PLAN SCS Bases/Islands/Vessels (Not a Strategy Page)

Discussion in 'Navy' started by lilzz, Mar 6, 2008.

  1. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Senior Member
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    Have you actually looked at how capable the Vietnamese military is?

    Vietnam only has 80 fighter jets, of which only half could be called modern.

    China can easily obtain air superiority over Northern Vietnam.
    That accounts for half of Vietnam's population and includes the capital city Hanoi.
     
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  2. Gloire_bb
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    Gloire_bb Junior Member
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    Excuse me, but please look at the map. Both ranges involved are shorter, and communications configuration clearly favors Vietnam. More than that, it shamelessly uses it, having significant parts of SCS covered by cruise missile fire.
    Vietnam has quite an advantage here, which is countered only through huge power imbalance and //partially// a novel approach to island reclamation.
    P.s. subs are only partially the same. Kilos changed quite a lot since even the 1990s.
    Oh, not like it hasn't happened with Vietnam in the modern history before.
    Apart from fighter jets, Vietnam has quite a significant SAM network, respectable fleet of missile corvettes, favourable for this conflict coastline, climate and geography.
    And fighters, fighters are being replaced.
    The aim for Vietnam isn't to capture China, it is to be a tough nut to crack.
    It has proven itself in this regard, more than once.
     
  3. manqiangrexue
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    manqiangrexue Captain

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    Vietnam does have a track record of being a tough nut to crack, but they also have a record of being dominated by foreign powers, especially China AND the most recent record of having its islands seized by force by the PLAN when the technology gap between them was much worse for China than it is now. If China comes into this like the Americans, arrogantly and planing to win with minimal involvement, this could get ugly. If China escalates little by little and confines the conflict giving Vietnam chance after chance expecting them to surrender, this could be bad. But if China goes in there ready to proactively hunt ALL Vietnamese assets down and destroy them with overwhelming force, if China plans to strike viciously with sustained forward momentum without offering them any chance to withdraw until they surrender, if China makes it clear that a conflict will not be contained and that all Vietnamese territory will be up for grabs if they dare fight, then there is no chance for Vietnam to win anything.

    When you fight a pugnacious little teenager, if you are civil to him and try to subdue him with as little harm to him as possible, he can cause you injury. He can bite you, scratch/poke your eyes, kick your nuts, headbutt your nose. But if you go in with heavy punches to his face, grab him by the throat and head-slam him into the ground, then step on his neck with your full body-weight, and most importantly, if you keep hitting him hard without giving him breaks by stopping to ask if he's ready to stop and behave, then a kid is a kid; he'll lose in no time and he'll be crying in submission fast.

    Same thing with Vietnam; they can play games but they can't withstand modern high-intensity all out conflict for any respectable duration.

    But I like Vietnam and would hate for it to come to that. They should understand the Asian dream and work together with China to achieve it.
     
    #3103 manqiangrexue, Nov 16, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2018
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  4. ougoah
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    ougoah Senior Member
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    The problem is China will be considered the aggressor. It will be viewed by the entire world as China abusing its size to bully a smaller nation and the source of the issue is China according to that narrative so any conflict will be a PR disaster for China. Vietnam has that going for it. An actual fight? Even a confined effort from China is more than enough. Vietnamese equipment is very well understood by China.

    I think the only issue would be the gun fighting because they'll lose every single heavy asset as soon as they decide to expose it out in an actual fight. But this isn't the 20th century and gunfighting using guerrilla tactics is over. That was the only reason Vietnam was ever "hard to crack". It can be cracked within a day in this age. In an actual escalated war between the two, China will not be kind enough to be surgical and risk its forces and equipment. It will be a carpet bombing slaughter. Warn the citizens to get the F out because twenty H-6 are on the way and air superiority was gained within the first few hours and all Viet SAMs are bombed if not jammed due to being 60s era technology.

    Few Chinese want this but Vietnam pushing for military solution will only see its own downfall. It thinks too highly of its defense against the US and China in the past. This is a different age and Vietnamese military capabilities have not improved much from then. The rate of technological improvement far exceeds their ability to acquire the latest.
     
    #3104 ougoah, Nov 16, 2018
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  5. Gloire_bb
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    Gloire_bb Junior Member
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    Last big attempt to subdue Vietnam hasn't subdued it, if i remember correctly. More of a protracted and rather indecisive bloody mess in the jungles.

    There is a common military legend called "if not for those damn politicians, we would...". If not for those damn politicians, we would have a disaster. There are very big reasons, why we always try to achieve only limited aims, with as few assets as possible.

    No, the problem here is exactly what there is no way to crush Vietnam fast. Geography(stretching away from China latitudally) , climate and conditions, messy infrastructure toppled with a very large army, accustomed to fighting in these conditions.
    Main vulnerabilty of Viernam - extended coastline, lack of strategic depth in a longtitudal axis - not only isn't as exploitable by modern Chinese navy due to its insufficient forced entry capability as of now, is additionally extremely covered for by extensive vietnamese ASCM(LACM) capability and recently bought submarines. Neither is overcomable by a simple superiority in numbers, being very distinctive guerilla-type assets. So is SAM network.
    Worth adding, what all these assets were sbown to be easily transportable between mainland and islands.

    Furthermore, while not exactly thw largest, vietnamese airforce is perhaps the most well known example of dispersed use of its assets, and, as far as i know, this experience wasn't thrown away. Nor it can't expand if really threatened: we are talking about quite a populous country here, with more than enough money for a respectable defensive order of battle.

    Finally, while it isn't a political topic, but still.
    Not only the traditional "friends of China" will make their presence known in every way possible(happened before, assuming lack of direct interference), even actually friendly nations(Russia) will be put to a very avkward position by your "decisiveness". And those weaker will just run away, because the only message you will send to them is one of fear.

    Overall: i wouldn't underestimate Vietnam for just its size.
     
  6. manqiangrexue
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    manqiangrexue Captain

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    Of course. China would never even want to bully an Asian neighbor like that. Any sleights that ASEAN countries suffered from China in the SCS is completely self-inflicted by their thinking that a foreign power like the US could be brought in to withdraw China. Without that, China would be happy to share everything and prosper with them. But the unpleasantness that sometimes occurs are a necessary punishment for them when they think they can lean on the US in Asia. Once they realize that a stronger China in the world means a stronger Asia in the world and that they would all profit tremendously from working China for that goal, everything will be smoother than butter.

    That said, things would have to go wayy south for this conflict to occur. Vietnam would have to have done something far over the line. Short of that, China will work with them. But if that day comes, then China must make sure to take more in territory from Vietnam than what the entire world could withhold from China in the backlash.
     
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  7. ougoah
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    ougoah Senior Member
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    It's really just Philippines and Vietnam, and even then, not even their entire populations... not even close.

    I think these issues can be resolved diplomatically much to the fear of the US. Duterte has been open minded enough re China. Vietnam knows it's much too dangerous to risk a confrontation because so far it is questionable any major power will come to their aid and directly go to war with China. The reason they don't just let China have its way is because neither trusts China. Vietnam has quite a history with Imperial China. Philippines can take a hike. Their right to islands and seas is laughable because it is non-existent historically and is entirely based off some unilateral decision sourced from the colonial era of Asia. If they insist on a fight, they will need 100% support from USA otherwise they would fare worse than Vietnam. A handful of subs and anti-sub missions with a couple of 052Ds and the two carriers can handle their entire military force with absolute ease.
     
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  8. ougoah
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    ougoah Senior Member
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    That is a different era. There is much less need for gun battles. Just like how WW2 showed weapons and developments that changed trench warfare style of WW1. Technology is improving at an increasing rate of improvement. You simply cannot say because Vietnam has fought off major powers using guerrilla warfare in the past, it can do again today. There won't be much need. Gunships and drones can gun down soldiers with ease. Tanks are numerous and good enough these days to sense hidden snipers in the trees. There won't be a fair fight between the two, it will be cold blooded murder of Vietnamese soldiers because Chinese drone operators will be strafing through a screen.

    I can guarantee you this. Aside from these other nations barking at China and talking tough. Not a single one will fire a shot at China. If they do, they will get flatlined and anyone coming in to mess around may receive giga-tonnes worth of consequences. Bullies only bark at those who can defend themselves and fight. They never bark at the weak, they just go right in and fight. When Russia annexed Crimea and when they fought Georgia, there was much tough talk from NATO but when Russia called their bluff, they disappeared like a fart in the wind. Not a single coward was barking that day nor will they if anyone is stupid enough to actually fight China. So basically we have been hearing all the barking and toughtalk about how Chinese quality is shit and military equipment will fall apart in a war and so a war against China is easy blah blah blah. They'll never dare actually fight but if they do one day, they will be crying the next about how China bullied them rather than admit they went in knowing about consequences.
     
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  9. manqiangrexue
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    manqiangrexue Captain

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    What last big attempt? There was none. That was exactly what I meant by a half-baked attempt. The US never fought full force and they never had the geographical advantages China does. If you think Vietnam can't be crushed fast, it's because you have it confused with Russia or you are clinging to the history that Vietnam survived the American invasion. But history actually has many more examples of the Vietnamese being successfully conquered and subdued. Vietnam's meager modern military assets can definitely be hunted down and killed quickly. Satellites can be recruited to hunt them with missiles targeting anywhere all over Vietnam generously to kill these assets. China is preparing to take on the USAF; you think the Vietnamese Air Force is gonna be an issue? Whatever LACM they have, China has much much more and China should not enter this conflict thinking that there will be no damage to Chinese territory. They should just know that they will take back much much more than they will suffer in damage. Any "experience" the Vietnamese had of 1969 warfare is not relevant to 2018. China can seize its territories close to China and never return them; that was never a goal for the US. As for populous countries, you are joking; against China, there is no populous country.

    Even though the US was ultimately defeated in Vietnam, the Vietnamese suffered horrendous tragedies and injustices. They had no choice; the Americans invaded their homes. This time, for some uninhabited islands, with the memory of how terrible it is to fight a war against a superpower even if it means winning in the end, do you think Vietnam will fight China unless China literally leaves them with no options? How about if China were to remind them in private of what would happen to them again?

    I do not underestimate Vietnam; I said China must fight them with determination and decisiveness rather than arrogance and reserve in order to win. I even said that the Chinese must be ready to suffer damage. That's as much credit as you can give them. Any more and you would be putting them on a pedestal for one historical event.

    As I replied to ougoah, the political backlash will be considerable. But if Vietnam really wants to push China to fight, then China can only make sure to take from Vietnam much more than any backlash can inflict.

    I'm sorry, why are we talking about China vs. Vietnam? This is ridiculous as nothing in recent news implies to me that that is a possibility or that things are even moving south between the neighbors.
     
    #3109 manqiangrexue, Nov 16, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2018
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  10. vincent
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    vincent Senior Member

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    US was too afraid of China sending another "volunteer" force into Vietnam to invade the North, and China provided huge amount of material and technical support to the North Vietnamese. If another shooting war happens, who can provide the logistical support to the Vietnamese now?
     
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