be prepared to leave cities and areas China wants to take.

    We can talk about 20th century style warfare all we want but reality is that VAF is no match for PLAAF. Once PLAAF takes air superiority and PLAN holds VN back (quite a bit more likely that PLAN sinks entire VN with minimal if any loses), there will be easy SEAD missions and then send in artillery forces to clear VA. UAVs and gunships can be sent in to support armoured vehicles. There will be little stopping PLA. Vietnam has the stockpiles to fight for about 2 days or so if that before running out of bombs, missiles, and shells. It would be about as fair and difficult a fight as USA against Iraq. Which is exactly why Vietnam won't get into one. I didn't say bomb civilians. I said warn civilians but take land if they want to a war, China will make it worthwhile. You can't go in and force civilians out so bombing cities and any land is only option in this unfortunate situation and warning them means they can choose to either leave and live or stay and get bombed. This is the consequence of Vietnam going to war with China. Egg trying to throw itself against rock. Please don't make it sound like I'm advocating killing civilians because you ignored the context, highlighted again. Again to reiterate, Vietnam is guaranteed to lose a war so they won't dare risk such a sorry situation from happening.
     
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  5. ougoah
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    ougoah Senior Member
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    Vietnam and China are both supposedly socialist led nations and both are racially one people with a lot of common ancestry in the border regions if not far beyond. We have similar enough cultures and values. It would be a shame to have a war. No Chinese wants a deliberate escalation to that point. All we're saying is in a hypothetical war that Vietnam either forces or starts, China will definitely make it worth their loses and take land. Why would China spend billions and lose men and equipment just to completely wipe out Vietnam's military and then go back to pre-war status? If a price is paid, a benefit will be taken. Especially when there will be nothing left to force China to stop. Vietnam defeating China in the 21st century is about as likely as Mexico taking over USA.

    USA won't assist because it has nothing to gain from assisting while taking the risk and troubles of going to war with China... over Vietnam?? No one is that much a dreamer. Nor will India or Japan for that matter.

    China won't start a war unless provoked into one. Proven easily. It will lose so much PR around the world if it did, there would be no point in gaining any little territory. It hasn't yet either despite conditions far in China's favour. So it will unlikely go into war unless Vietnam pushes beyond certain points. They will know the consequences and then back off. This is 100% going to be the case. The only variable is USA. If USA ever decides on military action against China, all these other guys will probably follow. It is USA + military partners vs China in that case and all of them will have painted themselves as nuclear targets when China inevitably loses the conventional war. This is why war with China is unlikely at worst.

    The ball is in Vietnam's court and so far just barking around and waiting for USA to act. They don't dare make an aggressive move. You are here telling us how Vietnam will be hard nut to crack. Well we can agree to disagree since the main arguments for both perspectives have more or less been expressed. I fail to see how 20th century tactics can help in this day and age.
     
    #3115 ougoah, Nov 17, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2018
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  6. manqiangrexue
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    manqiangrexue Captain

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    Use satellites to find jets, take them out with LACM, either from China or from 052D/055. The couple of Su-30s don't hide that well.
    Modern equipment doesn't have locality.
    H-6? Not the thing to start with. Cruise missiles from China and launched from China's Navy will have to devastate Vietnamese forces and take out their SAMs before the PLAAF begins operations. Hey, if they fight with China, they better get all their civilians away from their military or we won't be responsible. Allies or not, win the war and go from there.
    Satellite find --> missile strike from 1,000km or more away. Guam killer missiles have even more range and punch than cruise missiles. Chinese assets are target-able by what? The systems that they have that are on fire already from Chinese missile strikes? Chinese artillery corps will make it hell on earth in Vietnam before the PLAAF or PLA begin operations. I don't know why you keep thinking that hiding a small number of legacy systems in the jungle will make a small country defeat a superpower. It complicates things, but they only delay the inevitable.
    Is it worth it, you ask? Is it worth it for the Vietnamese to have their country bombed upside down 15 times, large border territories siezed and have everyone set on fire to fight China, the only country that can bring honor and power to Asia? I have no idea what the hell the circumstances are for "worth it" or why we are talking about China vs. Vietnam. Nothing suggests to me that we are even headed in that direction. But is it worth it? Depends on what those circumstances are. If Vietnam has made it worth it for China to do this to them, then it's worth it. If not, and it's far from being worth it today, then there will remain peace.
     
    #3116 manqiangrexue, Nov 17, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2018
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  7. Untoldpain
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    Untoldpain New Member
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    This is all around a ridiculous discussion. The chance of an armed conflict between Vietnam and China is close to zero, and nothing thus far has pointed remotely to that direction. The Vietnamese leadership are quite aware that if a conflict break out in the maritime domain, they will lose each and every single one of their holdings in the SCS. They are also under no illusion that any one will be coming to their aid, especially having Crimea in the rear view mirror. All evidence thus far points to a diplomatic solution, however begrudgingly the Vietnamese may be while at it.
     
  8. Bhurki
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    Bhurki Junior Member
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    The vietnamese might be proud of their past of defending against the americans, but the fact of reality is that if they want to maintain good relations with Beijing in the future and avoid conflict , they'll have to assume the same diplomatic stature with it as the phillippines ( Duterte) i.e.don't act too smart...
     
  9. ougoah
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    ougoah Senior Member
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    Vietnam and China are forever next to each other. They cannot escape China and China cannot escape them, making the disagreements more frustrating. At the moment, there are no great way of resolving these sort of disputes. Unfortunately some of them decided to act against China first by citing reasons other colonialists gave who live on the other side of the globe. Why didn't the two just ignore their previous colonial rulers and establish foundations for good relations with other Asian nations like China? Surely it isn't because of the whole communist government thing. That's just a convenient excuse. Since China's fall in the 19th and 20th centuries, all the colonialists and then neighbouring nations have been chipping away at China. Now that the "sleeping giant" has re-awakened, they are calling China the bully, when it is the others who have been taking advantage of a previously weak China and now it is China re-asserting itself and claiming what it has ALWAYS considered its sovereignty. It is imperative to reverse the colonialist brainwashing of Asia before we can hope to establish some working diplomacy for resolving such conflicts.
     
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  10. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Senior Member
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    When Vietnam was fighting France or the USA, it could always rely on men and material supplied from China.

    In a hypothetical China-Vietnam conflict, Vietnam can be effectively blockaded. Laos and Cambodia are aligned more with China, and Chinese bases can control all the sea approaches to Vietnam. There is no need to invade.

    And bluntly speaking, the Chinese military is training for much tougher adversary in Taiwan which is way tougher in terms of navy and air force.

    I give it a maximum of 2weeks before China could obtain air and martimem superiority over Vietnam. That is enough to achieve the political objective
     
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